Trump maintains a lead of 28 percentage points over his nearest competitor in South Carolina, according to the latest polls.
Haley and Scott, the two candidates from South Carolina, are both polling higher in South Carolina than they are nationally, according to our polling average. Trump is polling about 7 points lower in South Carolina than in national polls.
Only one pollster, the Manhattan Institute has tested the favorability of Republican candidates in South Carolina since July 1. That survey found Scott and DeSantis had the highest net favorability in the state (+56 and +55 percentage points, respectively), and Trump and Haley close behind (+39 and +33 points, respectively). Pence had a net favorability of +1 point, and Christie was underwater by -36 points.
Economic issues are most important to Republican primary voters in South Carolina, according to a July survey from Fox Business/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research. Fifty-one percent of Republican voters said economic issues would be most important for deciding their vote. Twelve percent each said immigration issues, social issues and foreign policy were most important.
In an August survey by National Public Affairs, 40 percent of South Carolina Republican voters said that Trump wouldn’t lose their support even if he did not show up to the debate. Twelve percent said that they support Trump, but if he didn’t debate they would be open to or definitely supporting someone else, 32 percent said they wouldn’t vote for Trump regardless, 9 percent said they probably wouldn’t watch the debate anyway and 6 percent were unsure.
-Analysis by FiveThirtyEight