Foreign actors will be quick to amplify false narratives after Election Day: ODNI

Foreign actors will probably be quick to amplify false narratives in the period after Election Day in order to sow doubts about the security of the election, according to national security officials.

“The [intelligence community] assessment says that even after the polls close, the goals of foreign actors, particularly Russia, Iran and China, toward the election will persist and they will remain committed to trying to undermine U.S. democracy, stoke societal unrest and position their preferred candidates,” according to an official with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) who briefed reporters during a call on Tuesday.

The influence operations are expected to continue through Inauguration Day, according to the ODNI official.

“These actors probably perceive that undermining confidence in the election weakens the legitimacy of our democracy and consequently makes the United States less capable of effectively pursuing policies that are counter to [the foreign actors’] interests,” the ODNI official said.

A seven-page, partially redacted document released by the ODNI said that each step of the process – from counting the votes, to certification, and even Inauguration Day ceremonies – is susceptible to foreign influence operations.

“Foreign actors such as China, Iran and Russia have previously sought to amplify discord, including after the breach of the U.S. Capitol on 6 January 2021 and probably are now better prepared to exploit opportunities after the polls close than in previous cycles,” the assessment says.

On Jan. 7, 2021, a Russian official directed Russian media to disparage the U.S. and as a result posted propaganda online doing just that, according to the assessment.

Intelligence community officials have previously assessed that Russia prefers former President Donald Trump, Iran favors Vice President Kamala Harris, and China is focused on down-ballot races and will not attempt to conduct influence operations in the presidential race.

If Vice President Kamala Harris is declared the winner of the presidential election, ODNI officials expect that Russia will be “more aggressive” in attempting to sow chaos in the United States, the official said, adding that Russia is “considering and in some cases implementing a broad range of influence efforts timed with the election.”

For example, a few weeks ago, there were some posts on the social media platform X that claimed Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who is the Democratic nominee for vice president, had inappropriate relations with a student when he was a teacher. Those fabricated posts were part of a Russian influence operation, according to ODNI officials.

“The intelligence community assessed that Russian influence actors created and amplified content alleging inappropriate activity committed by the Democratic vice presidential candidate during his earlier career. The intelligence community reviewed media associated with this effort and, in doing so, it revealed several indicators of manipulation that are consistent with the influence efforts and tactics of Russian actors this cycle,” the ODNI official said.

Officials had intelligence to suggest the Russians “manufactured and amplified the content,” the official said.

Intelligence officials also assessed that Russia and Iran could possibly attempt to encourage violence in the aftermath of the election.

“Iran and Russia are probably willing to at least consider tactics that would contribute to such violence,” according to the ODNI official. “Foreign adversaries have demonstrated a willingness to encourage participation in non-election related protests and may extend this practice to any potential violent protests.”

In the same reporters' call Tuesday, a Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) official assessed that “the tactics used to undermine confidence in the democratic institutions can lead to violence, even if not deliberately called for.”