How to bet Denver-San Diego

— -- ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 6 games, starting with Thursday night's Denver-San Diego?matchup.

Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.

Matchup: Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers

Spread: ?Opened Denver -2.5; now Denver -3 (-120)
Total: ?Opened 44.5; now 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 70 percent Denver

Public perception: The defending champions are clearly the more public team. Last week's loss to Atlanta hasn't slowed that, even with head coach Gary Kubiak taking the week off -- especially with Trevor Siemian back at QB after the loss with Paxton Lynch. In addition, the public isn't likely to back the Chargers, who keep blowing leads.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps jumped on Denver -2.5 when the line first opened, but it has been more split at 3. Some books have gone to 3.5 (with -120 to take the Chargers 3.5), but if the public continues to back the Broncos, we should expect more sharps to take the Chargers at 3.5 (-110).

Dave Tuley's take:?The Chargers are 1-4, but they are 3-2 ATS and could easily be 4-1 or even 5-0. Granted, it's their own fault (shared by players and coaches) for squandering late leads. While it's scary to trust a team that keeps failing in the clutch, they've been competitive in every game and I expect them to do the same at home in prime time on Thursday night.

San Diego's offense is No. 7 in yards per game (and averaging 30.4 points). Although they take a step up in class against Denver's No. 9 defensive unit, the Chargers should be able to keep up with a Denver team that's only No. 20 in offense and dealing with the return of Siemian on a short week, plus being without Kubiak's playcalling. For our purposes here, I'll take the Chargers 3 (EVEN), but I'll personally be waiting to see if we can get 3.5. I certainly don't expect the Chargers to shut down the Broncos, so I also lean to the over as it seems the total has been set a little low with the Chargers 4-1 to the over and the Broncos 3-2.

The pick: Chargers 3 (EVEN)* (lean to over 45)

Rufus Peabody: The Chargers continued their good play -- and not getting rewarded for it -- in Oakland on Sunday, losing 34-31 despite outplaying the Raiders.

According to my metrics, the Chargers were fundamentally six points better than Oakland -- looking at the stats that are predictive -- but they blew a lead and lost their fourth nail-biter in five games, due in large part to a -3 turnover differential. Philip Rivers put up huge numbers, throwing for 359 yards on only 30 pass attempts. The Massey-Peabody model ranks San Diego 14th in the NFL, but the market is not nearly as high on the Chargers due to their 1-4 record. I think the market has the wrong team favored here, as Massey-Peabody makes the Chargers a 1.5-point favorite.

Pick: San Diego 3/ 3.5
Massey-Peabody line: San Diego -1.5

Erin Rynning:

No question that the Broncos' outstanding defense will be the best unit on the field Thursday night. More so, this Denver stop-unit especially excels against the passing game, which presents a sturdy challenge to Philip Rivers. Of course, the Chargers will be without offensive difference-makers Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead for the remainder of the season. Note that the Chargers have faced the Saints, Raiders and Colts in their previous three games. This Broncos defense is on an entirely different level. Meanwhile, the Denver offense is still very much a work in progress. Still, Denver is desperately inexperienced at quarterback. The offense is below average -- especially so, given that they've actually faced poor defenses (combined to rank in the bottom 10).

Recommendation: UNDER

Proposition Bets

21.5 completions by Trevor Siemian (O/U -110) John Parolin says: The Broncos are starting to move past the feeling-out stage with Trevor Siemian as a passer. Siemian's average throw in Week 1 against the Panthers was 5.0 yards downfield, a figure even Alex Smith would call conservative. Since that game, his average throw distance has increased in each game. Siemian has earned the confidence, completing over two-thirds of his passes with six touchdowns and three picks. He completed at least 22 passes in Weeks 2 and 3 before missing almost seven of the last eight quarters with a sprained non-throwing shoulder. Siemian hit the over against the Colts and Bengals, so where do the Chargers stack up? Only the Steelers and Falcons have allowed more completions than the Chargers this season (137 in five games), with the Chargers facing Alex Smith, Blake Bortles, Andrew Luck, Drew Brees and Derek Carr this season. Assuming Siemian still has a reasonable leash, San Diego has also allowed 105 completions on throws less than 10 yards downfield this season, an average of 21 per week without a single deep connection. Most of that stretch was with top cornerback Jason Verrett, who tore his ACL and will miss the rest of the season. Brandon Flowers will also miss Thursday's game with a concussion. One final note -- the big play is often the enemy of completion props, but only four teams have allowed fewer 25-yard plays than the Chargers this year. Siemian is in line for an efficient day. The play: Over 21.5 total points by Chargers (O/U -110) John Parolin says: The Broncos defense held opponents to under 21.5 in each of the first four games this season, before the Falcons scored 23 on Sunday. Matt Ryan threw for 267 yards in the win, becoming only the third quarterback to top 265 yards without a pick against the Broncos since the start of last year (and first in 2016). How did Ryan do it? Don't look at the traditional pass-catchers -- Ryan was 7-for-16 for 87 yards targeting wide receivers and tight ends, including a 2-catch, 29-yard day from Julio Jones. Ryan was 8-for-10 for 180 yards and a touchdown targeting his running backs, using speed mismatches with Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman to move the ball. Can the Chargers replicate this formula? Not particularly, ranking 22nd in receiving yards and 21st in yards per target to running backs. Some of that came with Danny Woodhead on the field, a place he won't be Thursday (injured reserve). Denver can shut down receivers and tight ends, and the Chargers aren't likely to feature backs in the passing game without Woodhead. Can San Diego run? The Chargers have the eighth-lowest yards per rush average in the NFL this season (3.7), and Orlando Franklin and Joe Barksdale are both on the injury report. Without Keenan Allen and Woodhead, it just doesn't look like the banged-up Chargers offense will be able to move the ball enough. The play: Under