Could Bush or Gore Win By Losing?

Nov. 1 -- As the presidential candidates approach Election Day neck and neck, there’s speculation that George W. Bush or Al Gore could pull a Grover Cleveland.

Cleveland is the last of three presidential candidates in history to get more votes than his opponents, yet still lose the election.

“The fact that [Bush vs. Gore] is a close election raises the specter,” says Neal R. Peirce, a syndicated columnist.

Contrary to what some people may believe, American voters do not directly elect the president. Instead, they vote for special electors from their state. It takes votes from 270 of the 538 members of the Electoral College to win the White House.

“Those of us who are critics of the system believe there would be severe credibility problems for someone who has just lost the election to win the electoral vote,” adds Peirce, co-author of The Electoral College Primer 2000.

A pair of professors at Columbia University believe that if this year’s race is close, a split decision between popular and electoral votes could happen.

Robert Erikson and Karl Sigman have crunched poll numbers, considered where Bush and Gore are most likely to win, and determined that Bush would probably need at least 51 percent of the votes cast for either candidate to get the majority of electoral votes needed for a victory. A small edge in popular votes would not do.

“Bush has big leads in several states, but they account for a more modest number of electoral votes,” says Erikson, a political science professor. “By contrast, Gorehas smaller leads in states that yield a greater number of electoralvotes. With a close popular vote, the electoral edge goes to Gore.”

Turmoil Possible

If that happens, it could produce political fireworks, observers say.

“There would be an outcry and, yes, there would be pressure and, yes, there would be demands that we reform the system,” says Curtis Gans of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate.