Why Connor McDavid is the NHL's most valuable player

— -- The Edmonton Oilers have waited a long time for this.

It has been more than a decade since the Oilers made the playoffs, despite drafting first overall four times and changing general managers, coaches and owners. This season, they are finally competitive, sitting in third place in the Western Conference as we head down the stretch toward the postseason.

All of the advanced stats point toward Edmonton's results being sustainable. Since shot attempts started being tracked by the NHL in 2007-08, the Oilers have never ranked in the top half of the league in any season. Currently, Edmonton sits in 15th place, taking 50.5 percent of the total shot attempts in their games. Their goal scoring and goaltending have also been playoff-worthy: The Oilers have scored the second-most goals in the Western Conference and sit eighth in 5-on-5 save percentage.

So, believe it or not, the Oilers are a pretty good team. Rave reviews will be given to head coach Todd McLellan and GM Peter Chiarelli for the turnaround, but a deeper inspection of Edmonton's numbers point to one player dragging his team to relevance: Connor McDavid.

The Hart Trophy debate

Some of the best entertainment that hockey fans will consume as the season comes to a close will be the debate over whether Sidney Crosby or McDavid deserves the Hart Trophy as the league's most valuable player.

Of course, they will both be deserving, but the major difference in their success is this: When Crosby is off the ice, the Pittsburgh Penguins have still been a pretty solid team. They score 51.7 percent of total goals at even strength, and produce more shot attempts than opponents (50.5 percent) when Crosby is watching from the bench.

This doesn't mean Crosby gets more help, rather that Crosby's presence gives his team a jump from decent to Stanley Cup-level -- at 63.1 goals for percentage and 53.2 Corsi for percentage -- when he's on the ice.

But if you are a believer that the MVP should go to the player who is the "most valuable to his team" instead of the one with the best overall season, you might lean to McDavid. Without him, the Oilers are not even close to the playoffs.

With and without Connor

The first reason is ice time. McLellan deploys McDavid for the fifth-most minutes of any forward in the league, and the Oilers need every second of his 21:16 per game because when McDavid isn't on the ice, the Oilers have the same Corsi for percentage as the Colorado Avalanche, the NHL's worst team.

Most star players raise the level of their team's play -- that's the point of having them, right? But McDavid is bringing his group along for the ride like few others in the league. Only two centers -- Carolina's Jordan Staal and Toronto's Tyler Bozak -- produce a bigger boost in goals for rate at even strength when they are on the ice. McDavid is a hair (0.05) above Crosby.

Edmonton's 2015 No. 1 overall selection has been on the ice for 57 percent of the total high-danger shots (shots close to the net) this season, as the Oilers have 207 of them when he's out there. Only two other regular forwards are over 50 percent, and they are his most common linemates, Patrick Maroon and Leon Draisaitl.

Another way to look at McDavid's impact is by his individual point percentage, which is the number of times the Oilers score with him on the ice versus how often he either gets the goal or an assist. In other words, if Team X scores 10 goals and Player Y has eight points, Player Y's IPP is 80 percent.

Well, Edmonton's super sophomore is 10th in the NHL in 5-on-5 points per 60 minutes, but of the 10 best even-strength producers, he has the highest IPP, at 84.1 percent. McDavid is 13th overall, with Johnny Gaudreau leading the league at 94.7 percent. Simply put: If the Oilers score and McDavid's on the ice, he's almost always playing a role in the goal.

McLellan hasn't given his young star center much help in the form of continuity. McDavid has played more than 50 minutes of ice time with five different line combinations. Here is how his four most frequent wingers have played with and without him:

What should we take away from this second set of data, other than the fact that McDavid, the NHL's leading scorer, is having an amazing second campaign?

Several players have turned in disappointing seasons. Edmonton signed Milan Lucic to a seven-year, $42 million contract with the hope he could play alongside McDavid and provide toughness and scoring. That has not even been close to the case, as Lucic has just 13 5-on-5 points. When the former Bruin and King played with McDavid, the young star was worse; when Lucic has been away from McDavid, his numbers have struggled mightily (and Connor's improved).

Edmonton probably did not expect a downward turn in the career of former No. 1 overall pick Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, either. He has scored just 26 points in 55 games and has been on the ice for the second-fewest goals for per 60 at even strength of any Oiler.

Looking ahead

Not everyone is having a down season. Draisaitl leads Edmonton with 20 goals, and the team's defense corps and goaltending have played much better this season than in the past. But it is difficult to see a deep playoff run for a team that relies so heavily on one player.

For example, when Minnesota Wild leading scorer Mikael Granlund is off the ice, Minnesota still produces 2.97 goals per 60 minutes. That's 1.08 more than the Oilers when McDavid is on the bench.

McDavid's age and the team's trajectory -- despite the bad Lucic contract -- should still have the Oilers feeling great about their position. They have accomplished what they were looking for in becoming relevant again.

However, Chiarelli should not try to enhance to rest of the roster by selling off future assets at the trade deadline to bolster the group around McDavid for a run this spring. The rest of the team is too far away from being a serious competitor to add one or two skaters and make a deep playoff run. Next offseason, when they aren't in a position of desperation, will be a more appropriate time to make improvements.

And if we're looking strictly at this season's player who has been the most valuable to his team? It's no contest; the choice has to be McDavid.