Consumer Confidence, 2010: Off to a Less Gloomy Start

Jan. 5, 2010 — -- Consumer confidence is off to a less-awful start in 2010, with the ABC News Consumer Comfort Index rising this week to its best in 16 months.

Better is far from good: The CCI stands at -41 on its scale of +100 to -100, far lower than its 24-year average of -12, much less its record highs a decade ago. But it's its best since September 2008, up 10 points since late October and 13 points better than its record low about a year ago.

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While final retail sales figures for December are yet to be released, one component of the CCI indicates a break in retailers' favor: Positive ratings of the buying climate rallied by 9 points from Oct. 25 to Dec. 20.

Since Christmas those ratings have moderated – but better views of personal finances have taken up the slack.

INDEX – Indeed 51 percent now rate their own finances positively, up 4 points in a week to a majority for the first time since May. That's 6 points better than its 2009 average and just 6 points below its long-term average in weekly polls since late 1985.

Ratings of the buying climate are holding steady at 28 percent positive, starting the year 9 points worse than the long-term average. But the third component of the CCI, views of the national economy, continue to weigh it down. They're just 9 percent positive, 29 points below average.

TREND – The CCI's signs of life follow a year of dubious records. The 2009 opening was -49, its worst annual start on record. The 2009 average, -48, was the index's worst yearly average. And the CCI bottomed out at -54 last Jan. 25, matching its record low.

The next milestone for the CCI is to exceed -40, something it's been unable to do for a record 90 consecutive weeks. And even then it'd be far from strong; the index hasn't seen positive territory since March 2007.

GROUPS – The CCI, as usual, is higher among better-off Americans, but has been negative across the board for 45 weeks straight, the longest such run in data since 1990.