Poll: Bush, Gore in Dead Heat

Sept. 8 -- Al Gore and George W. Bush enter the decisive phase of the 2000 presidential race in a dead heat, but with Gore seizing an advantage on key issues and retaining his newfound competitiveness in personal appeal.

A new ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll finds each has the support of 47 percent of likely voters, with Ralph Nader at 3 percent and Pat Buchanan under 1 percent. Gore and Bush aren’t just tied, they’re also broadly acceptable: More than two-thirds think either would make a good president.

Sharp Gain for Gore

But beneath these even numbers lies a sharp gain in Gore’s position since midsummer. Before the conventions, Bush led in public trust to handle 10 policy issues; now he leads in just two. Gore led in just three issues; now he leads in seven. Similarly, in mid-July Bush led in six personal qualities; now it’s four. Gore had led in three; now it’s six.

Some changes on the issues are striking. In midsummer, the two were rated evenly on handling education; now Gore leads by 12 points. Gore trailed by 13 points on managing the federal budget; now Gore is up by five. Gore trailed by nine points on the economy; it’s also now Gore +5. And Gore trailed by 20 points on handling crime; now he’s down by two.

Views of Gore’s personality were encapsulated in a widely noted result a year ago, when 57 percent of registered voters called him “boring.” Now, with his emergence from Bill Clinton’s shadow, that has dropped by 16 points, and instead the majority, 56 percent, call him “interesting.” Still, it remains better for Bush, at 66 percent.

Most broadly, Gore’s favorability rating — the number of people who have a generally favorable opinion of him — is now 59 percent, his highest in ABCNEWS/Washington Post polls dating back eight years. Bush’s rating is essentially the same as Gore’s, 58 percent. It was 69 percent a year ago.

There’s a glaring gender gap in this poll, worthy of prominent notice. Among women, Gore leads by 18 points; among men, Bush leads by 20. That 38-point gender gap is the largest of the campaign to date, and it dwarfs the average, 13 points, in elections since 1980.

The gap is reflected in issues as well. Women favor Gore’s approach on 16 of 17 issues tested, all but two of them by double-digit margins. Men favor Bush, generally by smaller margins, on 11 issues; and Gore on just two.

Danger Zones

Perhaps most hazardous for Bush is that several of the trends run counter to his campaign’s message. Example: Despite RNC ads to the contrary, voter perceptions of Gore as “honest and trustworthy” have gained 16 points, from 47 percent in mid-July to 63 percent now. Gore and Bush are now tied in this measure.