The Note: Draft Biden Effort Takes To The Airwaves

— -- NOTABLES

--DRAFT BIDEN'S FIRST AD FEATURES EMOTIONAL SPEECH ABOUT FAMILY TRAGEDY: Joe Biden may not appear on the debate stage next week, but a group seeking to draft him into the presidential race will make his presence known on TV beforehand -- in an emotional spot featuring the vice president talking about family tragedies and potential of the U.S. ABC's JONATHAN KARL and ARLETTE SAENZ report that Draft Biden, the super-PAC urging the vice president to run in 2016, will air its first national television ad on the day of the Democratic debate. In a $250,000 national cable buy, the 90 second spot will air on CNN in the run-up to the debate on Oct. 13 and then again the next day. http://abcn.ws/1JS2Iuu

--WHAT'S IN THE AD: The ad splices together audio from an emotional speech Biden delivered at Yale University just two weeks before his son Beau passed away. The vice president recounts the death of his first wife, Neilia, and daughter, Naomi, in a car crash and how the heartbreak brought him closer with his family. "The incredible bond I have with my children is a gift I'm not sure I would've had had I not been through what I went through," Biden says as photos of his young family air on the screen. "By focusing on my sons, I found my redemption." The ad concludes with simple text: "Joe, run." WATCH: http://abcn.ws/1Zbmm07

--WHO MADE THE AD? Mark Putnam, who many will remember as one of the standout ad makers from 2014 as well as an ad maker for Obama in 2008 and 2012. He also worked on Biden's 1988 campaign, ABC's ARLETTE SAENZ notes.

--ANALYSIS -- ABC's RICK KLEIN: Is Donald Trump capable of a reinvention? That's an easy question, admittedly. But is he capable of coming up with a campaign 2.0, or 3.0, or 4.0? The Washington Post on Wednesday has details of the possible next Trump phase, as detailed by the candidate himself: TV ads, a new book, more policy papers, more of his family. An early mistake, perhaps, in judging Trump's political survival has been focusing on what the other candidates do to take him on or cope with his presence. So far, Trump's rise and rise (and slight fall) hasn't seemed to have much to do with what his rivals say or do about him. It's been about Trump's own appeal and actions. Polling suggests his first act has run long and worn thin. Assuming a downward trajectory, though, underestimates Trump and, yes, his political talents. He's controlled his own narrative to a remarkable degree so far. If he does have a compelling new campaign strategy, his rivals need to hope it won't work, more than they can expect to be able to stifle it.

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT IN THE NOTE -- SHOULD JEB BUSH BE FREAKING OUT RIGHT NOW? A FIVETHIRTYEIGHT CHAT. There's been a spate of articles recently suggesting the Jeb Bush campaign should be panicking right now. So, is he toast? There are reasons for him to worry: The pace of GOP officials endorsing him has slowed or stopped, and he's at a low ebb in national polls. Meanwhile, Marco Rubio is starting to creep in on Bush's market share. But panic? It's too early for that. http://53eig.ht/1NmBTq9

TODAY ON THE TRAIL with ABC's SHUSHANNAH WALSHE: Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Bobby Jindal are all in Iowa today. Clinton starts her day at a community forum in Mount Vernon and in the afternoon she will attend another event in Council Bluffs. Bush has a morning event in Muscatine and in the afternoon holds a meet and greet in Oskaloosa. Trump will hold an early afternoon rally in Waterloo. Huckabee will tour a manufacturer in the Des Moines suburb of Urbandale this morning and then head to tour Renewable Energy Group in Newton at noon. Jindal will hold a meet and greet this afternoon in Atlantic and a few hours after Clinton will hold a town hall in Council Bluffs.

New Hampshire is staying busy too. Marco Rubio and Chris Christie are both in the first primary state. Rubio has been jabbed for not spending enough time in the critical state, but he has three events today holding town halls in Manchester, Dover, and Wolfeboro. Christie has an afternoon employee roundtable and tour at a lumber company in East Hempstead this afternoon and this evening he holds a town hall in Raymond.

Martin O'Malley and Bernie Sanders are both in Washington, DC this afternoon participating in the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute Presidential Candidates Forum. Joe Biden--not a candidate yet, but possibly soon--is also in Washington. He will deliver remarks at the White House Summit on Worker Voice this afternoon.

THE BUZZ

with ABC's VERONICA STRACQUALURSI and PAOLA CHAVEZ

BEN CARSON 'MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE' IF KINDERGARTEN TEACHERS HAD GUNS. In the wake of last week's shooting in Oregon, Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson suggested that more people should be armed in the United States and said he would be okay with teachers being armed. "If I had a little kid in kindergarten somewhere would feel much more comfortable if I knew on that campus there was a police officer or somebody who was trained with a weapon. I would feel more comfortable," Carson said in a new interview with USA Today's Capital Download. "If the teacher was trained in the use of that weapon and had access to it, I would be much more comfortable if they had one than if they didn't." ABC's KATHERINE FAULDERS reports, Carson said he would like teachers to be trained in diversionary tactics, along with other school personnel. http://abcn.ws/1OjzBrX

NOTED: DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES: WHERE THEY AGREE AND DISAGREE ON GUN CONTROL. The Democratic Party's first debate of the 2016 Presidential campaign is just days away, and after the shooting at Umpqua Community College in Oregon last week, gun control will likely take center stage. Several of the candidates have laid out new proposals addressing gun violence in the last few weeks -- Hillary Clinton did so on Monday -- energizing gun control advocates across the country. Compared to their GOP counterparts, the Democratic presidential contenders have a lot in common when it comes to gun control policy, but there are key differences in their proposals. ABC's MARYALICE PARKS takes a look at where they agree and where they don't. http://abcn.ws/1VDmeBX

HILLARY CLINTON SENDS GOP CANDIDATES COPIES OF HER BOOK. Hillary Clinton thinks every GOP presidential candidate should read her book "Hard Choices" -- so much so that she sent 14 of them a copy of it, along with a personalized letter telling each of them to form a book club. "You know I hear the Republicans talking from time to time in their debates and elsewhere and they say things like 'Oh I don't know what she accomplished as secretary of state, she didn't accomplish anything,' I listened to that for a while and then I thought you know maybe they just don't know," Clinton said Tuesday in Muscatine, Iowa. "So I have now sent each of them a copy of my book, 'Hard Choices,' about what we did during those four years." Clinton's campaign confirmed that she sent the book to every Republican presidential candidate, except for one: Jim Gilmore, ABC's LIZ KREUTZ reports. http://abcn.ws/1KYOwUs

MARCO RUBIO LAUGHS OFF DONALD TRUMP'S 'CARE PACKAGE.' As the fight between GOP hopefuls Donald Trump and Marco Rubio heats up, it seems the Trump campaign thought Rubio might need a little help cooling off, according to ABC's INES DE LA CUETARA. On Monday, the Trump campaign sent Rubio's Washington office a special care package, with 24 bottles of water with Trump's face on them and the words "Trump Ice Natural Spring Water." Also in the care package: two "Make America Great Again" towels, bumper stickers, and a note reading, "Since you're always sweating, we thought you could use some water. Enjoy!" "Apparently the water is very high quality water. It's top notch water that he sent us," Rubio said Tuesday morning on NBC. "So we're grateful for the gift." http://abcn.ws/1VBEKzZ

CLINTON TO TAKE A POSITION ON TRADE DEAL -- BUT NOT JUST YET. Hillary Clinton declined to take a position on the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement when asked about it by a reporter during an off the record stop at a Farmer's Market in Davenport yesterday. But, according to a reporter there, Clinton said she will be "diving into that tonight" and "will definitely have a position." For months, Clinton has refrained from taking a stance on TPP- saying she won't until she sees the final provisions. Today, Clinton will do a press availability following her event - it's almost certain, it seems, that she will take a stance then, ABC's LIZ KREUTZ notes.

WHO'S TWEETING?

@mkraju: "It's a pretty cruel world out there once you're a candidate," Durbin says of Biden. Our story on the Dem unease. http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/07/politics/joe-biden-democratic-senators/index.html ...

@tackettdc: McCarthy's Benghazi comment again shows HRC does best when under attack @maggienyt http://nyti.ms/1VDm2YJ

@costareports: As Rand Paul struggles, Trump is connecting w/ Rs who, in post-W era, remain wary of hawks http://wpo.st/iBQf0

@zbyronwolf: Tim Scott feels called to the pulpit more than the White House: http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/07/politics/tim-scott-south-carolina-kingmaker/index.html ... @niaCNN @jmoorheadcnn #2016

@amyewalter: NPR's American immigrants series by @tgjelten is superb. A reminder of what makes America so unique & its people so resilient.