Biden falters in high-stakes debate, Trump spews falsehoods

The contest was seen as a test of each man's fitness for office.

In a historic clash of personality and policy, Joe Biden and Donald Trump took the stage for the first presidential debate of the 2024 election.

The showdown provided a rare opportunity for both candidates to move the needle in what has been a stubbornly tight race for the White House, but at the end of the night, Biden's halting performance raised new concerns among Democrats and cause Republicans to celebrate.

The debate was a rematch for Biden and Trump, who faced each other twice in 2020, but a first-of-its-kind format and a vastly different political landscape presented new challenges for the two rivals.


Bitter debate offers little new insight into Biden, Trump policy goals

For the most part, tonight's debate revealed nothing new about what Biden and Trump think on major issues from the economy, immigration, foreign policy and reproductive rights.

Each candidate reiterated positions they've already touted countless times on the campaign stump.

Instead, they largely focused on criticizing each other's past records and lobbing personal attacks.


Trump targets Biden during his closing argument

In his two-minute closing argument, Trump went after Biden's record abroad in a personal attack.

"They don't respect you throughout the world," he said.

Trump said he had the largest tax cut and the largest regulation cuts in history, but the country is now "exploding."

"We're a failing nation, but it's not going to be failing anymore," he said. "We're going to make it great again."


Trump deflects when asked if will accept election results

Trump went to other topics when asked if he would accept the results of the 2024 election and had to be asked the question several times.

The former president finally responded, "If it's a fair and legal and good election absolutely," before adding that he would have accepted the last election if not for "the fraud." There was no evidence of widespread election fraud in the 2020 election.

Biden pushed back that Trump's fraud claims were debunked by courts, telling him, "You can't stand the loss."

"I doubt you'll accept it because you're a whiner," he said.



Biden delivers closing argument

"We have made significant progress from the debacle that was left by President Trump in his last term," Biden said.

Biden then went on to summarize some of his signature policies. On the economy, he vowed he will not raise taxes on anyone making under $400,000 a year and to continue his work to reduce health care costs, child care costs and give families financial breathing room.

"We're going to continue to fight to bring down inflation and give people a break," Biden said in closing.


How Americans feel going into the debate

After tonight's debate, there will be a rush to anoint a "winner" and a "loser," but the only way we can really do that is once we have data on how the debate will actually affect people’s votes. To that end, 538 partnered with Ipsos to poll the same group of likely voters both before and after the debate to see how their attitudes change. Here are some of the key findings from our pre-debate poll, which was conducted using Ipsos' KnowledgePanel.

First, we asked respondents to rate how well they thought each candidate would perform in the debate tonight on a five-point scale. On average, Trump got a score of 2.96 out of 5, and Biden got a score of 2.58 out of 5. In other words, expectations are significantly lower for Biden tonight, which could end up helping him -- even a so-so performance from Biden would exceed most people's expectations.

It looks like the reason people have such low expectations for Biden is his advanced age. We also asked respondents to grade each candidate's physical, mental and emotional fitness on a five-point scale. On average, Biden got just a 2.3 out of 5 on physical fitness and a 2.4 out of 5 on mental fitness. Trump bested him on both of those measures, but Trump got only a 2.6 out of 5 on emotional fitness, which was lower than Biden's score.

We also asked voters what issues would have the most impact on their vote. Fifty percent ranked inflation or increasing costs as one of their top three issues, while 37% included immigration. Voters also said Trump would do a better job handling those issues than Biden, so it will be especially important for the president to show strength on these issues tonight.

Finally, we asked voters which candidates they were considering supporting. Heading into the debate, 44.8% of voters are at least considering voting for Trump, 44.5% are at least considering voting for Biden and 18.5% are at least considering voting for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who failed to qualify for the debate. (Respondents could say they were considering multiple candidates, which is why these numbers add up to more than 100%.) We'll ask voters the same question after the debate to see whether these numbers shift.

-538's Nathaniel Rakich