5-on-5 predictions: Will Cavs tie the series? What's wrong with Curry?

— -- Can LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers even the NBA Finals on Friday?

What's wrong with Stephen Curry? And do the Cavs need Kevin Love?

Our 5-on-5 team forecasts the Finals entering Game 4.

1. What's your take on Steph Curry's play so far?

Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: Offensively? I don't have a problem with it. As long as he's on the floor and running the offense -- making his cuts and making the right decisions -- Cleveland is obsessed with his whereabouts and that opens up things for everyone else, just as it did in the first two games.

Tom Haberstroh,  ESPN Insider: He's hurt -- or at least I don't think he's anywhere close to 100 percent. His player efficiency rating has fallen from 29.1 against Portland to 24.1 against OKC to 13.0 here in the NBA Finals. My guess is that he's wearing down and just trying to get to the finish line. His  bowing out of Team USA only confirmed how bad his knee is right now.

Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: I'm concerned, because it has been three games now. Is it the physical defense the Cavs are throwing at him off the ball? Is it lingering injury problems? A bit of both? Whatever the reason, he is pressing on offense and getting torched on defense. But, you know, it's Steph Curry. He'll probably score 50 on Friday.

Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: There's no question he has been below his own standards. While his true shooting percentage in the Finals is still well above league average, he is also averaging five turnovers per game. He needs to find a way to get more shots up, as he has taken only 13 attempts per game. When he got going in Game 3, it was already too late.

Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: I'm not that worried about it. Given his dependence on outside shots, Curry is going to be higher variance than most superstars. When his 3-pointers fall, Curry will inevitably look better.

The one thing that surprised me about Game 3 was that Curry usually is able to compensate with some other production. Besides a couple of steals, that wasn't the case on Wednesday.

2. What's your take on the Kevin Love situation?

Pelton: Unfortunately, his missing Game 3 has set up to cast Love as the scapegoat if the series regresses to the mean in Game 4, even if the Cavaliers still win. I do think bringing Love off the bench is the prudent play for Tyronn Lue, but with the understanding his role may have to ramp up if Cleveland's starters (inevitably) don't dominate Golden State the way they did on Wednesday.

Elhassan: Cleveland got to this point with big contributions from Love, but this series is just a poor matchup for him. That's not an indictment on Love, the Cavs roster or the coaching, but merely an acknowledgment of a very NBA thing: the playoffs are heavily matchup driven.

This series shouldn't be a referendum on Love's value, but I will say this -- hoop heads have been begging for LeBron James to go to the 4 full time for years, dating back to his early days in Miami, but he's resisted the notion (save for some memorable playoff performances). If he were to agree to be a 4 moving forward, then Love would become expendable.

Engelmann: Love's absence certainly didn't seem to hurt in Game 3, although it's tough to know how much of the Cavs' increased intensity was just a product of playing at home. If you're Tyronn Lue you have to ask yourself whether to plug him right back into the starting unit after the Cavs had such a good first quarter in Game 3.

Doolittle: When he is ready, he's got to play. Cleveland isn't going to win four games against this Warriors team by killing the role of its third-best player. And while Richard Jefferson played well and fit well, let's not get too worked up over that. He was plus-11 in a game the Cavs won by 30. There was a lot more going on than RJ.

Haberstroh: I applaud the NBA for taking this matter seriously and not fudging the rules so a superstar can play on the Finals stage. He should come off the bench when and if he returns so the Cavs can match the Warriors' speed. Love's scoring skill set is redundant next to Kyrie Irving and James, but it is necessary next to Matthew Dellavedova and Iman Shumpert.

3. What's the most important thing to watch for Cleveland going forward?

Pelton: Their defensive energy level. The manic intensity -- and improved focus -- with which the Cavaliers defended both on and off the ball in Game 3 made life difficult for the Warriors in ways somewhat similar to what the Oklahoma City Thunder did in the conference finals. Can Cleveland sustain that for 48 minutes if required, particularly with just one day off between games?

Doolittle: The 34 points off turnovers and 17 offensive rebounds in Game 3 were markers of an ideal Cleveland performance in this matchup, and that's got to continue. But so too does the defense. According to tracking by ESPN Stats & Information, Cleveland contested 70 percent of Golden State's 3s on Wednesday. That's huge.

Engelmann: The Cavs need to bring the same energy they brought to Game 3 to the remaining games, and it'll be interesting to see if they can take it to Oakland. They were winning battles for loose balls and had some nice transition buckets, which you need against a team that's as good at half-court defense as the Warriors are.

Elhassan: Keeping LeBron at the 4, and making sure that there's enough defensive subsidization to cover for any liabilities on the floor. Another area of concern could be minutes and rest. The bulk of the Cavs' damage inflicted in Game 3 came from six players, and the sixth (Shumpert) wasn't particularly good. It's rare to see a game be a blowout and have so many minutes from the starters, so it will be interesting to see how fresh the Cavs look.

Haberstroh: Can LeBron sustain his great shooting? Well, adequate shooting. He shot 4-for-8 on jumpers from 15 feet or more in Game 3 and looked confident. His jumper is a bellwether for the Cavs' success. When he hits at least half of them, the Cavs are 23-6 this season.

4. What's the most important thing to watch for Golden State going forward?

Pelton: Their rotations. As I wrote about, Golden State has been consistently outplayed in this series with its starting lineup on the court -- albeit not as dramatically as in Game 3. The Warriors should turn to Draymond Green at center early and often no matter who the Cavaliers have on the court.

Doolittle: Curry and Klay Thompson are averaging a combined 28 points in the three games. We've seen too much from them to assume anything but an imminent eruption -- from either or both of them. But if that 28 number doesn't soar, the Warriors won't win.

Engelmann: This is probably the point where they should worry about Curry's performance -- he is scoring just 16 ppg with 5 turnovers per game in this series. They've obviously shown that they can win even when he's not playing great, but it should still be one of their top priorities to get their MVP more shots, and it'll make everyone's lives easier if he gets going.

Elhassan: Defense. Defense. Defense. Everyone was fixated on the poor offensive showing in Game 3, but the story of the game was that the Warriors couldn't stop anybody. They have to do a much better job on the outset of defending and communicating on the help side.

Beyond that, I thought Kerr made an immense tactical error in Game 3 by going back to their "big" lineup with Andrew Bogut to start the second half, despite the mismatch. Golden State should jump at any opportunity to go small, and going small is what got the Warriors back in the game in the first half. How long Kerr sticks with his traditional starting lineup (if at all) will be something to watch.

Haberstroh: How much longer does Steve Kerr hang onto the starting lineup with Andrew Bogut? The Warriors are plus-38 in this series with Green at the 5 without another traditional big, and minus-18 with Bogut on the floor. The swap of Andre Iguodala for Bogut is overdue.

5. Which number is closest to your own estimate?

A. Golden State 77 percent likely to win series ( FiveThirtyEight)
B. Golden State 79 percent likely to win series (betting markets; PredictWise)
C. Golden State 84 percent likely to win series ( ESPN's Basketball Power Index)

Haberstroh: A. I'm just not confident that Curry's knee is healthy enough to snap out of it. I see a guy who's playing it safe and running in circles rather than right angles. That's not a good sign. Regular-season Curry hasn't showed up.

Elhassan: B. Game 3 was a defensive aberration in terms of effort and execution, and I don't expect it to repeat. Curry doesn't have to have a breakout game offensively, but instead play within the context of the offense. He either needs to continue to draw massive attention or catch the Cavs slipping and strike at that moment, like a boxer who goes 11 rounds conservatively jabbing before delivering the knockout punch at the first moment his opponent lowers his gloves.

Doolittle: A. I am not budging from my pick of Cavs in six. Cleveland's physical defense is key and that might mean counting on the officials to swallow their whistles a little bit. The Warriors seemed awfully fixated on their poor start in Game 3, which leads me to believe the first 10 minutes of Game 4 will be the most telling of the series.

Engelmann: C. I think the Warriors, and especially Steph Curry, will come out with a vengeance in Game 4, and it'll be a very close game. If Cleveland can come close to replicating their Game 3 performance, I think the series will go to a seventh game, which the Warriors should win because they have home court. If the Warriors win Game 4, it'll all be over in five.

Pelton: C. As impressive as Cleveland was on Wednesday night, I think that merely shifted my view of this series back to the original outlook. The Cavaliers might now have two chances to get a needed win in Oracle Arena, while the Warriors can take an overwhelming lead if they steal a game in Cleveland.

BONUS: Who's your early NBA Finals MVP favorite?

Elhassan: Everyone for Golden State was terrible in Game 3, so I'm sticking with Andre Iguodala, my pick from the first two games.

Doolittle: LeBron James. There should be a law against a man over 30 staring eye-level at the rim. That just should not be possible. In any event, he has clearly been the best player in this series.

Pelton: I guess Draymond Green? Green was as off as the Splash Brothers in Game 3, but if the Cavaliers go back to defending him with Tristan Thompson when Kevin Love is on the court, that could help his performance going forward.

Engelmann: That's a tough question now given that the favorite before Game 3, Draymond Green, put up a stinker with only six points. I think Curry will play closer to form from now on and will probably win Finals MVP.

Haberstroh: Draymond Green. He has played the best on the team that is up 2-1. If Kerr adjusts and plays more Green at the 5, it'll be his to lose.