The Note: Wild events play out across relative stability of race

The TAKE with Rick Klein

It just might be that no minds are changed by even the most shocking revelations of the week -- that even President Donald Trump's own words won't move perceptions of this president and his leadership.

That isn't known at this moment. Even that, though, would be a problem for Trump and his prospects for a second term.

For all the wild news in the race and beyond, public polling suggests a stubborn stability. Former Vice President Joe Biden is up 7.5 points nationally over Trump in the latest FiveThirtyEight polling average; Biden was up by 7.6 points on June 11.

The race is closer in key battlegrounds, though not necessarily in all of them. Trump's vote share among likely voters in polls out since the conventions include a 43 and a 42 in Wisconsin (Marquette Law and Fox), two 44s in Pennsylvania (Quinnipiac and NBC/Marist), plus a 46 in North Carolina and a 40 in Arizona (both Fox polls).

Yes, he looks stronger in Florida and Texas -- but those are states that would add to a landslide sooner than they would tip an election. Trump needs to be growing his support instead of treading polling water, and trend lines are what they are regardless of how much stock you put in polls.

The campaign is falling into a rhythm for members of both tickets -- though events could hardly look more different in terms of crowds and COVID-19 precautions.

On Friday, Trump and Biden will come close to crossing paths in commemorating Sept. 11 in Shanksville, Pennsylvania. That doesn't mean, though, that either candidate is changing the direction of the race.

The RUNDOWN with MaryAlice Parks

Experts at every level seem to agree that more time is needed, not less, to complete an accurate census.

Earlier this year, the Trump administration announced plans to wind down the count sooner -- at the end of the month -- though the pandemic has created serious obstacles for connecting with every resident.

Advocates told lawmakers on Capitol Hill Thursday that any attempts to shortened the process could have devastating effects for local governments that rely on federal funds.

"It is not an exaggeration to say an accurate census can be a matter of life or death in tribal communities because the programs impacted by census count affects delivery of health care, public safety, our youth and elder programs, housing, violence against women grants and other programs that sustain our tribal communities," Stephen Roe Lewis, governor of the Gila River Community, told congressional leaders Thursday.

Just last week, a federal judge in California temporarily stopped the Trump administration from shortening the counting period.

Moreover, in a blow to the Trump administration, federal judges in New York on Thursday ruled that the secretary of Commerce, who oversees the U.S. Census Bureau, could not leave undocumented immigrants out of the population totals used to determine congressional seats.

It's clear each day matters in the race to be counted, and while there's time to still time participate in the 2020 national census, the question now is -- how much?

The TIP with Kendall Karson

In a year unlike any other for an election, the first signs of what to expect for an uncertain November are emerging 52 days out.

In Michigan, a key battleground that was long part of the Democrats' "blue wall" until it fell to Trump in 2016, more than 2.1 million voters have requested absentee ballots for the general election -- an eyepopping and record-breaking total with eight weeks to go.

The number of requests so far this year is nearly double the total from 2016, when just over 1.2 million Michigan voters requested absentee ballots by Election Day, according to the Detroit Free Press, when Michigan's total turnout in 2016 landed at roughly 4.9 million. It also surpasses the total number of absentee ballots requested for the state's down-ballot primaries last month -- 2 million -- which ultimately led to 1.5 million absentee ballots returned.

Still, with so much of the election likely to be unexpected, another "blue wall" state, Wisconsin -- where 1 million voters have requested absentee ballot -- appears to have not learned much from its chaotic April primary. The conservative-leaning state Supreme Court temporarily halted the mailing of absentee ballots as it weighs a decision on including the Green Party candidate on the ballot -- once again interjecting in the electoral process and potentially leading to voter confusion if ballot delays ensue.

THE PLAYLIST

ABC News' "Start Here" podcast. Friday morning's episode features ABC News Chief Business and Economics Correspondent Rebecca Jarvis on the ongoing economic fallout from COVID-19 and Congress' inability to pass a second stimulus plan. ABC News Senior National Correspondent Terry Moran breaks down the national security implications from President Trump's interviews with journalist Bob Woodward. And, ABC's John Quiñones highlights new details from his interview with Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy for the "20/20" special, "I Am Vanessa Guillen." http://apple.co/2HPocUL

FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast. Who are the older voters abandoning Trump? A look at the polls from 2016 to 2020 shows movement mostly among white voters. But why are they increasingly abandoning him? There's the pandemic, of course, but I'm not sure that explains everything. An average of six national polls from May -- before the beginning of widespread protests against police violence that would come to dominate the news over the summer -- showed Trump and Biden tied among voters 65 or over. Perhaps this other national crisis is driving away older Americans. Trump's inflammatory rhetoric about race and crime could be alienating them as well. https://apple.co/23r5y7w

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