Sifting through the Riviera field for DFS picks

— -- LOS ANGELES -- After covering last week's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, I've made the beautiful trip south to cover this week's Northern Trust Open.

That means I've been beyond spoiled by ridiculous scenery and brilliant golf courses.

It also means I've received a few more emails and tweets from the DFS gamers.

I don't mind it; in fact, I enjoy interacting with golf fans and trying to help them with their fantasy rosters. But here's the problem: When people know I'm at a tournament and expect some inside knowledge as to who might perform well, I always have to let them down easy.

You see, I can pore over recent statistics and examine annual course performances. I can even try to glean which players have their games together versus those who are simply hopeful.

I can't, though, walk up and down the driving range and figure out who's going to contend during a given week.

Nobody can. Not even the players themselves.

I was speaking with a PGA Tour veteran Monday night who has enjoyed some nice success on the West Coast swing so far this season.

"You always play well out here, don't you?" I asked him. Really, it was more small talk than trying to gain any sort of inside knowledge.

"I have no idea," he replied. "I feel like there are some weeks I think I'm going to play well and I don't, then there are other weeks I feel like I'm not going to play well and I do. I can't figure it out."

If he can't, it's pretty unreasonable for anyone else to believe they can figure it out, either.

That's not to suggest you should stop reading this column anytime soon. It doesn't mean you should start making selections by throwing darts.

It simply means you should be realistic with your expectations.

Think about it: If you went to an NBA shootaround, you'd hardly glean enough information to know which players were going to light up the stat sheet in the next game. If you attended an NFL walk-through, you wouldn't know which guys were about to put up big numbers on Sunday afternoon.

It's no different in golf.

I spent about four hours walking up and down the Riviera range Tuesday afternoon. I can report that nobody looked as if they'd unequivocally challenge for the title this week, just as nobody was shanking it all over the yard.

So we'll have to rely on stats, memory and, yes, even a few hunches as we look into which players to select for this week's event.

Big draws (Over $8,500)

Jordan Spieth ($13,200). I recommended him last week, and by Sunday he'd finally found his swing. This is one of his favorite courses so I like him even more this week.

Justin Rose ($10,800). In speaking with Rose last week, I got the sense he was basically using the event as a fun tune-up alongside his buddy Justin Timberlake. And yet, he still contended -- which should tell us a lot about where his game is right now.

Bill Haas ($9,200). Another guy I liked last week who finished top 10, a past champion here and one who should contend again.

Big fades (Over $8,500)

Sergio Garcia ($10,100). I don't really dislike him this week, I'd just rather take a wait-and-see approach with his game -- and there are other players of similar value I like much better.

Adam Scott ($9,500). Ditto the Garcia section. He has made only one start so far this year -- a T-56 at the Sony Open.

Medium draws ($7,000-$8,500)

Kevin Na ($8,000). You could probably win a lot of money picking Haas, Na and Charles Howell III every week. A trio of consistency.

Charles Howell III ($7,600). What? Like you thought I'd leave him off the list after that last comment? After taking a week off, he's severely under-priced this week.

Medium fades ($7,000-$8,500)

Matt Jones ($7,700). He finished a season-best T-11 last week, which might make him a popular pick here, but there are too many other solid players at similar value.

Hunter Mahan ($7,600). Fade, fade, fade. Mahan's game isn't where it needs to be right now -- and until he gets it fixed, he's going to stay in this category for me.

Slight draws (Under $7,000)

Ernie Els ($6,900). One of the last players to leave the practice green Tuesday afternoon was the Big Easy. That might not mean he has figured out his stroke, but he has shown glimpses that he's close. At this price, he's too enticing to pass up.

Zac Blair ($6,900). He's always going to be a guy who struggles on the big ballparks, so he'll have to strike on the right weeks. Riv should be right up his alley.

Slight fades (Under $7,000)

Pat Perez ($6,900). Whatever he's trying right now apparently isn't working. He's one of my favorite interviews in the game for his honesty, but with only three made cuts in nine starts, stay away for now.

Camilo Villegas ($6,400). Throughout his career, Villegas has been one of the PGA Tour's streakiest players. He's running cold right now, though, with five straight missed cuts.