Health care debate could affect 2010 races

WASHINGTON -- When anesthesiologist Andy Harris appeared on a cable news show last month in his white doctor's coat to discuss the health care debate in Congress, his message was about more than the pros and cons of the legislation.

Harris, a Maryland state senator who is running for a U.S. House seat, was also making a subtle political statement: The health care debate shaping up in Congress is likely to have big implications for the 2010 election.

"Health care has been pushed to the forefront," said Harris, a Republican whose race against Democratic Rep. Frank Kratovil is a tossup, according to the non-partisan Cook Political Report. "Almost regardless of what Congress does, it's going to be an issue for debate."

Fifteen months before the midterm congressional election, health care is appearing in candidate stump speeches and interviews — particularly by Republican challengers, such as Harris, running in districts recently claimed by Democrats.

That dynamic helps explain why a $1 trillion-plus health care bill stalled last week in Congress. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., is negotiating with skeptics in her own party, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said his chamber would not meet an August deadline to vote.

On Sunday, Pelosi told CNN's State of the Union that she remains confident a bill will pass the House. But Rep. Jim Cooper, D-Tenn., said on CBS' Face the Nation that Democrats have "a long way to go" before reaching a deal.

A top Senate Democrat, meanwhile, acknowledged there isn't enough support within the party to pass health care. "There are not the votes for Democrats to do this just on our side of the aisle," Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., said on ABC's This Week.

Obama has said he wants lawmakers to finish health care by the end of the year, in part because it could become mired in election-year politics. All 435 members of the House and 36 members of the Senate are up for election in 2010. "The election tends to shorten the life of the Congress," said Duke University political scientist David Rohde.