The Note: West Virginia, Nebraska Primary Primer

ByABC News
May 10, 2016, 8:19 AM

— -- NOTABLES

--WHAT TO WATCH FOR IN WEST VIRGINIA: Almost 8 years ago to the date, Hillary Clinton beat Barack Obama by a 2-1 margin in West Virginia. Fast-forward to today, and the dynamics in the state have almost entirely flipped. Bernie Sanders is expected to do well today and Clinton, once on top in coal country and now hoping to unify the party behind her, is bracing for a loss. ABCs MARYALICE PARKS and LIZ KREUTZ note what to watch for today. Polls close at 7:30PM ET: http://abcn.ws/1OloIli

--NEBRASKA VOTES TOO: Republicans there hold their primary tonight. Polls close at 9PM ET. Follow ABCs full coverage of the West Virginia and Nebraska primaries at: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Election

--NOVEMBER PREVIEW -- CLINTON, TRUMP TIED IN THREE SWING STATES. In a new Quinnipiac poll released today, the Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton and the presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump are neck and neck in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. In Florida and in Pennsylvania, Clinton is at 43 percent while Trump is 42 percent. Among Ohio voters, Trump gets 41 percent and Clinton gets 39 percent. The gender and the racial gap in each state is wide. In all three states, Trump leads among men and white voters, while Clinton leads among women and non-white voters. http://abcn.ws/23ElZuc

--ANALYSIS -- ABCs RICK KLEIN: If its over and it is indeed over, for almost all intents and purposes why is the Bern still being felt this intensely? Hillary Clintons campaign expects to lose Tuesdays West Virginia primary handily, probably by a larger gap than it lost Indiana a week ago. Clinton won both of those states against Barack Obama back in 2008; it might be said that they like underdogs, but it cant be said that they wont vote for a Clinton. Clinton didnt contest those states with advertising, and her coal comments surely hurt her in West Virginia. But going dark was her choice, just as her campaign is deciding to start advertising again in primary races, in Kentucky. Then there are new Quinnipiac polling numbers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida showing tight Trump-Clinton contests in each, and Sanders a slightly better matchup for Democrats. Clinton may be ready to move on to the general election, but Democratic Party voters arent quite there yet.

 

WRAPPING UP A WILD RIDE: A 2016 EXIT POLL REVIEW. What was that all about? "That" is the wild ride of the 2016 primary season, and ABC News exit polls conducted across the primaries provide illuminating answers, according to ABCs GARY LANGER. For Republicans, it was about demand for an outsider fueled by profound disenchantment with economic and political conditions. For the Democrats, a deep sense of economic unfairness also has played a role - but without the level of divisiveness that rent the GOP.