Vance doesn't give Trump a geographic boost
The conventional wisdom is that presidential candidates should pick running mates who will give them a boost in a key swing state. But Trump didn't do that: Vance is from Ohio, a state that used to be pivotal in presidential elections but has now become pretty reliably Republican. (Trump won it by 8 points in 2020 even as Biden was winning nationwide by a healthy margin.)
Was that a missed opportunity for Trump? Probably not: It turns out that vice-presidential candidates barely matter. Historically, they have been worth about 1 additional percentage point in their home state -- if that -- and don't make a difference in other states. So while Vance might be worth a few extra votes in Ohio, his selection is unlikely to move the needle even in neighboring states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan and probably won't affect the election outcome.
-538's Nathaniel Rakich