DFS best buys for NASCAR for Good Sam 500

— -- After back-to-back races on 1.5-mile intermediate ovals, it's a little something different this week.

Lately, the story at Phoenix has been domination. In 20 of the past 22 races at the track (spanning 11 seasons), a driver has topped 100 fantasy points.

Furthermore, in three of the four Phoenix races over the past two seasons, a driver has gone over 150 DraftKings points. Each time, that driver was named Kevin Harvick.

But let's dig a little further into the drivers to top 100 fantasy points at Phoenix dating back to 2005, when NASCAR began tracking all of the stats used in daily fantasy NASCAR scoring.

Two-thirds of the drivers to do so started ninth or better, and nine of the 21 started in the first two rows (fourth or better). Is it helpful to start up front? Absolutely. But it's not an outright requirement, as drivers to hit the century mark at Phoenix have started as far back as 29th.

That being said, there's two big ways you can get your fantasy points. One is to take drivers putting up big numbers of laps led and fastest laps. Phoenix gets those nearly every race.

The other is to get drivers with excellent start/finish differential numbers. That hasn't been happening as often recently. In the past five races there, a driver hasn't had a race with a differential of plus-20 or better. That happened six times in the previous three races and in each of the previous 17 races at the track.

That's a lot of numbers to throw your way, but soak it all in. Take some notes, break out your abacus and let's set our fantasy lineups together.

Remember, you get $50,000 to spend on your six-driver lineup, and it's not just your finishing position that nets points. Start/finish differential, fastest laps run and laps led also come into play.

Big spenders ($9,000 or more

To win, you need a stud in your lineup, maybe two. The win is nice, but often the top scorer isn't the race winner. Spend wisely, my friends.

Kevin Harvick ($10,800): I'm sticking where I started the week, by taking Harvick. He's been as dominant here as any driver in the circuit at any track. Over the past two seasons, Harvick has led 74 percent of the 1,155 laps that have been run at Phoenix. He's won four of the past five races at the track and really should have a fifth win had it not been for a race that was stopped early due to rain.

Harvick will cost you, and he's probably not going to put up the crazy number of laps led and fastest laps as he has been, due to his 18th-place starting position, but I think he's primed to get to the front based on his early practice speeds.

Kyle Busch ($10,000): I'm torn between front row starters Busch and his teammate Carl Edwards (who is $600 cheaper), though I like the higher end that Busch provides. While both have won at the track before, Busch has shown more of an ability to put up really good laps-led numbers, plus he's been in contention in every race this season, yet is still hungry for the first win.

While Busch has only led one lap in his past four Phoenix races, he has led 237 and 113 in separate races there. The 237 came in another race that he started from the pole and finished third.

Honorable mention: I don't think you can go wrong with Edwards, but an opportunity for some good start/finish bonus points comes from Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($9,200). He starts 26th, and our projections have him slated to finish eighth. He won at Phoenix last November and has finished eighth or better in four of his past five Phoenix starts, including a fifth-place run after starting 21st.

Save your cash

Denny Hamlin ($9,500): I've been cool on Hamlin since his Daytona 500 win, and he's only averaged 24 DraftKings points a race despite costing in the mid $9,000's. Hamlin had a run of three straight top-three finishes at Phoenix from 2012-13, but since then has averaged 24.9 points a race, and he's only led one of the past four races. Now, starting third, I think he's more likely to lose positions than gain any.

Martin Truex Jr. ($9,300): There's going to be a lot of races where I love Truex, but I don't think Phoenix and the other shorter, flatter tracks suit him. Last year, despite his resurgence, he didn't have a top-five finish on those tracks (Phoenix, Martinsville, Richmond, New Hampshire). In fact, his last top-five on those tracks came in April 2012. Truex hasn't broken the 50-point barrier on a short, flat track since the 2012 spring race at Phoenix.

Mid-salary tier ($6,500-$8,999)

Depending on how you spread your lineup with big-cost drivers you'll need a couple of these guys to make your lineup work. This is a mix of drivers whose value has fallen and those on the rise.

Who I love

Ryan Newman ($7,500): My opinion on Newman is always "buy when he starts closer to the back, sell when he starts closer to the front." Naturally, he ruins that idea by starting exactly mid-pack at 20th. Still, Phoenix is a track where he runs very well and puts up consistent numbers -- his past five races have been between 44 and 53.25 points. In two of the past three races, he started around here (20th and 22nd) and both times finished 11th. I'd sign up for that.

Ryan Blaney ($6,500): Blaney's still really attractive at this price, even if I don't love him starting 12th. The horrifying truth is that only two guys in this salary class start outside the top 20, and I don't really want to start either one. So I'm going to stick on Blaney, who was 12th-fastest in opening practice and fifth-fastest in the opening round of qualifying. It's still a very limited set of data for Blaney, so keep an eye on him throughout the rest of practices this weekend.

Honorable mention: Paul Menard's name might not be mentioned all day, but at $6,500 and starting 16th, he's probably a slightly safer play than taking the rookie, Chase Elliott, for $7,700 when he starts 17th. Last year, Menard finished 13th and 14th at Phoenix and averaged a solid-yet-unspectacular 36 fantasy points a race. If you need someone around his salary, he could fill a role.

Keep your distance

Kasey Kahne ($8,400): Kahne will have to go to a back-up car, so being credited with starting 24th instantly takes you to a negative number. Kahne was 22nd in opening practice, but then looked fast in the opening round of qualifying (third). You just don't know what you're getting with him, and for a fairly high price, you're just not getting the production you'd expect in Hendrick equipment. Dating back to last season: one top-five finish in the past 26 races.

Clint Bowyer ($7,400): While drivers like Blaney and Elliott haven't quite seen their value rise to their abilities, Bowyer has been the other way around. Once a championship contender who won a sprinkling of races, Bowyer appears lost early in his tenure at HScott, a one-year stop on his way to replacing Tony Stewart. Bowyer starts 35th, which is usually a spot I love for a quality driver, but this year he's started 28th or worse in all three races and hasn't moved through the field, finishing 33rd, 35th and 22nd.

Bargain-basement special (under $6,500)

Ty Dillon ($5,400): Dillon is back in Stewart's No. 14 ride this week and is the bare minimum value. He ran the No. 14 at Atlanta and finished 17th. Now he starts 28th at a track where he's finished in the top six in the past three Xfinity Series races. Putting him on your roster gives you a shot to take another top-tier driver as well.

Danica Patrick ($6,000): I'm not sure how often, if ever, I've suggested Patrick as a fantasy play, but this week I like her starting from 36th. While not spectacular, she's averaged about a 21st-place finish over the past three Phoenix races. If she shows some improvement in Saturday's practices, she's a low-risk add to your roster.

Regan Smith ($5,500): With Blaney, Dillon and Patrick costing so little, hopefully you don't need another low-cost driver; but in keeping with tradition of giving you three in this section, I'm going to go with Smith. He was better than his 31st-place starting spot in practice and hasn't run a Cup race at Phoenix since 2012 (strangely, with Phoenix Racing), but finished 20th and 24th in his two races there that season.