Grades: Who wins Hawks-Pacers-Jazz trade for PGs and picks?
The Deal
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Hawks get: 2016's No. 12 pick (from Jazz)
Jazz get: Guard George Hill (from Pacers)
Atlanta Hawks: B-minus
As has been widely discussed, the Hawks were headed toward making a choice between Teague and backup point guard Dennis Schroder at some point in the next 12 months. Both Schroder and Teague are entering the final season of their contracts, and both figure to become far more expensive as free agents -- Teague unrestricted, Schroder restricted, if he and Atlanta can't come to a contract extension this fall.
I project the No. 12 pick as worth about $14 million in production above his salary. That's more than the difference in going from Teague with Schroder as a backup to Schroder with a backup; Atlanta can sign with the additional cap space this deal created (a little less than $6 million) -- in other words, the trade makes sense from that perspective.
The Hawks could also use that newfound space to re-sign Kent Bazemore if he gets a big offer as an unrestricted free agent. Because Atlanta only has early Bird rights on Bazemore, the Hawks will almost certainly have to use cap space to sign him, and they were likely to have about $17 million for that purpose, according to current cap projections. Now Atlanta can pay Bazemore a salary starting at more than $20 million. (Whether that's a good idea is a different question, but it's probably better to have the option.)
I still have my concerns about whether Schroder is the right choice as Atlanta's starting point guard. His erratic decision-making figures to be more problematic as a starter than it was when Mike Budenholzer had the option of bringing the more reliable Teague back in the game. But once the Hawks made that choice, a deal like this was a good outcome.
Indiana Pacers: C
Two years ago, with Paul George sidelined nearly all season following his compound leg fracture, George Hill used a career-high 23.8 percent of the Pacers' plays and simultaneously posted the second-best true shooting percentage of his career (.579) while handing out 8.9 assists per 36 minutes.
Indiana's response to that was to sign Monta Ellis, which in conjunction with George's return shifted Hill back to the spot-up role he has occupied most of his career. His usage dropped to 15.8 percent, and Hill was also less efficient (.555 true shooting).
I'm not sure why Indiana didn't trust Hill in a playmaking role, but now the Pacers have swapped him for a point guard, Teague, who is a weaker defender and outside shooter (both made 40 percent of their 3s last year, but Hill has been more accurate over the course of his career) but has a longer track record as a playmaker.
Because of the whole range of skills, ESPN's real plus-minus sees this as a downgrade for the Pacers. Hill has consistently rated above average, while Teague was slightly worse than average last season.
On the positive side, Teague is two years younger than Hill. There's some concern about how Teague will fare once his vaunted quickness starts to wane, but his improvement as an outside shooter gives him a chance to remain valuable into his early 30s. That's the timetable covered by a possible renegotiation and extension that could keep Teague in Indiana beyond the final season of his current contract.
If the Pacers still have cap space left over -- they'll start with a little more than $25 million -- they can use some of it to increase Teague's 2016-17 salary while simultaneously extending his contract at a lower price than he'd likely command in free agency. That process, utilized by the Denver Nuggets with Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari last year, gets Teague the money sooner while giving Indiana more flexibility.
A renegotiation and extension were never realistic for Atlanta because the Hawks will probably need their cap space to re-sign Bazemore or sign a replacement. Indiana may have more available space because the Pacers can exceed the cap to re-sign starting center Ian Mahinmi for more than his $7.6 million cap hold.
Utah Jazz: B-plus
From a skills standpoint, Hill has long been an obvious fit for the Jazz, who were also linked to Teague before the trade deadline. Because Utah wings Gordon Hayward and Rodney Hood are effective with the ball in their hands, the Jazz are best off with a point guard who can space the floor. Hill fills that role; he can also run the offense and has the size to fit in well with Utah's defensive scheme.
At 30, Hill is probably a little older than Utah would prefer, but he can help bridge the gap to Dante Exum if the Australian point guard returns successfully from the torn ACL that sidelined him last season. Because of their size and skills, Hill and Exum can comfortably play together in the backcourt.
Since the Jazz have ample cap room, adding Hill's salary isn't really an issue (they'll still have nearly $25 million left when this deal is completed in July). And Utah has enough youth on the roster that another prospect wasn't necessarily a big need. The Jazz are ready to start winning now, and Hill increases their 2016-17 potential.
In fact, I think this move solidifies Utah as one of the five best teams in the Western Conference next season.
Like Teague, Hill is also entering the final season of his contract, and the one concern here is that the Jazz's payroll could escalate quickly in 2017-18, when Rudy Gobert is up for a new deal and Hayward can opt to become a free agent.
It's possible that a renegotiation and extension could help Utah, too. The Jazz probably won't be able to spend all of their cap space this season, and paying Hill now could keep his contract more reasonable in 2017-18 and beyond if he wants to stay in Utah.
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