Does blockbuster Ibaka trade make OKC the best team in the West?

— -- Just four weeks ago, the Oklahoma City Thunder took a 3-1 lead over the Golden State Warriors with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line.

Now, after losing that series, the drama continues for OKC with the surprising trade of Serge Ibaka to the Orlando Magic for a package headlined by guard Victor Oladipo and the No. 11 draft pick.

So is this the move that gets the Thunder past the Warriors and back to the NBA Finals?

Presuming the Thunder can re-sign All-Star forward Kevin Durant, an unrestricted free agent, it's worth asking whether the Ibaka trade provides the boost the Thunder need.

Comparing Ibaka and Oladipo

While they play different positions in different styles, and are at different points in their career, all-in-one statistics suggest Ibaka and Oladipo are broadly similar in their recent performance level. In fact, the multi-year version of ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) rates them almost identically -- both 1.4 points per 100 possessions better than a league-average player.

Box plus-minus, which seeks to predict plus-minus from box-score statistics, tells a similar story. Ibaka ( plus-0.8, per Basketball-Reference.com) has been slightly better over the last three years than Oladipo ( plus-0.3), but the younger Oladipo moved ahead last season (plus-1.8 vs. minus-0.1 for Ibaka, the worst since his rookie season).

Ibaka's statistics generally show diminishing athleticism in his mid-20s, which is also evident watching him play. His 2-point percentage has declined from 55.4 percent over his first five seasons to 51.6 percent the last two. In 2014-15, Ibaka was able to compensate by making a career-high 77 3-pointers at a 37.6 percent clip. When his 3-point accuracy slipped to 32.6 percent last year, his efficiency plummeted.

An All-Defensive first team pick every season from 2011-12 through 2013-14, Ibaka both blocked shots and grabbed defensive rebounds at career-low rates in 2015-16. He hasn't made either All-Defensive team the last two seasons.

Meanwhile, the aging curve is upward for Oladipo, who turned 24 in May. Last season was his most efficient as an offensive player. Using fewer of the Magic's plays (his usage declined from 25.2 percent to 22.9 percent), Oladipo posted both the best true shooting percentage and lowest turnover rate of his career.

He also was better than ever on the defensive glass (where his 14.0 percent of available defensive rebounds wasn't far off Ibaka's 16.2 percent) and as a shot blocker (where he excels for a guard).

While multi-year RPM projections suggest Ibaka (plus-1.3) should bounce back next season, Oladipo is still projected for a superior plus-1.5 RPM.

Projecting Oklahoma City

It's too early to tell exactly what style the Thunder will play next season after swapping a power forward for a shooting guard. (Oklahoma City also got a veteran power forward, Ersan Ilyasova, in the deal along with the rights to rookie big man Domantas Sabonis.) For that matter, there's still the "minor" formality of re-signing Durant. Backup guard Dion Waiters is also a restricted free agent.

We can still take a stab at what the Thunder's rotation might look like if Durant returns along with Waiters. Whether they start together in a small lineup or not, incumbent starters Durant, Steven Adams, Andre Roberson and Russell Westbrook will probably play the most minutes, along with Oladipo.

Reserve Enes Kanter figures to step into a slightly larger role, with Ilyasova, Waiters and Cameron Payne rounding out the primary rotation.

Here's how a possible distribution of Oklahoma City minutes might look, along with RPM projections for each player.

Based on the possible distribution, RPM pegs the Thunder 5.6 points per 100 possessions better than league average on offense (Oklahoma City was 6.0 points better in 2015-16) and 0.7 points per 100 possessions better on defense (plus-0.9 in 2015-16).

That yields an overall projection of 56 or 57 wins, up from 55 during the 2015-16 regular season. It's worth noting, however, that projection systems are designed to be conservative with their estimates because of the possibility of injuries or unexpected poor play. In the context of last year's RPM projections, the Thunder's 2016-17 projection looks a lot more impressive.

Before last season, just two teams were projected by RPM for more than 56 wins: the Warriors (58 or 59) and San Antonio Spurs (57). Of course, both teams blew past those projections, with Golden State going 73-9 while San Antonio settled for 67 wins.

Now, don't start penciling Oklahoma City in for 65-plus wins just yet. Those regular seasons were historic for a reason, and those two teams, like OKC, might find it difficult to hit those extreme heights.

In other words, the Thunder's early projection does suggest the team could be in the mix with the Warriors and Spurs for home-court advantage in the West next season. Imagine how differently the conference finals might have played out had Golden State needed to win twice on Oklahoma City's home court after falling behind 3-1.

There's a long way to go before the Thunder try to win the West next spring. Before thinking about matching up with the Warriors, Oklahoma City must get Durant's signature on a new contract.

Still, if everything plays out the way the Thunder expect, dealing for Oladipo might bring them that much closer to a return to the NBA Finals.