Election could depend on voters' comfort level with nominee

— -- With less than six weeks to go until Election Day, Republican strategist Ed Rollins and Democratic strategist Robert Shrum debate the state of the presidential campaign, critique both candidates' TV ads and predict what's next. The two veterans of presidential politics joined a USA TODAY panel Tuesday at New York Ad Week, moderated by Washington Bureau chief Susan Page. On Wednesday, the status of Friday's presidential debate became uncertain. Comments have been edited for length and clarity.

On the debates

Q: What role will the debates play this year?

Shrum:Obama has an extraordinary chance to answer the experience question. If he stands up to McCain, does well in that debate, people think he can handle national security, he then potentially will hold the high ground, the commanding high ground of the economy and block off from McCain the capacity to slip away the national security into the White House. …

This election might be a lot like 1980, where you're not going to see it break until after the debates. If Obama does his job and people feel more comfortable with him and more comfortable with his experience, it will break toward Obama because it's a change election.

Rollins:I think this is very much like '80. The test there was the country wanted to get rid of (President Jimmy) Carter. … (But) there was real serious doubts about Reagan. Who was Reagan? He was a movie star, governor of California. …

He (Carter) debated just Reagan a week before the election. And after that night there was a segment of the electorate that was floating up here and it just dropped and it was over. It was literally over the day after the debate because Reagan had met the credibility test, that he wasn't the crazy that Carter had portrayed him to be, and the race was over.

If he (Obama) has the knowledge and appears calm and collected, and people walk off the stage and say, 'You know, I feel comfortable with him in the Oval Office,' then you may see a shift. …