Gun debate approaches now-or-never moment: The Note

The TAKE with Rick Klein

The deadlines for a compromise remain soft. But the contours of the gun debate have never come into sharper focus -- and may not again for the foreseeable future.

It's hard to imagine a more favorable confluence of events for those heeding President Joe Biden's plea to "do something" to address the horrific spate of recent gun violence.

Bipartisan Senate talks are not only still alive but are thriving, as the emotions and passions around this moment have only grown more intense. There's Biden's focus as well as the relative silence of the gun lobby and -- for now at least -- former President Donald Trump.

Perhaps more importantly was the moment the Biden White House helped generate with Matthew McConaughey, who told the story of children killed in his hometown of Uvalde, Texas, from the perspective of a man familiar with gun culture.

"Come to the common table that represents the American people," the actor said from the White House press briefing room podium on Tuesday. "Find a middle ground -- the place where most of us Americans live anyway. Especially on this issue."

On Wednesday, hours before the House votes on a package of gun-control measures, national attention will fall on families and witnesses of recent attacks. Testifying on Capitol Hill will be 11-year-old Miah Cerrillo, who will recount how she covered herself in a classmate's blood so the gunman who rampaged through her school would think she was dead.

Anxieties have already turned to what can't pass the Senate and what Democrats appear to be conceding to Republicans to get something together that can.

But if this moment is the one that defies predictions about how nothing will change, it's almost certainly going to have to happen quickly from here.

The RUNDOWN with Averi Harper

San Francisco’s successful recall of its district attorney proved to be a stark warning on the issue of crime in one of the country’s most liberal cities.

Chesa Boudin, a former public defender, who ran on a platform focused on addressing mass incarceration and reforming the criminal justice system, has been sent packing by San Francisco voters. Critics attacked his practices, including the elimination of cash bail and refusal to charge juveniles as adults.

“I don’t believe [voters] ever thought that ending mass incarceration or reform would mean lawlessness in this city,” said Brooke Jenkins, a former San Francisco assistant district attorney, who described Boudin’s practices as “excessively lenient.”

While San Francisco has long endured crimes like thefts from vehicles and robberies from businesses, this recall can be considered a reflection of current concerns about crime and how those concerns are reaching far beyond the city’s limits.

Boudin’s recall could be interpreted as a referendum on progressive prosecutors. Plus, it could signal issues for Democrats as conservatives frame the party as soft on crime.

The TIP with Alisa Wiersema

In less than a week, some Texas voters will head to the polls for a third time this election season to cast ballots in a special race for the 34th Congressional District -- but the winner will be its representative for just a few months until November's contest. The messy electoral timeline was caused by former Rep. Filemon Vela's decision to resign in March in order to work in the private sector after having already announced he would not seek reelection the year before.

Although South Texas went through some of the most notable redistricting changes across the state this year, this special election will be held within the borders of Vela's old district, which was more competitive than its newly drawn form. Meanwhile, November's general election will be held within the new, bluer boundaries of the 34th District.

The situation creates a sped-up political calendar for candidates already in the running, while also offering Republicans the opportunity to flex their growing popularity in the heavily Latino area. Meanwhile, national GOP groups appear to be going all in on the possibility of upending Democrats' head start ahead of the general election and are pouring money into the race.

Republican Mayra Flores -- who was already in the running for the new 34th and has won her primary for the general election -- entered the special election race with a jab at Vela, saying he was "abandoning" his district "while we have a crisis on our border and families can't afford groceries and gas because prices are so high." Flores is at the forefront of national GOP support and is armed with the backing of the National Republican Campaign Committee and the Congressional Leadership Fund, who have launched ads to bolster her candidacy.

The same cannot be said for national Democratic groups, which have not invested in the special election at a similar pace. The disparity could create a precarious situation in the long run for Democrats working to retain one of Texas' few blue strongholds. Vela's fellow Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez -- an incumbent from the bordering 15th Congressional District -- is competing in the general election for the 34th. But unlike Flores, he is not running in the special election and is instead throwing his support behind Democratic candidate Dan Sanchez.

NUMBER OF THE DAY, powered by FiveThirtyEight

14. That's the number of percentage points that separate Republicans and Democrats on the question of whether they "strongly" or "somewhat" support universal background checks, according to a March 6-8 Morning Consult/Politico poll. In total, though, 77% of Republicans and 91% of Democrats said they supported universal background checks. Test your knowledge on just how far apart the two parties are on gun control in our interactive quiz that looks at eight different gun violence prevention policies and how Democrats and Republicans feel about this issue.

THE PLAYLIST

ABC News' "Start Here" Podcast. "Start Here" begins Wednesday morning with the latest on Congress' gun legislation talks from ABC's Rachel Scott. Then, ABC's Tom Burridge breaks down the struggle to release Ukraine's grain supply. And, ABC's Jay O'Brien reports on fallout from Florida's threat to fine the Special Olympics over its coronavirus vaccine mandate. http://apple.co/2HPocUL http://apple.co/2HPocUL

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY

• At 11:15 a.m. ET, President Joe Biden will depart the White House en route for Joint Base Andrews before heading to Los Angeles, where he'll land at 1:30 p.m. ET.
• Press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and national security adviser Jake Sullivan will gaggle aboard Air Force One en route to L.A.
• The president will tape an appearance on "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" at 2:40 p.m. ET.
• At 4 p.m. ET the president will greet with heads of delegations at the Ninth Summit of the Americas.
• At 5:15 p.m. ET the president and first lady Jill Biden will participate in the inaugural ceremony of the Ninth Summit of the Americas, where he will deliver remarks.
• The House Oversight and Reform Committee will convene at 10 a.m. ET for a hearing on the need to address the gun violence epidemic. It will feature witnesses including an Uvalde shooting victim's parents, Felix and Kimberly Rubio, Miah Cerrillo and Eric Adams, the mayor of New York City.
• The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will convene at 10 a.m. ET for a hearing to examine the path forward on U.S.-Syria policy, focusing on strategy and accountability.

Download the ABC News app and select "The Note" as an item of interest to receive the day's sharpest political analysis.

The Note is a daily ABC News feature that highlights the day's top stories in politics. Please check back Thursday for the latest.