Confidence Off the Floor - Barely

Dec. 23, 2008 — -- After six weeks locked in its worst stretch ever, consumer confidence has eased off the floor. But it's hardly cause for holiday cheer.

The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index stands at -48 on its scale of +100 to -100, up 4 points in two weeks and 6 points in three weeks from its record low, -54, at the start of the month. But those compare miserably to its 23-year average, -11.

Click here for PDF with charts and data table.

The CCI's six-week stretch at or below -50 was unprecedented: It's been that low only 11 times in 1,200 weeks of ongoing polls, 10 of them this year.

The gain this month may reflect a number of factors. In an effort to stimulate bank lending the Federal Reserve cut a key interest rate to below 1 percent for the first time; gas prices have fallen for 24 weeks to $1.65 a gallon, down from $4.11 at their peak in July; and retailers are slashing prices to stimulate last minute shoppers. On the other hand recession is well underway, with the highest unemployment in 15 years, depressed home sales and values and declining GDP.

INDEX – The CCI is based on Americans' ratings of the economy, their personal finances and the buying climate. Just 8 percent rate the economy positively, the weakest of the three measures, a point from its record low.

Indeed positive ratings of the economy have bounced between 7 and 8 percent for the last six weeks; they're down 23 points on the year and 31 points off the long-term average.

Twenty-four percent rate the buying climate positively, down 7 points this year and 14 points below average. Twenty-five percent or fewer have rated the buying climate positively for 38 straight weeks, the longest such run on record.

Forty-six percent rate their personal finances positively, down 12 points this year and 11 points off the average. Fewer than a majority have rated their finances positively for 22 weeks, the longest such stretch since 1992-93.

TREND – The slight relief isn't nearly enough to rescue a terrible year. At -48 the CCI is 6 points below its 2008 average – and in this year alone the index established or matched a record low four times; the previous low heading into 2008 had held for 16 years.