What's next for OKC after big Oladipo and Adams contracts?
— -- The Oklahoma City Thunder are reportedly locking up two of their young starters with long-term contract extensions: Steven Adams and Victor Oladipo.
Are these good deals for OKC? And what do they mean for the future of the Thunder?
Let's take a look.
Projecting Adams and Oladipo
Barring these extensions, Oladipo ranks ninth and Adams 18th in my projections of 2017 free agents.
That's interesting because Adams is expected to get the more lucrative extension, in line with conventional wisdom about the two players.
Those ratings for Adams and Oladipo are impressive in the context of their youth. Oladipo is 24 and Adams 23, suggesting both have plenty of room to grow. Oladipo, the No. 2 pick in the 2013 NBA draft, made a dramatic jump in his advanced stats last season. Adams' breakthrough came in the playoffs, where he emerged as a two-way force in the middle.
As a result, my multiyear projections show both players continuing to add value. In 2017-18, the first year of their extensions, I project Adams at 4.6 WARP and Oladipo at 7.2. The following season, Adams improves again to 5.4 WARP while Oladipo settles in at 6.8.
Based on those projections, Oladipo in particular looks like a potential bargain. I forecast his value at nearly $65 million over the first two seasons of his extension, more than the maximum salary he could make over that span (an estimated $50 million based on current salary-cap projections). Yet Oladipo is reportedly taking a deal that will pay him about $11 million less than his potential maximum over that span, assuming standard 7.5 percent raises.
Adams' deal would be closer to market value. The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski reports the two sides are working on the framework of a four-year, $100 million deal that would be close to the projected maximum (which is a little more than $107 million).
So barring a cap spike, Adams couldn't have gotten much more in restricted free agency, and he doesn't yet look like enough of an offensive threat to be the kind of star player worth more than the max.
Still, since possible changes to the collective bargaining agreement likely will make it easier for restricted free agents to solicit offer sheets from other teams, it's possible Adams could have gotten a maximum offer next summer. The Thunder have headed off that possibility and could be saving much more on Oladipo if he has a strong first season in Oklahoma City.
Thunder likely to opt out of 2017 free agency
When Oklahoma City extended the contract of star point guard Russell Westbrook in August, I speculated that could be the first step toward trying to add another star in free agency next summer. Extending Adams and Oladipo probably takes the Thunder out of 2017 free agency.
Already, Oklahoma City's moves have signaled that preserving cap space isn't a priority. The Thunder gave a guaranteed 2017-18 salary to free agent Ronnie Price, and then opted not to stretch Price's cap hit when they cut him before opening night.
Possible changes to the collective bargaining agreement?would also have made it more difficult for Oklahoma City to clear max-level cap space. ESPN's Zach Lowe has reported that one possible tweak is changing the formula for how cap holds for players coming off their rookie contracts, such as Adams and Oladipo, are calculated. The change Lowe mentioned would have increased their cap hits from a combined $21 million to nearly $26 million, a major hit to the Thunder's flexibility.
In fact, Oklahoma City would probably have been looking at scarcely more cap space than the non-taxpayer midlevel exception, so extending Adams and Oladipo for more than their cap holds might not cost the Thunder much in terms of purchasing power next summer.
Assuming Adams' extension gets completed, Oklahoma City now has more incentive to agree to an extension with its third eligible starter, wing Andre Roberson. Roberson has the smallest potential cap hold of the three players, but with the Thunder now likely to operate over the cap, that doesn't really matter. Oklahoma City must only determine whether Roberson will take the security of an extension for less money than he's likely to command as a restricted free agent.
With its core potentially locked in through Westbrook's possible free agency in the summer of 2018, the Thunder will have to hope this group is competitive enough to convince Westbrook to re-sign in Oklahoma City. Initial returns have been mixed.
The Thunder are off to a 3-0 start, but they've gotten only one convincing win over three opponents who finished with 23 wins or fewer in 2015-16. Even beating those opponents has required Herculean efforts from Westbrook, who is averaging 38.7 points, 12.3 rebounds and 11.7 assists and has two triple-doubles in his first three games.
Despite Westbrook's heavy offensive load (he's using 40.2 percent of the team's plays while on the court, which would be a modern NBA record), Oklahoma City ranks 21st in the league in offensive rating, though third defensively on a per-possession basis.
Oklahoma City needs more offensive contributions from Adams and Oladipo to remain competitive once the schedule stiffens, starting with this week's road trip to face the L.A. Clippers and Golden State Warriors.
