Addressing his first divided Congress, Biden says 'the soul of this nation is strong'

Republicans interjected during his speech and pushed back in their own.

Last Updated: February 8, 2023, 10:39 AM EST

President Joe Biden on Tuesday night delivered his second State of the Union address in a pivotal moment as he laid out not only his accomplishments and agenda but made the case for his leadership ahead of an expected announcement on running for reelection.

Unlike his first two years in office, Republicans now control the House of Representatives and Speaker Kevin McCarthy, sitting behind the president for the first time, has threatened to block Biden's agenda.

Partners at FiveThirtyEight provided analysis in the blog below before, during and after Biden's speech.

Feb 07, 2023, 6:30 PM EST

Biden to say America's democracy is 'bruised' but remains 'unbroken'

In his speech tonight, President Biden will speak about the state of American democracy as he addresses Congress and the nation.

"The story of America is a story of progress and resilience … We are the only country that has emerged from every crisis stronger than when we entered it. That is what we are doing again," Biden is expected to say, according to excerpts of his prepared speech released by the White House, as has become a tradition.

Biden will specifically tout his administration's response to the economic crisis, COVID-19 and attacks on democracy.

"Two years ago our economy was reeling," he's expected to say in the address. "As I stand here tonight, we have created a record 12 million new jobs -- more jobs created in two years than any president has ever created in four years. Two years ago, COVID had shut down our businesses, closed our schools, and robbed us of so much. Today, COVID no longer controls our lives."

"And two years ago, our democracy faced its greatest threat since the Civil War. Today, though bruised, our democracy remains unbowed and unbroken."

Feb 07, 2023, 6:21 PM EST

Schumer and Jeffries: Expect Biden to draw contrasts with GOP

Ahead of the president's State of the Union address, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said that Biden should not only tout what he's done for the American people but also draw a contrast with the GOP alternative during his later remarks.

While meeting with a small group of reporters, the Brooklyn Democrats noted that even as Biden faces headwinds in the polls, he would do well in highlighting the legislative wins their party have secured for average Americans while drawing a clear contrast between Democrats who they said are "unified with a sense of purpose" and what they called "the chaos and dysfunction and extremism" in the Republican Party.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer talks to reporters ahead of the State of the Union address at the Capitol in Washington, Feb. 7, 2023.
J. Scott Applewhite/AP

When asked by ABC News Senior Congressional Correspondent Rachel Scott about a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll showing 41% of Americans believe they are not as well off since Biden took office, Schumer argued Democrats don't need a reset.

"You know, it's not going to be you know, a huge campaign rally speech," Schumer said, before pushing back on poll numbers. "I don't think we need a reset. Most of it hasn't been implemented a lot of it hasn't even had the regulations implemented at the executive level yet. You know, if it's a year from now, maybe that's a valid argument but I don't think it will be that way a year from now."

– ABC News Senior Congressional Correspondent Rachel Scott

Feb 07, 2023, 6:05 PM EST

Potential debt ceiling standoff looms large

When Biden delivers his State of the Union address, it will be the first with new House Speaker Kevin McCarthy sitting over his shoulder.

Shaping up to be the first major obstacle that McCarthy and Biden must work together to overcome is how Congress should go about raising the federal borrowing limit, which the Treasury Department has indicated will need to be done as soon as June to make sure none of the federal government's bills go unpaid.

The conflict, along with the potentially calamitous economic consequences of a debt default, will no doubt color some of Biden's remarks as he looks to reassure the 53% of Americans who are "very" concerned about that outcome, according to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll.

PHOTO: Kevin McCarthy and Minority Whip Steve Scalise, stand and applaud for President Joe Biden as he delivers the State of the Union address during a joint session of Congress in the U.S. Capitol's House Chamber March 1, 2022 in Washington, DC.
Kevin McCarthy and Steve Scalise, stand and applaud for President Joe Biden as he delivers the State of the Union address during a joint session of Congress in the U.S. Capitol's House Chamber March 1, 2022 in Washington, DC.
Win Mcnamee/Getty Images. FILE

Biden and McCarthy say they agree that the nation cannot default on its debt, but with the Treasury already using "extraordinary measures" to keep the nation out of the red, that's about all they agree on.

The speaker looked to preempt Biden's State of the Union speech in remarks Monday night in which he outlined what he saw as the major risks the nation faces by failing to cut spending. McCarthy described the $31.4 trillion national debt as the "greatest threat to our future."

The Biden administration, meanwhile, maintains that the debt limit must be raised without any political negotiation or bargaining, as has been done under both parties over many years.

-ABC News' Allison Pecorin

Feb 07, 2023, 6:20 PM EST

The State of the Union doesn't usually affect the president's approval rating

Biden and Democrats might be hoping that Tuesday night's State of the Union address will give him a political boost, but history shows that's unlikely to be the case.

When we compare Gallup polls taken just before State of the Union addresses since 1978 to Gallup polls taken just after them, we see that the president's approval rating typically doesn't move very much.

On average, a president's approval rating shifts by just 2.6 points after State of the Union addresses. But that shift is just as likely to be negative as it is positive. As a result, the average president has gotten just 0.4 points more popular after the State of the Union.

While a few presidents, such as Bill Clinton in 1998, have emerged from the speech in a significantly improved position, they are the exception, not the rule. And those changes may not even be attributable to the State of the Union; for example, then-President Donald Trump's approval rating rose 6 points after his 2019 address -- but the 2018-19 government shutdown came to an end just a few days before his speech.

-FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich

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