State of the Race 2016: A Look Ahead to the Year Ahead
Each candidate's campaign so far and what it will take from each to win.
— -- The first votes of the 2016 election cycle will be cast in Iowa, New Hampshire and the other early nominating states next month, but 2015 was a roller-coaster political year.
With 2016 now upon us, here’s a candidate-by-candidate look at where we’ve been and where we’re headed on the road to the White House:
THE DEMOCRATS
Hillary Clinton
Her campaign so far: Clinton might be the front-runner, but her campaign hasn’t been smooth-sailing. Her strong performance at the first Democratic debate on Oct. 13, 2015 was a turning point. Now, Clinton seems to have hit her stride.
What it will take to win the primary: Iowa and New Hampshire may be up in the air, but as long as Clinton continues doing what she’s doing, with her strong establishment support and steady poll numbers, she is strongly favored to be the Democratic nominee.
--Liz Kreutz
Bernie Sanders
His campaign so far: Sanders has surprised pundits and primary voters alike, with his charging underdog candidacy. The progressive, independent senator has drawn some of the largest crowds of the election cycle with his populist message. In the third financial quarter of the year, Sanders proved that his grassroots campaign, fueled by small donations, could bring in big cash.
What it will take to win the primary: A breakthrough in states beyond Iowa and New Hampshire. In Iowa he has pulled within striking distance of Clinton and in New Hampshire he is maintaining a narrow lead. But in other crucial states like South Carolina and Nevada, he is behind.
--MaryAlice Parks
Martin O’Malley
His campaign so far: O’Malley has struggled to get his campaign off the ground. With a youthful vibe and executive experience many analysts are still scratching their heads as to why he has yet to get a break in the polls.
What it will take to win the primary: A major misstep by one of the other Democratic contenders. It is hard to see a scenario where O’Malley runs away with the nomination.
--MaryAlice Parks
THE REPUBLICANS
Donald Trump
His campaign so far: Trump has gone from leading to dominating the Republican primary for president. He has attacked Hispanics, women, Muslims, and other groups and yet his numbers continue to climb. His is a candidacy built without the pillars of political correctness.
What it will take to win the primary: Trump is attracting people by not having a script and sticking to his core message. It seems to be working.
--John Santucci
Ted Cruz
His campaign so far: Cruz is running what some pundits have called one of the smartest campaigns of the 2016 race. While steering clear of publicly criticizing Trump, Cruz has steadily been gaining on him in the polls.
What it will take to win the primary: Cruz is competing hard in the early state of Iowa, but he’s also playing a long game. His campaign hopes to clinch the nomination by taking several of the southern states which hold their nominating contests on Super Tuesday in March.
--Jessica Hopper
Ben Carson
His campaign so far: Carson has been on the main stage for all of the debates, but has never had a breakout moment. The retired neurosurgeon has been the only candidate in the Republican field to erase Trump’s national lead, but his numbers have taken a tumble. On New Year’s Eve, the Carson campaign saw a shakeup in leadership.
What it will take to win the primary: A break out moment and ability to shift away from his “Mr. Nice Guy” mentality and challenge the current frontrunner.
--Katherine Faulders
Marco Rubio
His campaign so far: After spending the summer laying low, Rubio rose steadily in the polls in the final months of 2015. He’s performed well in debates and has positioned himself as the youthful, optimistic candidate.
What it will take to win the primary: If Rubio’s dark horse strategy is successful, his main opponents will self-destruct, and Rubio will peak in just the right states, at just the right time. If Rubio finishes in the top three in Iowa and New Hampshire that could propel him in later states.
--Ines DeLaCuetara
Rand Paul
His campaign so far: The first-term senator who Time magazine once labeled "the most interesting man in American politics" has struggled to gain traction as a presidential candidate. Once firmly on the main stage of the Republican debates, Paul had to fight to make it into prime time for the last debate before the New Year.
What it will take to win the primary: Paul is banking big on college students and Iowa. If they turn out, the campaign believes they will take Iowa and be on the path to victory.
--Jessica Hopper
Jeb Bush
His campaign so far: The former Florida governor, son and brother to presidents, entered the race as the presumptive nominee, but all of that changed when Donald Trump entered the race. Bush's national and early state polls numbers have floundered, he’s had to cut staff and salaries, and refute Trump's damaging "low-energy" label.
What it will take to win the primary: Like the other governors in the race, Bush si hoping to stake his claim in the race by winning New Hampshire. He’s well organized in the state and will unleash a new wave of advertising early this year.
--Candace Smith
Carly Fiorina
Her campaign so far: The former Hewlett-Packard CEO's campaign began as a long shot but was propelled to viability after standout debate performance. She was rewarded with a climb in the polls, but later struggled to keep up the momentum.
What it will take to win the primary: A big, unexpected change in the GOP field. While Fiorina saw her standing surge this fall, her momentum was short-lived.
--Jordyn Phelps
Chris Christie
His campaign so far: The New Jersey governor’s presidential bid struggled to gain traction for much of 2015, but got a boost in New Hampshire where he has spent more time campaigning than any other Republican candidate and received the endorsement of the influential New Hampshire Union Leader newspaper.
What it will take to win the primary: Christie’s momentum in New Hampshire has to keep growing beyond the borders of the Granite State.
--Jordyn Phelps
John Kasich
His campaign so far: The Ohio Governor has managed to make all GOP main stage presidential debates, but has not truly had a breakout moment.
What it will take to win the primary: A change in Republican voters’ minds. Kasich is a candidate with experience -- as both a congressman and governor -- but that’s not what voters seem to want.
--Veronica Stracqualursi
Mike Huckabee
His campaign so far: The former Arkansas governor, who won the 2008 Iowa caucuses, hasn’t had the ability to break through as a top-tier contender so far. Huckabee started the campaign as a player: he actually led a CNN poll in February. Now, his low poll numbers have relegated him to the bottom tier of candidates.
What it will take to win the primary: A respectably finish in Iowa could give him a second wind, but a lackluster performance there would likely be the end of the road.
--Ryan Struyk
Rick Santorum
His campaign so far: The former Pennsylvania Senator has participated only in undercard debates so far in the campaign. He’s focused in on bashing Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio over immigration, but hasn’t been able to break out.
What it will take to win the primary: Déjà vu in Iowa. Santorum is banking on a repeat of the last Iowa caucuses, when his campaign suddenly saw a dramatic rise to a slim victory in the state.
--Ryan Struyk
Jim Gilmore
His campaign so far: Gilmore announced his candidacy in a video posted to his campaign website. He’s made the decision not to campaign in Iowa but to focus his attention on New Hampshire where he has traveled several times.
What it will take to win the primary: A miracle. Since announcing at the end of July, he has missed getting his name onto several state primary ballots and he’s raised the least amount of all the candidates.
--Veronica Stracqualursi
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