Steele: Predicting the Big Ten standings

The Ohio State Buckeyes have the experience to win back-to-back Big Ten titles. But Wisconsin and Penn State boast enough talent to make a case for the top spot in a conference loaded with bowl contenders. How will it all play out?

Here are Phil Steele's projections for the Big Ten's final standings:

Editor's note: This article was adapted from Phil Steele's college football preview magazine, which is available here.

EAST

Ohio State loses some big-time talent, but I think quarterback Dwayne Haskins could be an upgrade over former quarterback J.T. Barrett, and the rest of the units are loaded with talent. Ohio State has to travel to both Penn State and Michigan State, but last season the Buckeyes had a combined 1,053-478 edge in yardage versus those two teams, so they are capable of winning both road tests. In 2012, Ohio State went 12-0; in 2014, the team won the national title; and in 2016, the Buckeyes made the playoffs. It is an even-numbered year, so I will call for their third playoff berth in five years, because they are the most talented team in the Big Ten.

The expectations for head coach Jim Harbaugh have been huge at Michigan, and despite ranking as high as No. 12 in the AP poll in 2015, No. 2 in 2016, and No. 7 last season, the Wolverines have finished no higher than third place in the Big Ten East. They also have not had great quarterback play, but they add Shea Patterson from Ole Miss, and he is joined by great surrounding talent. The Wolverines were No. 127 on my Experience Chart with just one starter back on defense last season, but they move up No. 37 this year and have nine starters back on defense. The schedule is tough and they will have to beat Ohio State to win the Big Ten East, but they are legitimate Big Ten contenders.

No one expected Penn State to win the Big Ten in 2016, but the Nittany Lions did it despite not being favored in six games, and they got to the Rose Bowl. Penn State loses star running back Saquon Barkley and two of the top three wide receivers, and it has only three starters back on defense, with seven of the top eight tacklers moving on. Even so, the Nittany Lions remain national title contenders and are 14-0 at home over the past two years. If they stay unbeaten at home, that would mean wins over Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin, giving Penn State a great shot at a second Big Ten title in three years.

In Michigan State's disastrous 3-9 season in 2016, the Spartans were actually plus-35.4 yards per game. Last season, a lot of signs were pointing up, like a plus-8.5 on my Stock Market Indicator and minus-3 Net Close Losses. While they were about the same at plus-34.6 yards per game in Big Ten play, they jumped to 10-3, finishing just one game out of first place. The Spartans did benefit from plus-4 Net Close Wins, and they now have a minus-2.5 on my Stock Market Indicator. The best numbers in their favor are going from eight returning starters to 19 and from No. 129 on my Experience Chart to No. 13. Michigan State avoids Wisconsin out of the West, hosts both Ohio State and Michigan and is one of four prime contenders in the East.

The Terrapins dominated Texas on the road and then went through their usual quarterback injuries, even starting 5-foot-8 fourth-stringer  Ryan Brand at one point. The loss of top pass-rusher Jessie Aniebonam versus Texas was equally big for Maryland. The Terrapins go from No. 96 to No. 35 on my Experience Chart and bring in two highly touted transfers on defense, and they also get their injured players back. I do not see them breaking into the top four, and they do face my No. 9-rated schedule. With better health, they can get back to a bowl game.

Indiana went just 5-7 last year in Tom Allen's first season as head coach, and it has just 10 returning starters (three on defense), losing the quarterback and star wide receiver. Mark the Hoosiers down for seventh place and move on, right? As my friend Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast, my friend!" Indiana has two solid quarterbacks and might be better at that position in 2018. The Hoosiers had minus-3 Net Close Losses last year, so they were just three plays away from an 8-4 season. Allen did wonders with an inexperienced defense as Indiana's D-coordinator in 2016, and he likes the talent. Eight of my nine sets of power ratings call for the Hoosiers to make a bowl; Indiana also makes my Most Improved list.

While Rutgers made a big jump in 2017, going from 0-9 to 3-6 in Big Ten play, the Scarlet Knights only went from minus-231 yards per game to minus-206 in league play. The Knights beat Illinois and Purdue out of the West in 2017, but those two are replaced on the schedule by Wisconsin and Northwestern. Things will look good for Rutgers early, and it could be favored in four or five of the first six games. But the Knights will need some big upsets down the stretch; they finish with Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State.

WEST

The Badgers had the talent and my No. 70-rated schedule last season (all five road foes had losing records), and six of my nine sets of power ratings had them going 12-0, which they did. Wisconsin moves up to No. 3 on my Experience Chart this season, led by running back Jonathan Taylor, the nation's best offensive line and two-year starting quarterback Alex Hornibrook. This time the road games are tougher, with Penn State, Michigan, Iowa and Northwestern, but the Badgers are still my pick to win the West.

I like the Hawkeyes' offense and their defensive line. Kinnick Stadium at night has proved to be the great equalizer: Iowa upset No. 2 Michigan in 2016; and last season, No. 4 Penn State needed a fourth-down touchdown pass on the last play to escape, and Iowa soundly beat No. 3 Ohio State 55-24. Iowa had a much tougher schedule in 2017 and went 8-5, and while it's just the seventh-best Big Ten team in my Power Poll, the Hawkeyes avoid Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State and host Wisconsin and Northwestern. If they continue their Kinnick magic, the Hawkeyes could find themselves back in the Big Ten title game.

Northwestern got off to a slow start last season at 2-3, but then reeled off eight straight wins. As long as quarterback Clayton Thorson returns in time for the season (torn ACL in the bowl game), the Cats are legitimate contenders in the West: They have 14 returning starters and the third-most experienced team in the Big Ten (No. 25 on the Experience Chart). Northwestern does have tough home games versus Michigan, Wisconsin and Notre Dame, as well as road trips to Iowa and Michigan State, so the Cats could be underdogs in as many as five games.

Last season, Tom Herman stepped in at Texas, and fans were excited for a rebirth, expecting a quick turnaround. Texas won its bowl game to finish 7-6. I mention this to show that things do not always happen overnight. That said, in head coach Scott Frost's first year at UCF (2016), the team went 6-7 before going 13-0 last season. Frost leads a Huskers team that is vastly improved, with 15 starters coming back. The return to some option football and from 2017's injuries makes the Huskers even more experienced. Nebraska should open 3-0, but it's the only West team that draws three of the top four teams out of the East, and it has the five toughest Big Ten road games.

The Gophers were just No. 116 on my Experience Chart in 2017, with P.J. Fleck going through the normal first-year head coach growing pains. Even so, Minnesota had two Net Close Losses and was basically one play from a bowl game. This year, the Gophers are again No. 116 on the Experience Chart. But Fleck made big strides in Year 2 at Western Michigan, and he should see strong improvement this year in Minneapolis.

Jeff Brohm usually exceeds my expectations, and he liked what he inherited on defense last season. Purdue went from allowing 38.3 points per game to just 20.5 and won the Foster Farms Bowl. This year, the Boilermakers are No. 32 on my Experience Chart, but the defense needs a rebuild. Purdue draws Ohio State and Michigan State out of the East and hosts the league's top three teams, so most of the winnable games are on the road (five Big Ten away games). Brohm will need to pull a few upsets to get Purdue back to a bowl, but it's possible: the Boilermakers had three upset wins last season.

In 2015, Bill Cubit's team went 5-7 and was just minus-16.5 yards per game in Big Ten play. Lovie Smith has opted to tear down the program to build it up. Smith has gone 3-9 and 2-10 during his first two seasons, and last year, 16 true freshmen earned starts. The Illini are minus-128.3 and minus-136.3 in Big Ten play in Smith's first two years, and they definitely will be an improved team in 2018. But they have a lot of ground to make up. When those true freshmen are juniors, Illinois will have a better shot at a bowl game.