Oregon not really 'in play' this time

SALEM, Ore. -- Greg Fabos has been a campaign volunteer since supporting Eugene McCarthy for president 40 years ago. He says this is the most electric battle for the White House he's ever seen.

"I think people here are seeing that the country is in trouble, and they're ready to vote for change," the 66-year-old marketing consultant says.

The energy Fabos says he senses comes in spite of the fact that Oregon, for the first time in years, is being snubbed by the presidential contenders.

Neither candidate has made an Oregon campaign appearance.

There are few lawn signs and bumper stickers. And, since the primary election, neither campaign has spent any money advertising in the state, says Sarah Niebler, deputy director of the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project, which tracks political advertising nationwide.

"Oregon really is not in play," says Bill Lunch, chairman of Oregon State University's political science department.

While Oregon hasn't voted for a Republican president since choosing Ronald Reagan in 1984, it was considered a swing state in the past two elections, says Jim Moore, who teaches political science at Pacific University in Forest Grove, Ore.

In 2000, Democratic nominee Al Gore won Oregon by less than half a percentage point. Gore got 46.96% of the vote, while George W. Bush got 46.52%. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry defeated Bush 51% to 47%.

This time around, Lunch says, the state was in play until candidate John McCain's bounce from the Republican National Convention faded in mid-September. According to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 14, Democratic nominee Barack Obama is leading McCain 54% to 41%.

Door-to-door emphasis

More so than in years past, the campaigns are spending virtually all of their money in big battleground states, Moore says. Those include Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

In Oregon, "the McCain campaign is being run by guys with cellphones," Moore says. "That's a real surprise to me." He says the campaign has no Oregon director, and that all of its 11 designated field offices, listed as such on its website in late September, actually are existing Republican Party offices. McCain's Oregon campaign is being run out of its West Regional Headquarters in Nevada, Moore says.