The Note: Empire State of Mind

— -- NOTABLES

--WHAT’S AT STAKE IN THE NEW YORK PRIMARY: One of the biggest primary battles in the presidential election is coming to a head today in New York. The candidates from both sides have been campaigning throughout the Empire State in an effort to win as many delegates as possible. Donald Trump is leading his GOP opponents by 33 points while Hillary Clinton has a 13-point edge over Bernie Sanders, according to a WNBC/WSJ/Marist poll released April 15. The survey showed Trump with 54 percent support of Republican primary voters. Ohio Gov. John Kasich is in second place with 21 percent and Sen. Ted Cruz with 18 percent. ABC’s MEGHAN KENEALLY has more. http://abcn.ws/1SV4MqR

--HOW IT WORKS FOR THE GOP: The Republican delegates in New York are awarded proportionally for any candidate who receives at least 20 percent of the vote. But if a candidate gets the majority of the vote (more than 50 percent) in each individual congressional district, he will take all three delegates allotted to that congressional district. So if Trump gets more than 50 percent of the vote in each of the state's 27 congressional districts, he will take all 81 delegates. On top of that, the remaining 14 at-large delegates are awarded based on the state totals, so if Trump wins a popular majority in the state, he gets those as well, leaving his rivals Sen. Ted Cruz and Gov. John Kasich with no delegates at all, KENEALLY notes: http://abcn.ws/1pdArvQ

--MATT DOWD SPEAKS: ABC News political analyst Matt Dowd said that it seems pretty clear that Trump is going to win the state, and he could stand to pick up a sizable amount of the state's 95 delegates. "If he picks up north of 75 [delegates], he has a real path to 1,237," Dowd said, referring to the number of delegates a Republican nominee is required to win to secure the nomination before the July convention in Cleveland. "Kasich has a real shot of coming second," Dowd added, noting that such a result would give Kasich "a better argument going forward that people should pay attention to him." http://abcn.ws/1SV4MqR

--DEMOCRATIC DUEL: There are 247 delegates up for grabs for Democrats in New York, making Tuesday's primary a pivotal one. As of today, ABC News estimates that Clinton has a total of 1,758 delegates and Sanders has a total 1,076 delegates. The number of delegates needed to win the Democratic nomination is 2,383. http://abcn.ws/1SV4MqR

ANALYSIS -- ABC’S RICK KLEIN: If Donald Trump starts a winning streak with the New York primary, that’s because he was supposed to win these games. It’s important not to mistake geography for momentum, particularly in this math-heavy phase of the campaign. Ted Cruz has been winning in places, with a few exceptions, that his message and his machine were built to win. That’s what Trump will take advantage of, in New York and in Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Delaware, and most likely Maryland as well. But Trump at this phase isn’t running against Cruz nearly as much as he’s running against himself, and a particular daunting number: 1,237. The fact is that, in a state like New York, Trump has to not just win but dominate the delegate race. Even if he reaches a new high-water mark and easily clears 50 percent, he will be meeting, not exceeding, expectations. Yes, Trump values New York. But that doesn’t make it all that valuable to his drive for the nomination.

YESTERDAY ON THE TRAIL with ABC’s VERONICA STRACQUALURSI and PAOLA CHAVEZ

HILLARY CLINTON HITS ALL THE VOTING BLOCKS AHEAD OF NY PRIMARY. In this final stretch before the New York primary, Hillary Clinton is hit all the voting blocks as she campaigns around the city— from women to union workers to Asian-Americans to African-Americans to Hispanics. In the past 36 hours alone, Clinton has campaigned at a black church in Mount Vernon, a block party in a Hispanic neighborhood of Washington Heights (where she danced to latin music), a hospital and car wash to meet with union workers, an Asian restaurant in Flushing for boba tea, and in Manhattan for a women’s focused rally with Gabby Giffords, Cecile Richards and Kirsten Gillibrand. ABC’s LIZ KREUTZ reports, at nearly all of these stops, Clinton has been touting the diversity of the city and hailing "New York values” - likely in a way to contrast herself with Trump and the GOP. “I am so proud of New York. You know, Lady Liberty stands in our harbor. We are a city of immigrants, a state of immigrants and a nation of immigrants,” Clinton said this afternoon during her women’s event at the Hilton Midtown.

SANDERS CAMPAIGN ACCUSES CLINTON AND DNC OF VIOLATING CAMPAIGN FINANCE RULES. Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders’ campaign is accusing his rival Hillary Clinton and the Democratic National Convention of “serious apparent violations of campaign finance laws” by improperly allocating money obtained through joint fundraising, ABC’s PAOLA CHAVEZ and VERONICA STRACQUALURSI reports. In a statement released yesterday, the Sanders’ campaign wrote that the joint fundraising committee Hillary Victory Fund (HVF) is being “exploited” to solely benefit Clinton’s campaign for president. In joint fundraising, the Federal Election Commission (FEC) allows two or more political committees (in the case of HVF, the DNC and Hillary for America) to fundraise together. These agreements are not uncommon and allow the two parties to split the cost of hosting the fundraiser and sharing the proceeds. Sanders also signed a joint fundraiser agreement with the DNC in 2015. FEC rules states that the two participants should divide the money raised from a fundraiser based on an “agreed upon allocation formula.” But if the allocation formula results in an “excessive contribution” for either party involved, the excessive portion has to be split among the other participants. http://abcn.ws/1SVTToO

CRUZ SAYS HIS MAIN OBJECTIVE IS UNITY, TALKS TAX DAY. An energized Senator Ted Cruz took the stage in Towson, Maryland clearly trying to look past New York and forward to Maryland. Cruz is now explicitly saying that “unity” is his objective more than anything else. "That is our object more than anything else is unity.  Bringing together, standing together, united among Republicans,” Cruz said Monday. The Texas senator also made a point of playing up the importance of Maryland’s vote, calling it a battleground who the nation will be looking to. ABC’s JESSICA HOPPER reports, these are words he never said in New York. "Now Maryland votes just over a week from now.  Maryland is a battleground.  Maryland is going to have an outsized voice as the nation is looking to Maryland to decide, do we nominated Donald Trump and hand the election to Hillary Clinton?  Or do we unite behind the Cruz campaign and beat Hillary Clinton?” Cruz said.

HOW THE FEC MIGHT VIEW TRUMP’S ‘TOYS’ TO WOO DELEGATES. Though Donald Trump boasted this weekend that he could win delegates' support by wining and dining them with his great "toys," doing so wouldn't necessarily be legal. The comment came during an event this weekend when Trump, who is currently leading the Republican presidential pack but is facing a delegate challenge by his rival Sen. Ted Cruz, blasted the election system for being "crooked." "It’s a corrupt and crooked system.... Look, nobody has better toys than I do. I can put [the delegates] in the best planes and bring them to the best resorts anywhere in the world. Doral, Mar-a Lago. I can put them in the best places in the world," Trump said on Sunday, referencing a golf resort and a private club he owns in Florida. ABC’s MEGHAN KENEALLY and LAUREN PEARLE have more. http://abcn.ws/1XFcs4r

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

SHAKEUPS CONTINUE IN TRUMP CAMPAIGN. In a sign of more turmoil for the campaign of billionaire Donald Trump, the man charged with hiring volunteers and building ground operations ahead of state primaries across the country, announced he is departing, ABC’s JOHN SANTUCCI reports. “I am voluntarily leaving,” field director Stuart Jolly confirmed to ABC News today. The senior member of the Trump team later added that he “would do it all over again” but it was time for “new leadership to take the reins.” Jolly’s departure comes on the heels of several changes in the GOP front-runner’s team. It was just last week the campaign announced the hiring of veteran operative Paul Manafort to serve as convention manager, charged with securing the delegates needed for Trump ahead of the Republican party convention this July in Cleveland, Ohio. http://abcn.ws/1YDWV53

IN THE NOTE’S INBOX: RNC HITS HILLARY -- ‘BIG APPLE BUST.’  A new research piece pegged to New York primary day from the Republican National Committee: “A New York State Of Mind Has Focused The Race On Clinton's Lack Of Accomplishments As A Senator, Inability To Justify Her Decisions, And Failure To Connect With Voters.” Among other things, the RNC asserts: “Clinton's time as a senator from New York shows that she was unable to fulfill key campaign promises or as her 2016 surrogates point out, have any substantive accomplishments to show for her time representing The Empire State.” FULL MEMO: https://gop.com/big-apple-bust/

WHO’S TWEETING?

@opendebates: We announce the first bottom-up #OpenDebate for U.S. Senate, April 25: #FLSen @AlanGrayson vs. @DavidJollyFL

@ryanstruyk: Rudy Guiliani on CNN before New York primary: "Cruz is a straight overhand fastball for Hillary Clinton. She'll knock him out of the park."

@TeddyDavisCNN: The Clinton camp is now publicly asking: Will @BernieSanders turn into Ralph Nader and destroy Dem chances in Nov?

@abbydphillip: Hillary Clinton has dispatched to top staffers, @Ann_OLeary and @AmandaRenteria on a Zika fact-finding mission to Puerto Rico this weekend.

@micahcohen: New York's primary rules really screw over #FeelTheBern: http://53eig.ht/1Sh5XkQ