Beat Me in St. Louis

ByABC News

October 7, 2004, 12:44 PM

WASHINGTON, Oct. 6, 2004  -- NOTED NOW

27 days until election day
2 days until the second presidential debate moderated by ABC News' Charles Gibson
7 days until the third presidential debate

NEWS SUMMARY

After talking to the spinners; listening to the pundits; reading the polls, the press releases, and the tea leaves, we believe the only sensible thing to do in summing up the impact of the vice presidential debate is to quote George Will's words from ABC News' primetime coverage:

" … Friday night there's the (presidential) debate itself and by that time this (debate in Cleveland) is going to seem as ancient as the Peloponnesian war. This will be a very forgettable experience."

It seemed a night to us when both men did some base solidifying, which both sides still need to do.

Cheney won the ABC News insta-poll, which also suggested more Republicans watched the debate than Democrats.

He also kept the Democrats from extending their Miami Momentum, thus taking at least some pressure off of his friend the president. And every day the team behind isn't obviously making up ground, they are losing.

And given that Bush-Cheney was hit with Bremer/Rumsfeld/CIA flaps right before the face-off, the veep avoided being swamped by that stuff — using his patented technique of answering the questions he wants to answer, rather than necessarily what is asked.

Thus, even though he was wrong about meeting Edwards before last night, and even though we weren't as impressed with the Howard Dean line as, say, Ken Mehlman was, we snap judge that it was a better night for the R's than the D's.

So/but turn all eyes to St. Louis and the Friday night fights.

While we wait to see what surprise the CIA has in store for the White House today, two big stories will likely dominate the political scene: President Bush's 10:00 am ET speech on the economy and terrorism that his campaign is billing as "important"; and a report (released at 2:00 pm ET) and accompanying public testimony (2:30 pm ET) from the head weapons inspector in Iraq that will show Saddam Hussein had no ability or concrete plans to create WMD but would have tried to create them if sanctions were lifted.

The President also heads to Farmington Hills, MI for a 3:15 pm ET rally.

Elsewhere, both Edwards and Cheney head to Florida for events — Cheney holds a noon ET rally in Tallahassee and a 3:55 pm meeting in Gainesville and Edwards holds a noon rally in West Palm Beach then flies to North Carolina for a rally before heading to New York City.

John Kerry is down outside of Denver for debate prep but appears in a taped segment on "Dr. Phil." Check local listings.

Laura Bush stumps in California and appears on the Tonight Show.

And Ralph Nader holds a press conference outside the "Skull and Bones" at Yale at 6:30 pm ET.

Today, the Media Fund launches new TV, radio and print ads in Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. They're a part of the Fund's campaign to target African-American voters.

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect:

The Wall Street Journal 's Greg Hitt writes that President Bush's "major" speech today is an attempt to regain momentum lost at last week's debate and redirect the conversation before Friday's debate. Bush will try to tie together his policies on terrorism and his policies on the economy. LINK

So is this speech today really "major?"

When pressed by ABC News' Karen Travers, a senior campaign official would NOT call it a major speech, deeming it "important."

Why is it important? How is it different?

There will be a different framework, the official said. — Bush will be going hard against Sen. Kerry's record. Bush will "clearly lay out" the differences between him and Sen. Kerry on the war on terror and the economy.

He will look at Sen. Kerry's record voting for higher taxes, his economic plan that would "derail economic progress," voting against weapons systems that are vital in the war on terror.

Bush will be focusing on the differences and we'll see different language/framework from the president, the aide said.

And we'll see how Team Kerry responds … .

The New York Times ' Edmund Andrews looks at President Bush's efforts to change the tax code, and the competing interests at war in any discussion of how to simplify it. LINK

The politics of Iraq:

The New York Times ' Bumiller and Wilgoren on the "political furor" over L. Paul Bremer's comments that more could've been done to stop the looting and violence in Iraq with more American boots on the ground there. They Note Bremer's attempt to clarify ("retrospective wisdom") and the White House's private boiling as Sen. Kerry went to town using Bremer's remarks as proof that the administration mishandled the situation. LINK

The Wall Street Journal 's Gerald Seib says "October surprises" like Bremer's comments have the power to change the trajectory of the campaign. He looks at five others that could move things in the next 27 days, from Afghanistan to a terrorist attack. LINK

USA Today 's Barbara Slavin writes, "Bremer's remarks put the White House on the defensive less than a month before the presidential election and added to the disagreements over Iraq among former and current administration officials." LINK

The Wall Street Journal 's editorial board thinks Bremer got his facts wrong, and chastises him for putting a foot off the reservation.

The Washington Post 's Balz and Wright wrap Kerry's use of Bremer yesterday. LINK

"Kerry questioned whether either Bush or Vice President Cheney is capable of acknowledging errors or correcting U.S. policy, after former U.S. administrator L. Paul Bremer said Monday that the United States needed more troops after the invasion to stabilize Iraq and stop the looting and violence that fostered the lawlessness that still plagues the country. Kerry said both men should be held accountable for misleading the United States about the war."

The head weapons inspector's report to be released today shows Saddam Hussein "posed a diminishing threat at the time the United States invaded and did not have … concrete plans to develop nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons," reports the Washington Post 's Allen and Priest. LINK

The New York Times ' Edward Wong reports that Iraqi interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi addressed the interim National Assembly on Tuesday and took "a darker tone on the state of the war," saying that the insurgency represents "a challenge to our will." He also said the Iraqi police are underequipped and lack the gravitas to control the situation, making security and reconstruction more difficult. LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: Beat Me in St. Louis:

We just love how the url for Washington University in St. Louis's student newspaper is "studlife."Debate prep, says the paper, is in full swing. LINK

Missouri voter registration deadline produced a scramble to sign up at the last minute, says our own Jonathan Greenberger. LINK

It's easy to register, but it's gonna be hard to get tickets for Friday night! LINK

Attention bookers: here's a list of debate events at the university. LINK

Apparently, Michael Moore's visit to campus is creating agita … LINK

Jo Mannies of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports "President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry are planning to arrive early for Friday night's presidential debate and stick around town afterward — perhaps the strongest signal in weeks that Missouri may once again be in play."LINK

The Kansas City Star reports a surge in voter registration across the state of Missouri as they reached the registration deadline. LINK

Why did Sean Hannity cancel a planned appearance? LINK

"Hannity cited personal reasons for his cancellation, said law student Ruth Hollander after speaking with the right-wing pundit over the phone yesterday. Hannity, Hollander said, requested a private jet to fly him to St. Louis for the speech, but then rejected 'several' different jets offered by a private donor. He told Hollander about a 'bad experience' with the prominent company that had manufactured all the jets offered for his trip."

"'[Hannity's agent] said he thought we should say that because of the short time frame involved, it didn't work out,' said Hollander. 'I said I didn't think that was the truth, and … I really felt we had met all of our commitments and we were going to be honest when asked.'"

"Hannity's travel arrangements are also causing a stir at Utah Valley State College, where he is scheduled to speak Oct. 11. The Deseret Morning News reported Saturday that when Hannity's original flight plan fell through, the college agreed to foot the bill for a private Hawker jet to fly him into town. Hannity told the Morning News the 'accommodations weren't arranged at his request' and he didn't 'want a penny' for his appearance."

A word of warning to all you vulnerable politicos out there — the Arizona State University's State Press reports that the university is doing everything it can to sell its image. LINK

Cheney versus Edwards: first takes:

"Vice President Dick Cheney and Sen. John Edwards quarreled Tuesday in a hard-edged debate over honesty, credibility and the war in Iraq, each accusing the other of distorting facts and purposely misleading voters," write Mark Z. Barabak and Michael Finnegan of the Los Angeles Times. LINK

From the Washington Post 's Romano and Harris: "Iraq and terrorism dominated a hard-hitting and sometimes personal debate Tuesday night between the vice presidential nominees, with Vice President Cheney accusing the Democratic ticket of lacking the judgment to lead, and Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) responding that Cheney and President Bush lack credibility." LINK

LINK
USA Today 's Susan Page thinks it was "fast-moving, largely substantive and at times quite fierce." LINK
The San Francisco Chronicle's Marc Sandalow writes that it's obvious both sides neither like nor trust one another. LINK
The Chicago Tribune's Rick Pearson calls it a "sharp-elbowed debate over the credibility to lead a country at war." LINK
The Chicago Tribune's Jeff Zeleny writes that it was "a fresh opportunity to carry on their bosses' bitter quarreling." LINK
Joseph Curl Notes "The same political pundits who proclaimed Sen. John Kerry the winner of the first presidential debate last night gave the nod to Vice President Dick Cheney, saying he had bested Senator John Edwards in their debate by clearly illustrating the large stature gap between the two vice-presidential candidates." LINK
Knight Ridder's Thomma and Stearns heard "sharp personal attacks delivered in unemotional tones." LINK
Walter Shapiro calls it the "ruckus at the roundtable." LINK
Bob Novak's headline reads: "Cheney hit Kerry, but only managed tie with Edwards." LINK
Can you figure out which headline is Deborah Orin's news analysis and which is her commentary? — "Cheney comes out swinging." And "Bush's man shows boss how it's done." LINK and LINK
The Raleigh News & Observer's Bonner and Christensen write, "The crackling debate was tough and substantive but civil …" LINK
The Philadelphia Daily News's Gar Joseph (in a piece about whether it matters who won) writes, "U.S. Sen. John Edwards shed his puppy-dog image. It never did square with the facts." And "Vice President Dick Cheney, meanwhile, confirmed that he is always going to be the grown-up in the room: gruff, confident and able to take the strap to a youngster who gets out of line."LINK
The New York Post 's Ian Bishop took a straw poll of 20 D.C.-area undecided voters (er … ok). They scored it a win for Cheney. LINK
The New York Times ' editorial board is super excited about the substance of the VP debate. LINK
USA Today 's ed board thinks both men gave "the sense that they'd be competent should they be forced to assume the presidency in crisis." LINK
A slew of Boston Globe opinion writers take a stab at who one the debate.
Lehigh calls it a draw: LINK
Cathy Young also ties it up. LINK
Joan Vennochi claims Cheney was on the defensive. LINK
And Derrick Jackson says "Dick Cheney was the grump." LINK
Democratic pollster Mark Blumenthal on the Post -debate polls: LINK
"My first impression, based largely on the ABC survey results, is that among the debate was essentially a 'draw,' in that it reinforced existing opinions of debate viewers. The CBS survey suggests a better performance for Edwards among uncertain voters, but the release leaves out a few details that might give us greater confidence in the result. If Gallup surveyed poll watchers last night, I can't find it online."
"As the ABC release notes prominently, they showed an overall 'win' for Cheney largely because Republicans were more likely than Democrats to tune in to the debate (a finding that indirectly supports the notion that Cheney's continuing presence on the ticket helps motivate the GOP base)."
Cheney versus Edwards: fact check:
Tom Shales thinks that Cheney's false claim he had never met Edwards before was the night's zinger. LINK
The New York Times ' David Rosenbaum offers up a fact check on Iraq and al Qaeda, weapons votes, al Qaeda, Halliburton, the costs and casualties incurred in Iraq, taxes, Afghanistan, jobs, and voting records: LINK
The Washington Post 's Kessler and VandeHei fact check. LINK
The New York Times acknowledges that the subways were NOT closed during the convention. LINK
Cheney versus Edwards: the battlegrounds and the voters:
The debate produced not significant change in opinion among voters who watched in Central Florida. LINK
Under a Cleveland Plain Dealer headline: "No K.O." is this: LINK
"The prime-time debate between Cheney, the Republican, and Edwards, the Democrat, ended so far short of a knockout punch for either contender that uncommitted voters will probably stay uncommitted for now."
"Debate full of punches" blares the Columbus Dispatch headline over an article that states Cheney and Edwards "gave not ground … " LINK
The Cincinnati Enquirer quickly looks ahead to Friday in its lede debate story. LINK
"The hard-hitting debate between Vice President Dick Cheney and Democratic rival John Edwards set the stage for what is likely to be more of the same in Friday's second televised presidential showdown between their bosses."
Philadelphia Inquirer political writer Dick Polman calls the debate "a bare-knuckled duel between drawl and monotone." LINK
The Philadelphia Inquirer's Landay and Borenstein do some stellar fact-checking. LINK
The front page of the Philadelphia Daily News is the veep candidates with their fists up under the headline "Nasty Boys: Gloves Off in Cheney Edwards Veep Debate."LINK
Maeve Reston of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports on Spin Alley. LINK
This Pittsburgh Post-Gazette sub-head sums it up: "Republican says Kerry on wrong side of defense; Democrat says war mismanaged."LINK
In the Register's take on the debate: State Democratic Party Chair Gordon Fischer didn't like the Vice President's comment about "some precinct chairman in Iowa": LINK
The Kansas City Star: "The vice presidential candidates' debate was marked by pointed personal attacks delivered in unemotional tones." LINK
Bill Lambrecht of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch on the debate: "Edwards, who often took the role of aggressor, also criticized Cheney for what he said was Cheney's repeated suggestion of a connection between Osama Bin Laden and deposed Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein." LINK
Erin Neff of the Las Vegas Review-Journal reports on victory bells ringing in both parties' ears. LINK
The Albuquerque Journal conducted a post-debate poll of New Mexican voters and found Senator Kerry taking the lead. In a survey of registered voters conducted Oct. 1-4, Senator Kerry was at 46 percent, 43 percent for Bush, and eight percent undecided. LINK
"The previous Journal poll, conducted Aug. 27 to Sept. 1, showed Bush with a 45 to 42 percent edge over Kerry, with eight percent of voters undecided."
Cheney versus Edwards: the spin:
What was up with Ken Mehlman's e-mail to supporters sent out early this morning?
For one thing, it mentioned Cheney's factually incorrect assertion that he had never before met Sen. Edwards.