Hispanic people favor Harris, but with opportunities for Trump: ANALYSIS

Racial and ethnic groups divide sharply in trust to handle key issues in the 2024 presidential election, with Hispanic Americans a group to watch.

While they prefer Kamala Harris over Donald Trump on most issues, her advantage with them is more tenuous than among other people of color.

Hispanic Americans prefer Harris over Trump by an average of 9 percentage points across 11 issues tested in the latest ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll. That compares with an average of 50 percentage points for Harris among Black Americans and 23 percentage points among Asian Americans. Among white Americans, Trump leads by an average of 12 percentage points.

This analysis, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, also finds that on several issues Hispanic Americans are more apt than Americans overall to distrust Trump, but not to trust Harris, leaving space for Trump to try to erode her margin. At the same time, Harris leads Trump solidly on personal attributes, potentially a bulwark against doubts on issues.

As things stand, in vote preference if the election were today, Hispanic Americans divide 56-41%, Harris-Trump. That's a closer margin than typical for this usually Democratic group. In exit polls, Hispanic Americans favored Joe Biden over Trump by 65-32% in 2020, for example, and Hillary Clinton over Trump by 67-27% in 2016.

Issue importance

Among 11 individual issues, Harris leads Trump among Hispanic Americans by double-digit margins, from 13 to 25 points, in trust to handle six: gun violence, Supreme Court appointments, protecting American democracy, health care, abortion and race relations.

There's no significant difference on five others, given the sample size of Hispanic Americans: the economy and inflation, both Trump +6; crime and safety, Harris +6; immigration, Trump +2; and Israel-Hamas war, Harris +2.

By contrast, Harris, who is Black and South Asian, leads in trust to handle each of these issues by 38 to 61 percentage points among Black Americans. She leads numerically on each among Asian Americans, although in this group, only six of 11 differences are statistically significant, given the sample size.

Among white Americans, Trump leads by double digits in trust to handle six of these issues and has significant single-digit leads on three others.

Compared with all adults, Hispanic Americans are 8 percentage points less likely to pick Trump in trust to handle health care and Supreme Court nominations alike, 7 percentage points less apt to pick Trump on three others -- immigration, crime/safety and race relations -- and 6 percentage points less apt to pick him on abortion and protecting democracy.

At the same time, there are no significant differences between all adults and Hispanic Americans in preference for Harris on any of these issues. (Across these and indeed all issues tested, sizable shares don't trust either candidate.)

The salience of issues matters, with help for Harris among Hispanic Americans in three areas. Compared with Americans overall, Hispanic Americans are 13 percentage points more apt to cite gun violence as a top concern in the election, 9 percentage points more likely to cite race relations and 8 percentage points more apt to cite health care -- all issues on which she leads Trump in trust.

Gun violence and health care also are disproportionately high-level concerns among Black people, as are abortion and, especially, race relations. Black and Asian Americans are less apt than Hispanic and white Americans to identify immigration as a concern.

Attributes

In contrast with trust to handle issues, Harris leads consistently among Hispanic Americans on personal attributes -- by 17 to 22 percentage points on shared values, understanding your problems, mental sharpness and honesty/trustworthiness, and by 37 percentage points on physical health.

Harris has the same lead among Asian Americans on understanding people's problems and broader ones on the other attributes, as well as vast leads on each among Black Americans, who are among the most loyal Democratic voters.

Among white Americans, Harris leads by 20 percentage points on physical health and by a slight 4 percentage points on honesty/trustworthiness, while Trump holds single-digit leads on understanding people's problems, values and (slightly) on mental sharpness.

Party identification, ideology and turnout

These attitudes are informed by partisanship and ideology, which differ across these groups.

On partisanship, compared with an even split among adults overall, Hispanic Americans are 16 percentage points more likely to identify themselves as Democrats than as Republicans; it's a similar 15-point gap among Asian Americans -- a slight difference given the sample size -- and a wide 46-point gap among Black Americans. White Americans are 15 percentage points more likely to identify with the GOP.

On ideology, there are no significant differences among racial or ethnic groups in self-identifying as liberal, although Black Americans are marginally more apt to be liberals than white and Hispanic Americans alike. Rather, Hispanic, Black and Asian Americans alike are more apt than white Americans, by double-digit margins, to identify as moderate, and similarly less apt to identify as conservative.

The size of these groups matters as well. White Americans account for 61% of all adults in the survey, Hispanic Americans for 17%, Black Americans for 12% and Asian Americans for 5%.

Actual turnout may differ; among registered voters, the share of white Americans rises to 66%, with Hispanic Americans at 14%, Black Americans at 12% and Asian Americans at 4%. White Americans account for 71% of likely voters, with Hispanic Americans at 12%, Black Americans at 11% and Asian Americans at 3%.

In a close race, given their differing preferences, it's turnout among these groups that well may matter most.