Pennsylvania no slam-dunk for Democrats

FOREST HILLS, Pa. -- At Rep. Mike Doyle's annual picnic here in this Pittsburgh suburb, Janet Keane recalled coming home during the Depression, when "honest to God, there was nothing to eat."

Keane, 85, a longtime friend of the Democratic congressman, said last week that she's looking for someone who will spare her grandchildren that experience as she tries to decide between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain in the presidential election Nov. 4.

"I like McCain," she said. "But I don't like that he's a Bush man."

At the Jenkintown Jazz Festival a few weeks earlier in the Philadelphia suburbs, social worker Ron Fisher worried about Obama's prospects. "America is trying to find any excuse not to elect him because he's a black man," Fisher said.

The two conversations at opposite ends of the state sum up why McCain and Obama are continuing to compete fiercely for Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes.

'Have to win'

On paper, the state should be a slam-dunk for Obama: The last Republican presidential candidate to win the state was George H.W. Bush, the father of the current president, in 1988. Democrats also have doubled their edge this year in voter registrations from Republicans, up from a 600,000 lead over the GOP last year to 1.2 million as of last week, in part because the Illinois senator has been engaged in a massive effort to sign up new voters.

But anxieties about the economy and Obama have made for an unpredictable dynamic. Despite a 13-point lead that Obama enjoys in RealClearPolitics.com's compilation of Pennsylvania polls, his supporters here are only "cautiously optimistic," said Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato.

Republicans such as former governor Tom Ridge hope McCain's military record and conservative views on issues such as abortion will appeal to voters in a state where military veterans are about 14% of the population and Roman Catholics about 30%.

Democrats such as Fisher worry that Obama's status as the first African-American presidential nominee of a major political party could hurt him in a state where the only blacks elected to statewide office have been a few judges running on party tickets.