Entering the debate, the race is basically tied
The stakes for this debate are high for both candidates for one very simple reason: The presidential race is extremely close right now. In some of the states most likely to decide the election — such as Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina — 538's polling averages show Harris and Trump within 1 percentage point of each other.
Nationally, Harris leads Trump by an average of almost 3 points, raising the possibility that she could win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College, as Hillary Clinton did in 2016. According to 538's average, Harris's national lead peaked at 3.7 points on Aug. 23, the day after the Democratic National Convention, but her advantage has slipped a bit in the weeks since.
![PHOTO: 538's average of 2024 presidential polls shows Vice President Kamala Harris with 47.1 percent and former President Donald Trump with 44.4 percent.](https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/8bf7bce8-063b-4658-b09e-4292923d5736/presidentialaverage-538-cb-240910_1726005955265_hpEmbed_20x13.jpg)
-538's Nathaniel Rakich