Democrats sweat Harris' polls, but strategists say election is 'jump ball': ANALYSIS

To read some accounts of the presidential race, voters could be forgiven for thinking Vice President Kamala Harris is in dire trouble, while former President Donald Trump is preparing for a White House return.

But in reality, both campaigns are bracing for a coin flip of a race, with each side seeing both paths to victory and potential pitfalls, according to conversations with six operatives from both parties.

Democrats have begun their biannual tradition of biting their nails down to the cuticles, a level of nervousness some in the party said falls short of a true reflection of Harris' chances. And while Republicans are feeling strong that Harris' summer surge has faded, they recognize the race is still far from settled for Trump while warning the party and its voters of overconfidence.

Taken together, regardless of the constant churn in Washington Beltway-fueled analysis of the race's "vibes," the presidential contest is taking place in what is widely viewed as a 50-50 country, and therefore a jump ball.

"Democrats always see the glass as half-empty rather than half-full. I think the reality is this election is so tight, it's exactly where we thought it would be three months ago, that it was going to come down to a jump ball election, that there were a handful of states that were going to really be on the razor's edge," said Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson.

Democrats were flying high over the summer after Harris replaced President Joe Biden as Democrats' nominee, enjoying a surge of enthusiasm for a party that had been depressed about its chances of keeping the White House. FiveThirtyEight's national polling average had her at a high-water mark 3.7 points ahead on Aug. 23 after months of Biden trailing.

As of Thursday, her edge sat at 1.7 points, a cumulative drop that may appear numerically minuscule but was enough to send some party members and operatives into a tailspin.

Quotes, largely anonymous, seeped their way into the media about worries that the race was slipping away as key swing states came to within poll's margin of error. Scarred by a 2016 cycle that saw Hillary Clinton lose to Trump after surveys showed her far ahead, Democratic whispers grew about what would happen when Trump entered a presidential race as anything other than an underdog.

"Democrats who follow this closely but aren't necessarily working for campaigns on a day-to-day basis were hoping that she was going to pull away and are coming to the realization that this race is much closer than they hoped," said one source with the Harris campaign's thinking.

Democrats' penchant for handwringing is "something that's been true for decades," the source said, and "given the concern over Donald Trump, not surprising that there is an especially large amount of bedwetting this fall."

However, seasoned operatives said, the doom and gloom doesn't necessarily reflect Harris' chances on Nov. 5.

Polls, both nationally and in swing states, have never shown her consistently trailing outside the margin of error. She boasts a muscular ground game, particularly compared to Trump, who has farmed his out to supportive outside groups. And while Trump is a known quantity after decades in the limelight and four years in the White House, voters' perceptions of Harris are less cemented, offering her a window to improve her odds.

On top of that, there's the trend of voters rejecting Trump in 2018, 2020 and 2022, high early-vote numbers, an opponent in Trump who has been unable to stick to policy-focused messaging, and an improving economy and potent messaging around abortion, even amid voter frustrations over inflation and immigration.

To be sure, there remains a real possibility that Harris could lose. But that's not the same as a certainty, leaving operatives like Jim Kessler, a co-founder of the center-left think tank Third Way, feeling "panically optimistic."

"It's just going to be nervy and a nail-biter all the way through. But I think if you look objectively, there's a lot of bright spots in what we're seeing for Harris," he said.

"The bedwetting to me makes sense based on the stakes, but not so much based on the odds," added the source familiar with the Harris team's thinking.

Republicans, for their part, are also not taking anything for granted.

The party is ebullient after a summer that saw Trump's chances drop amid Harris' surge -- but, as with Harris, his fate is far from certain, and Republicans are warning against overconfidence while still enjoying the more level playing field.

"Could it be a wave? Sure, absolutely. However, these polls are still close," said one national GOP strategist. "I'm hoping Republicans don't get so excited that they forget to go and vote. That's kind of what you see right now is that Republicans have this almost out-of-body experience of how we're going to win all these states, and it's not going to be close."

"I'm always concerned" about overconfidence, the person added. "You should always run like you're down a point."

Trump and his surrogates are still blitzing the campaign trail and appearing for (largely friendly) interviews, appearing to be ready to run through the tape.

And Republicans have already been burned once before -- in 2022, the media and operatives of both parties predicted a midterm red wave that never came after months of speculation that Republicans were primed to rebound from their 2020 loss.

"In a meeting they'll say, 'don't measure the drapes.' It's a very uncomfortable moment in Trumpworld because experience tells you that anything can go wrong, but everything's going our way," said one source in Trump's orbit.

"The specter of 2022 is often discussed in the campaign office. And I think the most important aspect of 2022 is that Trump was not on the ballot," the person added. "But the missing red wave is brought up often."

That anxiety, on both sides, is a reflection of the country's even political split -- and, operatives said, a likely defining feature of the remainder of the 2024 presidential race.

"At the end of the day, like this is going to come down to tens of thousands of votes in one, two or three states, that's going to be it. If you had asked in February of 2023, like, this is just where the country is right now," said one former senior Trump administration official.

"If you're not running scared," Kessler added, "you're running to lose."