How Embiid's new deal could work, plus Philly's other options

ByBOBBY MARKS
October 10, 2017, 10:55 PM

— -- Editor's note:? Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers agreed to a $148 million extension on Monday that includes incentives -- such as millions of more dollars for making the All-NBA team -- and protection against injury, with specific details on those clauses still unreported. This piece has been updated to reflect the news.

The evidence against Embiid receiving a lucrative extension from the 76ers was overwhelming: two seasons (164 games) missed due to a recurring right foot issue and a third season cut prematurely with a left knee injury that eventually resulted in a March surgery. Embiid also did not play in a back-to-back last season as the Sixers monitored his minutes. Until recently, Embiid had not been cleared to participate in 5-on-5 in practice and still has not played in a preseason game.

But Philadelphia has a franchise-altering talent on its roster who, when healthy, can change the landscape of a game. If the Sixers didn't lock him up before the season started, he would have hit restricted free agency and other teams could've forced Philly to match all kinds of tricky deals.

What were the Sixers' options during extension negotiations, and how might Embiid's incentive-based and injury clauses work in his new contract? Let's take a look.

The minutes clause

The Phoenix Suns' Alan Williams recently signed a three-year, $17 million contract that guaranteed the center $6 million in the first year but zero protection in years 2 and 3. Williams (currently out with a knee injury) could see the protection increase to $1 million in each year if he played in 1,600 minutes in the prior season and met a body-weight clause.

While Philadelphia was unlikely to put body-fat-percentage language in an extension for Embiid, the 76ers could put in a minutes clause that protects the team in future years.

For an Embiid extension, Philadelphia could've signed him to a four-year, $113 million max contract with the first-year salary of $25.3 million guaranteed.

Embiid would have no protection for years 2 through 4. The protection would increase to $10 million for each season if the center plays 1,400 minutes* the prior season.

For example, if Embiid played in 1,400 minutes during the 2018-19 season, then $10 million of his $27.3 million salary in 2019-20 would be guaranteed. As a tradeoff, Embiid's representatives could request a July 7 trigger date for the remaining compensation in each season guaranteed.

*The minutes are based on Embiid playing in 55 games and averaging 25.4 MPG.

Total: Four years, $113 million (max)

2018-19: $25.3 million (fully guaranteed)

2019-20: $27.3 million ($10 million guaranteed if Embiid plays 1,400 minutes in 2018-19)

2020-21: $29.3 million ($10 million guaranteed if Embiid plays 1,400 minutes in 2019-20)

2021-22: $31.3 million ($10 million guaranteed if Embiid plays 1,400 minutes in 2020-21)

Incentive-laden extension

There is only a small handful of players who have bonuses in their contract.

Putting bonuses based on games played, minutes, statistical achievements or postseason honors would protect Philadelphia only to a degree. The maximum allowed in bonuses cannot exceed 15 percent in each season, so Philadelphia would be restricted on the incentive amount in an Embiid extension.

The 76ers could've offered Embiid a four-year, $60 million contract with the opportunity to earn $2 million of unlikely bonuses each year. The total pact could reach $68 million. The contract would be less than the extension that Rudy Gobert signed last October.

Here is how Embiid could earn an extra $2 million per year in this scenario:

  • For playing in more than 55 games and combined points, rebounds and assists averaging more than 25 total, Embiid would earn $1 million. Embiid met the criteria last season statistically but fell short because of games played.
  • For playing in more than 55 games and have a defensive rating less than 100, Embiid would earn $1 million. Last season, Embiid had a defensive rating of 99.1.

Total: Four years, $60 million (possible $68 million after incentives)

2018-19: $13.5 million (fully guaranteed, with incentives leading to a possible $15.5 million)

2019-20: $14.6 million (fully guaranteed, with incentives leading to a possible $16.6 million)

2020-21: $15.6 million (fully guaranteed, with incentives leading to a possible $17.6 million)

2021-22: $16.7 million (fully guaranteed, with incentives leading to a possible $18.7 million)

Even with Philadelphia dangling $2 million in per-year incentives, the contract would still be a fully guaranteed $60M even if an injury were to occur.

The Brook Lopez model

Back in 2015, Brooklyn structured the three-year Brook Lopez deal to include language in case Lopez missed games due to an injured right metatarsal.

Even though Lopez had played in 72 games in 2014-15, Brooklyn had concerns about rewarding the center with a lucrative contract only to miss games because of the same injury that shortened his season in 2011-12 and 2013-14.

What the Nets and Lopez agreed upon was a three-year, $64 million contract that guaranteed $19.7 million in the first year but included protection language that would reduce compensation in years 2 (50 percent) and 3 (25 percent) if Lopez were to injure the same right foot, not appear on the active roster for 62 games and average fewer than 15 MPG in 2015-16.

For Brooklyn to receive cap relief, Lopez's contract would need to be terminated after the 2015-16 season but only because of the right foot injury and if he failed to meet the criteria.

Lopez would play 73 games in 2015-16, and his contract would become guaranteed for the next two seasons.

Here's the trouble for Philadelphia in structuring a contract for Embiid: Do you protect against the foot or the knee?

The 76ers could've offered Embiid a $113 million max contract with the first year guaranteed at $25.3 million. If Embiid were to fail to appear on the 76ers' active roster in 2018-19 for fewer than 51 games due to his prior right navicular foot injury, Philadelphia would then be allowed to reduce the remaining compensation owed to 50 percent in each year of the remaining three years. To receive cap relief, Philadelphia would have to terminate Embiid's contract after the first year of the contract.

In essence, Embiid would be guaranteed $70 million (first year salary and 50 percent in each of the next three seasons), and the 76ers would receive a cap hit of $13.7 million, $14.8 million and $15.7 million from 2019-20 to 2021-22.

Total: Four years, $113 million (max)

2018-19: $25.3 million (fully guaranteed)

2019-20: $27.3 million ($13.7 million guaranteed)*

2020-21: $29.3 million ($14.8 million guaranteed)*

2021-22: $31.3 million ($15.7 million guaranteed)*

*If Embiid appears in fewer than 51 games during the 2018-19 due to his prior right navicular foot injury, then Philadelphia can terminate his contract prior to the 2019-20 season, with $44.8 million over three years for Embiid remaining on its books.

The blank check

General Manager Bryan Colangelo would've had many sleepless nights if the decision was to extend Embiid at $100 million without injury protection in the contract. Writing a blank check to Embiid is the same as throwing darts with a blindfold and hoping you hit a bull's-eye. A miss on this could leave the organization's future tied up in a player sitting on the sidelines once again.

With that said, Philadelphia could still have structured a contract in the four-year, $70 million range without any injury protection and find a happy medium. The contract represents half of a maximum contract but gives Embiid the guarantee of $70 million even if he suffers a setback.

Philadelphia would still have financial flexibility if Embiid had another injury, since the Sixers have seven players on rookie contracts and JJ Redick and Amir Johnson on expiring deals.

Agreeing to this type of contract would put Embiid back on the free-agent market at 27 years old, still in the prime of his career.

Total: Four years, $70 million

2018-19: $17.5 million (fully guaranteed)

2019-20: $17.5 million (fully guaranteed)

2020-21: $17.5 million (fully guaranteed)

2021-22: $17.5 million (fully guaranteed)