Everything you need to know as Orioles and Blue Jays meet

— -- After an intense finish to the regular season, which saw both American League wild-card spots clinched on the season's final day, the playoffs are finally here, with the Orioles visiting the Blue Jays to open the festivities.?

Will Toronto rule at home, or will it be Baltimore marching on to the AL Division Series?

Go inside the numbers and matchups that will decide Tuesday night's game, and then vote for which team will win at the bottom of the page.

Inside the pitching matchup

When Tillman is on the mound:?Buck Showalter goes with the steadier hand of Tillman over the hot hand of the unpredictable Ubaldo Jimenez (who pitched 6? one-hit innings against the Blue Jays on Sept. 29). It's not clear Tillman is completely healthy after missing three weeks in late August and early September with shoulder bursitis. His average fastball velocity in his last start was 90.1 mph, well below his season average of 91.7 -- although he limited the Blue Jays to two runs (one earned) in 5? innings in that outing. Perhaps as a result of the decline in velocity, he has been throwing fewer fastballs down the stretch -- his season rate was 56 percent, but he has been below 50 percent his past three starts. He pitches up in the zone with the fastball, which leads to a high fly ball rate, and utilizes a conventional four-pitch repertoire. He didn't show any platoon split this year (.323 wOBA versus lefties, .326 versus righties).

Of course, if any team is going to turn a wild-card game into a bullpen game, it should be the Orioles. Showalter may not ask Tillman to go much more than one time through the order, perhaps going to Jimenez or Dylan Bundy for a couple innings, and then hoping to get to his late-game relievers. Brad Brach has pitched two innings five times this year and Zach Britton has gone more than three outs seven times, including two innings against the Blue Jays in a July extra-inning game. At the minimum, Showalter should be asking three innings out of those two. -- David Schoenfield

When Stroman is on the mound: Some believed John Gibbons would go with Francisco Liriano?because the Orioles, despite all their right-handed power, have the lowest OPS in the AL against southpaws. Instead, Gibbons goes with the guy who delivered a clutch effort in Game 5 of the Division Series against the Rangers last year. Stroman is fun to watch -- a short righty with a six-pitch repertoire. He has gone to his sinker and cutter more this year, throwing those pitches more than 50 percent of the time, while mixing in his fastball, curve, slider and changeup. His game is all about keeping the ball down and getting grounders; he had the highest ground ball rate of any qualified starter in the majors. He has been very good his final 13 starts, posting a 3.24 ERA and allowing just seven home runs in 83? innings. Facing the team that led the majors in home runs, Stroman's ability to limit the big fly will be the key.

As for late-game relief, the Jays' pen struggled down the stretch, including three late-game meltdowns the final week. Closer Roberto Osuna pitched six times in the season's final nine days and twice allowed two runs. Setup man Jason Grilli allowed six runs in his final three outings. That's why you may see Liriano in relief and possibly even Marco Estrada on three days' rest. -- Schoenfield

Player in the spotlight

Manny Machado: The All-Star third baseman was injured when the Orioles made the playoffs in 2014, so his lone postseason trip came when he was a 20-year-old rookie in 2012. He hit .158 in six postseason games that year, so you know he's chomping to do something big. Machado didn't match his monster first half, sliding from a .944 OPS to .798, in part because he started chasing more pitches out of the zone. Machado feasts on fastballs, hitting .345/.398/.659, and has a much higher slugging percentage on pitches in the upper third of the zone, so look for Stroman to throw him a lot of offspeed stuff and sinkers at the bottom of the zone. -- Schoenfield

What will decide tonight's game

How they handle the heat: No two teams hit fastballs for home runs more often than the Orioles and Blue Jays. Baltimore led the majors with a 5.0 HR percentage against fastballs, while Toronto was second at 4.1 percent. Tillman has allowed a 1.9 percent home run rate against his fastball this season, compared to 3.5 percent against his other pitches. --? Ken Woolums, ESPN Stats & Info

Choosing sides: Who will win?

Where the series stands

It's all or nothing for these two teams as the winner moves on the face the Rangers on Thursday in Texas, and the loser can start making offseason tee times. --? ESPN.com