Bill Belichick's sound decision
— -- It wasn't quite "fourth-and-2," but Bill Belichick's decision to take the wind against Peyton Manning in overtime Sunday night, denying Tom Brady first crack at the ball, certainly raised some eyebrows.
Before we dissect the decision, it's hard to believe this game even reached that point, as Denver had a 24-0 lead in "Manning-Brady XIV" thanks to the Patriots losing three first-quarter fumbles. It marked the 10th time in 14 meetings that one of the quarterbacks held at least a three-score lead over the other. But despite it being the greatest quarterback rivalry ever, we had never previously seen these two engage in a classic shootout played within a tight scoring range.
When it looked like things were slipping away for Manning, he made his best throws of the night on an improbable 80-yard touchdown drive to tie the game at 31-31 with 3:06 left. Manning has a record 40 fourth-quarter comeback wins and he was attempting to lead his 52nd game-winning drive, which would have set an NFL record ( Dan Marino also led 51 game-winning drives). That sent the game into overtime.
The rules have changed for overtime, yet every coach has basically used the same strategies from the old system. Belichick, like the maverick he is, became the first coach in 34 modified overtime games to take the wind versus receiving the ball first. He's the first to do it in any NFL overtime game since Marty Mornhinweg did so with the Lions in 2002. (That was during the old overtime system in which the first score immediately ended the game, which was Mornhinweg's/the Lions' fate).
Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz asked Belichick after the game whether any factors beyond the wind played into his decision. "Nope. That was it. If it hadn't been a strong wind, we would have taken the ball," Belichick said.
So this was the ultimate "take the wind" strategy. But was it logical to give Manning the ball considering that the Pats have Brady?
Manning's cold-weather myth
This was Manning's 19th career start with the kickoff temperature at 40 degrees or lower. In those 19 games, he has produced the following: a Julius Thomas and the other receivers had some drops and failed to create separation or any yards after the catch. Making Manning go into the wind without fear he would drive for a touchdown was bold, but a very defensible decision.
In 34 modified overtime games, only six teams (17.6 percent) have taken the opening drive for a game-winning touchdown. Just five teams kicked a field goal, including the Packers on Sunday. Green Bay kicked on fourth-and-goal from the Minnesota 2 and ended up tying instead of getting the win.
That's the problem with receiving the ball first. While those teams are 18-14-2 (.559), coaches are largely confined to three-down football. If a team gets the ball back while down by three points, it has four downs to use and no concern for time on the clock. That's a very unusual NFL situation, but not an unfavorable one.
The most common outcome in modified overtime is the kickoff team getting the ball back and attempting a game-winning field goal on overtime's second drive. Thirteen teams (38.2 percent) have attempted the kick, and 10 were successful. The average starting field position for the kicking team is the 32.2-yard line, so it gets a shorter field to drive, only needing a field goal.
Every situation has context that needs to be factored in, but if a coach trusts his defense, then why not kick off, get a quick stop and potentially allow the offense to only have to go about 50 yards for a game-winning field goal? In a game like Baltimore-Chicago (Week 11), when the field was a mess, this would have been the optimal strategy for John Harbaugh, but he elected to receive the ball. Baltimore, confined to conservative, three-down football, punted from midfield and the Bears drove for the game-winning field goal.
A muffed punt set up the ending to Sunday's Broncos-Patriots game, but Belichick's decision was sound and we should start to see more coaches follow suit. While Belichick said he did it solely because of the wind advantage, we may have seen a different strategy had Manning showed more effectiveness on the night. But in the end it worked out, and Belichick should be given credit for understanding the situation and making a bold move.
