Why AP hasn't called the Pennsylvania Senate race

WASHINGTON -- Pennsylvania's Senate contest between Democratic incumbent Bob Casey and Republican challenger David McCormick is still too early to call.

McCormick has a roughly 31,000-vote lead, which has been dwindling as outstanding votes continue to be counted. The roughly half-percentage-point margin between the candidates also qualifies the race for an automatic recount.

McCormick overtook Casey with about 80% of the estimated votes counted just before midnight on Tuesday. Casey initially had a lead over McCormick when just about 40% of the estimated votes had been counted, propelled in part by mailed ballots that have historically favored Democrats. McCormick was doing better in votes cast on Election Day.

CANDIDATES: Casey (D) vs. McCormick (R) and three others

WINNER: Too early to call.

POLL CLOSING TIME: 8 p.m. ET Tuesday

ABOUT THE RACE: Casey hails from a well-known political family in the state. The son of a popular two-term governor, he served in statewide elected office as auditor general and treasurer before being elected to the Senate in 2006. McCormick is a West Point grad, Army veteran and former investment firm CEO who lost the GOP primary to Mehmet Oz in 2022. Sharp exchanges have punctuated the contest.

McCormick has accused Casey of being weak and a career politician. Casey called McCormick a wealthy, carpetbagging ex-hedge fund CEO. Pennsylvania Democrats have found success against GOP rivals in the recent Senate and governor's races.

John Fetterman beat Oz in 2022 by 5 points, and Gov. Josh Shapiro defeated Doug Mastriano handily that year as well, becoming the first governor to be elected to succeed a member of his party since 1966.

WHY AP HASN'T CALLED THE RACE: Casey still has a narrow path to victory.

___

Learn more about how and why the AP declares winners in U.S. elections at Explaining Election 2024, a series from The Associated Press aimed at helping make sense of the American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.