How is the winter weather going to affect the Iowa Republican caucuses?

DES MOINES, Iowa -- It's been bitterly cold and snowy, with dangerous white-out gusts and wind chill numbers reaching the negative double digits -- and while the weather poses real-life dangers, it's had political implications, too.

In the run-up to Monday night's Republican presidential caucuses, more than 20 candidate events were canceled, postponed or moved virtually. The hopefuls themselves acknowledged that the freeze could affect how many folks turn out to vote in the first nominating contest of the 2024 race.

The unusual rules of the caucuses -- which are held at a specific point in time on Monday night and require lengthy participation -- aren't like normal primaries, and candidates often rely on extensive efforts to motivate their supporters to make it out.

"It's all indoors," front-runner Donald Trump said on Saturday, downplaying the weather. "So you're not going to have a problem. Just do not stay home. Grab all your friends, grab everybody you can and don't believe the polls. The polls have us winning by a lot -- pretend we're one down. Because if you do that, everyone's gonna get out."

Rival Ron DeSantis had this message on Saturday: "The blizzard is not going to stop us, we will fight. The wind chill is not going to stop us, we will fight."

Iowa political scientists, political leaders, voters and campaign strategists were split on whether, because of the weather, Monday night will again see steadily increasing turnout numbers or not.

"Caucuses are low turnout events anyway. So the people that would be deterred by cold weather would be people who probably wouldn't have gone for other reasons," Bruce Nesmith, a political Science professor at Coe College, told ABC News.

Kelley Koch, the chairperson of the Dallas County Republicans, said she was still anticipating enthusiastic participation.

"I know people who are going to snowmobile to caucus. In the farm areas, the [agricultural] areas, if the streets are unplowed, they are going to get on a snowmobile and go to their caucus site," Koch said.

In 2016, more than 186,000 votes were cast -- breaking the 2012 record of 121,000, which itself topped the 2008 record of 119,000. (The 2020 race, incumbent Trump sought the nomination and was essentially unopposed.)

On the Democratic side, voters set a caucus turnout record in 2008 when 239,000 people turned out when then-Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were running, far out-pacing the 124,000 who turned out in 2004. That number is also significantly larger than the 171,517 voters who showed up for the Democratic caucuses in 2016.

The Iowa experts and voters, in interviews with ABC News, also differed on their opinions regarding whom might most be hurt by the bad weather: Trump, who continues to capture the attention of a large swath of the base and is popular with those 65 and older; former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who performs best with those who live in the suburbs and independent voters, according to the final poll of likely Republican caucusgoers from the Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom released Saturday night -- or Florida Gov. DeSantis and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy.

Fifty-five percent of caucusgoers said they will "definitely" rather than "probably" caucus, according to that poll, even despite severe conditions outside.

There was also some evidence in that poll that DeSantis may have some of the most reliable support: 62% of his supporters said they'd definitely attend, while 56% of Trump supporters said they would and 51% of Haley's said the same.

Iowa GOP Chair Jeff Kaufmann, who will steer his third set of Republican caucuses on Monday, has sought to quell concern that the night could be derailed -- either by the weather or logistical issues around collecting and reporting the results (which infamously happened to Democrats in 2020).

Speaking with reporters on Saturday evening, Kaufmann did acknowledge, however, that Monday night's weather may mean the party won't break their 2016 turnout record.

"Almost everyone in Iowa is used to this type of situation," he said. "We're certainly precautioning them, but almost everybody knows how to handle the cold weather."

"Maybe we go from record setting from over 186,000 [votes] to a great turnout. But anecdotally, listening to people, I still think we're going to have a very robust turnout," he added.

While Monday's weather is on track to be unprecedentedly cold for caucus night, there have been caucuses before where temperatures reached negative digits amid blizzard-like conditions.

According to Des Moines Register archives, Iowa's first year atop the early nominating calendar was in 1972 -- the same year that snow piling and winds as high as 60 mph caused about a fourth of Democratic caucus sites to postpone their contests for at least a day.

Kaufmann told ABC News that it would be "virtually impossible" to move the date of this year's GOP caucuses because that would violate the schedule set by the national party.

Iowa state Rep. Heather Matson, a Democrat and past caucus volunteer, said that despite the cold and snow, a winning combination for candidates in the caucuses comes down to both enthusiasm and a strong organizational plan.

Influential evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats, who has backed DeSantis in the primary, agreed on that view.

"The best organization I've ever seen was Ted Cruz [in 2016, when he won]. And I knew Cruz's organization was going to perform. When I take a look at DeSantis' ground game, it's exponentially better than Cruz's," Vander Plaats told ABC News.

"And you got this snow and ice on the ground, you really have to want to get to the caucus to put your vote in. And I think the DeSantis people are motivated and are going to show up," he said.

The demographics of voters might also impact voter turnout, according to experts.

"To the extent that DeSantis and Trump are drawing on the more committed church-going vote, I think it [the cold] probably helps and hurts Haley, who is drawing from a more independent group," said Nesmith, the Coe College professor.

Adam Carros, the news director at KCRG in Cedar Rapids, added a note of ambiguity to what might happen: "Who's most impacted -- hard to say really. I would think it would hurt Trump slightly more -- his support is more rural and would enhance the 'he's going to win anyway' feeling."

But Trump's team has touted the enthusiasm of his backers.

One supporter, speaking with ABC News' Rachel Scott, spoke bluntly. She said she'd walk over "broken glass" to cast her vote.

"We have a very committed group of voters," Trump adviser Chris LaCivita recently told reporters, adding, "So we know the intensity favors us."

ABC News' Hannah Demissie, Andy Fies, Lalee Ibssa, Soo Rin Kim, Will McDuffie and Kendall Ross contributed to this report.