What Smart's deal means for Kyrie and future Celtics moves
For restricted free agent Marcus Smart, getting a four-year, $52 million deal from the Boston Celtics at a point in the offseason where only the Sacramento Kings had the ability to make him an offer of that size qualifies as a win. Can this deal also be a win for the Boston Celtics?
Let's take a closer look at where re-signing Smart leaves the Celtics -- who have had a relatively quiet offseason -- for 2018-19 and beyond.
Fair value for Smart
While this deal probably feels a bit like settling for Smart, who told reporters after the season that he feels he's worth more than the $12 to $14 million annual salary range they were thinking, a larger contract was always going to be difficult to find this summer with few teams possessing cap space.
Smart's leverage in negotiating with Boston was the possibility of taking his one-year qualifying offer and hitting the market again next summer, which was realistic because that $6.1 million qualifying offer wasn't far below Smart's market value. To match this four-year deal, Smart would have had to get a little more than $15 million annually on a three-year deal next summer, which might have been possible with more money available.
The Celtics had to weigh the chance that Smart taking the qualifying offer would all but guarantee his departure. Few players have settled for the qualifying offer and then re-signed with the same team on a long-term deal the following summer. And since Smart would have become an unrestricted free agent, Boston would have lost the ability to match any offer.
A salary of $13 million a year is a lot for a player who doesn't have a clear path to the Celtics' starting five. Smart is more likely to remain in the energizer role off the bench he's played for Celtics teams that have reached the Eastern Conference finals the last two seasons.
Nonetheless, if you believe the impact ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) credits Smart for having on the team's performance with him on the court, it could be a bargain. My projections based on a combination of RPM and my wins above replacement player box-score metric show Smart worth about six wins per season over the life of this contract, production that would be valued at $46 million over the three seasons I project -- about $15 million a season.
The downside for Boston is that paying Smart will push the team into the luxury tax for 2018-19.
Where Celtics stand for 2018-19
Re-signing Smart gives Boston 14 players under guarantee for next season. Second-year guard Abdul Nader has $450,000 of his $1.4 million minimum salary guaranteed through Aug. 1, at which point the full amount guarantees. If the Celtics keep Nader, as ESPN's Bobby Marks notes, that would finalize their roster aside from two-way spots and give them a payroll in the ballpark of $127 million. (The exact figure will depend on how Boston structures Smart's new contract.)
The Celtics will likely enter the season at about $3 million more than the luxury-tax line, which would translate into a modest tax bill of $4 million to $5 million but could have larger implications in the future. Boston would be starting the clock on the repeater tax, which kicks in when teams have paid the tax in three of the previous four seasons. That looms large for a Celtics team whose payroll figures to balloon when Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum sign extensions to their rookie contracts and if Kyrie Irving re-signs next summer.
Boston could dodge the tax by moving forward Marcus Morris, who's making $5.4 million in the final year of his contract, before the February trade deadline. (Trading center Aron Baynes, who recently re-signed, would also get the Celtics out of the tax but might be more difficult to do with Baynes' player option for 2019-20.) So it's worth watching whether younger forwards Semi Ojeleye and Guerschon Yabusele prove capable of filling Morris' role.
If the front office's work is indeed done for now, Boston's 15-man roster will look similar to last season's. The Celtics' two additions so far have been first-round pick Robert Williams and backup guard Brad Wanamaker, a European star coming to the NBA for the first time. Of course, as compared with the group that got within a game of last year's NBA Finals, Boston is adding a pair of All-Stars: Gordon Hayward, whose season was ended by injury in the opening minutes of his first game for the Celtics; and Irving, coming back from spring knee surgery.
LeBron James' departure for the Western Conference means an opening in the East, won by James' teams each of the last eight seasons. (Boston was, in fact, the last non-LeBron team to reach the Finals, way back in 2010. Only Rajon Rondo from that roster is currently under NBA contract.) I think the Toronto Raptors' addition of Kawhi Leonard makes them a slight favorite if Leonard reports to the team and proves healthy, but the Celtics are also right in that mix along with the Philadelphia 76ers.
Irving and Rozier heading for new contracts
Smart taking the qualifying offer seemed desirable for the Celtics from one perspective -- it would have given them another year to figure out their backcourt rotation and what it will be paid going forward. Keeping Smart in the fold gives Boston options.
Irving can be an unrestricted free agent next summer if he declines a player option, while backup Terry Rozier is eligible for an extension coming off his strong postseason in place of Irving. If the two sides can't come to terms, Rozier will become a restricted free agent.
Given Smart's ability to defend multiple positions, there will probably be enough minutes to go around for the Boston backcourt even with Hayward cutting into those available on the wing. The question is whether there will be enough money to go around if Rozier expects to be paid like a low-end starting point guard. If he is re-signing with the Celtics, Irving will surely command a max deal, which would mean a projected $12.6 million raise.
If Irving returns, Boston might have to choose between Rozier and Smart because paying two backup guards like low-end starters could prove untenable. However, re-signing Smart still makes sense under that assumption because of the possibility of using him in a larger trade. The Celtics' potential pursuit of Leonard was complicated by their lack of mid-range salaries between their stars making max money (Hayward, Irving and Al Horford) and younger players on rookie contracts.
While Leonard is now presumably off the table, Boston has long been rumored to have eyes for Anthony Davis should he ever come available in trade ahead of his potential 2020 foray into unrestricted free agency. In that case, having Smart's salary would make it easier to build a package that doesn't include any of the Celtics' current All-Stars. So though Boston's summer has been quiet, the Celtics' future will likely be anything but that.
Related Stories
ABC News Live