Trump elevates an ally in JD Vance and sets the course of the GOP's future: ANALYSIS

Former President Donald Trump tapped a fierce defender in the form of Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, to join his ticket -- and in doing so, is helping set the course of the Republican Party's future.

Vance is just 39 years old in a profession in which lawmakers in their 60s are considered youthful, meaning he has multiple political lifetimes ahead of him. And he's joining a ticket topped by a former president who can only serve one more term, offering Vance a massive platform to help steer the party at the end of a hypothetical Trump term in 2029.

And then, a leg up if he were to then seek the top job himself.

His views also strongly align with Trump's on issues from immigration to foreign policy to trade to abortion and more, with the former president cementing in his pick not just a rising star but also the party's dominant ideology in a post-Trump America.

"Trump wants to make sure MAGA outlives him," said Dan Eberhart, a Trump donor, referencing the "Make America Great Again" mantra that the former president popularized. "I think that was a big part of the choice."

Vance's selection may be even more indicative given who he beat out for the role.

Besides the Ohioan, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum were also thought to be in the top tier.

Rubio has long been considered a rising star in the GOP, though, at 53 he is over a decade Vance's senior, and he has long been viewed as a foreign policy hawk, a contrast to Trump's skepticism of international entanglements. And Burgum, a wealthy, 67-year-old former tech executive, focused his own short-lived 2024 bid on the economy before wading into culture war issues as a Trump surrogate.

"First and foremost, Trump was thinking of the next four years, and J.D. is a perfect partner to further an America First agenda. Second, it's clear J.D. is the future face of the party and MAGA movement," said Sean Spicer, Trump's first White House press secretary.

It didn't always used to be this way for Vance.

Vance, who had a hardscrabble childhood raised by his grandmother in Ohio, joined the Marines, went to Yale Law School and found fame as the author of "Hillbilly Elegy," a memoir that sought to explain Appalachia and its politics. Across interviews in 2016, he dubbed himself a "never-Trump guy" and said he didn't see Trump "offering many solutions."

However, he came around, a transition that was fueled, in his telling, by attacks on Trump and policies that were enacted during his first term in the White House. And he did not shy away from the former president.

Later in Trump's first term and during Vance's 2022 Senate campaign, the now-vice presidential nominee was a frequent pundit on the airwaves, including appearing on outlets not perceived to be friendly to Trump. That support, along with a friendship with Donald Trump Jr., the former president's eldest son, translated into an endorsement from Trump in a hotly contested GOP Ohio Senate primary.

Vance has returned the favor, echoing Trump's support for abortion policies to be left to states, urging a crackdown on illegal immigration, saying the 2020 race was "stolen" from Trump and claiming at one point that "I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or the other," mirroring Trump's suspicion of U.S. support for Kyiv.

Now, Vance will take his support for Trump and his policies to a whole new level. And while Trump's persona and ideology will likely dominate the ticket, it is his running mate with the longer runway in politics.

Bryan Lanza, a former Trump campaign official who remains in touch with the current team, said the former president was "absolutely looking toward the future" in picking Vance, saying the senator would "deliver the MAGA agenda for the next generation."

"In choosing Senator Vance as his running mate, President Trump has not only picked a person who is the best messenger to champion his policies, but he also picked someone from a new generation of leaders. Someone who can carry the Trump message not only for the next four years, but beyond," added veteran Ohio GOP strategist Mike Hartley.

Already, Republicans are speculating about Vance's 2028 aspirations, placing him ahead of big GOP names like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, both of whom ran for president this year but saw their bids flame out against Trump. On top of just the name recognition boost Vance will receive, running on a national ticket will also offer him a chance to expand his donor base, centered in Silicon Valley, and sharpen his already polished media skills.

Mike DuHaime, a GOP strategist who worked on former New Jersey GOP Gov. Chris Christie's presidential campaign, said with the announcement Monday, Vance "leapfrogs Haley and DeSantis for 2028 immediately, which means Trump is cementing his legacy long-term as well."

First, Trump and Vance will have to win.

Some Republicans were more skeptical that Vance would help. The Ohioan is a white man from a non-competitive state, and his ideology likely appeals to voters who are already in Trump's thrall.

"It’s a base pick," said Mike Madrid, an anti-Trump GOP strategist. "I don’t think it brings much. No one rally’s the white rural no college base more than Trump -- why not try to get more?"

Still, Ohio borders the key states of Michigan and Pennsylvania, and his heritage and personal story could resonate throughout the Rust Belt, other operatives suggested.

"Vance is a pick that screams win now. The newly minted VP nominee has a populist streak and is a double down on reaching middle class voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. If Trump wins just one of those states, Biden cannot win re-election," said Robert Blizzard, a GOP pollster who worked for DeSantis' presidential campaign.

Trump seemed to agree.

"I'm going to leave him in Pennsylvania," he told ABC News' Jonathan Karl, adding that Vance could also travel to Wisconsin and "a lot of other places where people are hurting."

Should the Republican ticket succeed, even critics of the GOP's direction under Trump appeared to admit that Vance's pick signified a party direction that would leave them fighting for influence.

Former Florida Republican Rep. David Jolly, who has denounced Trump, said the wing of the GOP more associated with former President Ronald Reagan could regain sway "by consistently challenging ideology and issues with a resiliency to outlast the Trump movement."

But in describing Vance, he noted the rising tide in the Republican Party aligns more with Trump's brand of politics, saying the Ohio senator is "a rising star full of ambition and masterful at capturing the leading edge of Republicanism -- in this case, populism with a chip on the shoulder."