Tanking Tiers: Ranking MLB's rebuilders

Before the season, my projection system forecasted nine teams to win fewer than 75 games. With three weeks left in the 2018 season, eight of those teams are on track to win fewer than 70 games. The ninth team is the Atlanta Braves.

For the non-Braves teams on the list, this is the harsh reality of the rebuilding cycle. You might hold out hopes for an Atlanta-like breakout, but those wonderful stories are exceptional because those teams are, well, the exceptions. For the others, you knew you were probably going to lose big, and now that you have, you turn your attention to next year, hoping to be 2019's version of the Braves, or perhaps the Oakland Athletics.

Let's run through the clubs that are rebuilding at least to some degree, entered the season as a rebuilder, or will exit the season with the specter of a rebuild looming. Seventeen of baseball's 30 teams fall under one of those descriptions. I've divided the teams into groups, but the ranking runs through all the categories, from best to worst. It's just that some groups are higher on the rebuild ladder than others. The overarching question is this: How well has the team leveraged the 2018 season to reach contention at some point in the (hopefully) near future?

Graduated and loving it

These teams entered the season thought to be still in rebuilding mode but turned the corner during the year. Not only did they contend, they behaved like a contender. That is, they added talent to fill roster holes rather than move talent for prospects or to free up payroll. These are the teams the other non-contenders want to be when they grow up.

1. Atlanta Braves
2. Oakland Athletics
3. Philadelphia Phillies

Neither the Braves nor the A's loaded up last winter in a fashion that would have foretold their respective breakouts. Nevertheless, the Braves have been a wire-to-wire contender, and the A's caught fire in June and have rarely let up since. Both look like sure things for October baseball at this point.

The Phillies have also hung around for most of the season. Their story is different in that Philly invested heavily in the offseason free-agent market, adding Carlos Santana and Jake Arrieta. Then, during the season, the Phils have made numerous moves to fill roster holes with veteran acquisitions. Despite the aggressiveness, it now looks as if the Phillies peaked in May.

Still, once you've reached contention, by definition you have advanced beyond the rebuilding cycle, so that makes these three clubs the no-brainer picks for the top of these specialized rankings.

The Braves get the top spot because so much of their success has come from rookies, such as NL Rookie of the Year candidate Ronald Acuna Jr. Atlanta has under-25 regulars at both spots on the left side of the infield, and even if third baseman Johan Camargo ends up in a utility role, the Braves still have top prospect Austin Riley waiting in the wings to take over at third base. Meanwhile, the Braves have unleashed a flood of young arms on the National League, with more on the way. It's this combination of remaining minor league depth to go with the young stars we've already seen in Atlanta -- Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, Sean Newcomb, et al. -- that gives the Braves the top spot.

Matt Chapman has turned into an AL MVP contender, and Matt Olson has become a premier power threat. Ramon Laureano looks like a toolsy marvel, and reliever Lou Trivino should earn some Rookie of the Year down-ballot votes. However, Oakland's success has also been driven by veterans having big seasons ( Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis), along with the front office's ability to find value in unexpected places. Much of Oakland's pitching staff falls under this latter distinction.

Straddled the fence without hurting something important

These clubs never wrote off the 2018 season, but by jettisoning key veterans during the last offseason, they were also keeping one eye squarely on the future.

4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Pittsburgh Pirates

The Rays and Pirates were both lumped in with the non-competitors, and it never was fair to either. Neither team ever carried with it a forecast that dipped below mediocre. Still, while these teams are linked by their situation, their seasons have had very different shapes.

The Pirates started strong and faded but then jumped back into the race in July. They did all of this before waning crowds at PNC Park, a byproduct of fan resentment and rhetoric that often felt relentlessly negative. When Pittsburgh rose back into fringe contention, the Pirates responded by trading for veteran starter Chris Archer in a package that included three good prospects. It didn't work.

The Rays started the season at a glacial pace, and with the top-heavy American League falling very quickly into record levels of stratification, Tampa Bay gradually shed more veterans as the season went along. Denard Span, Adeiny Hechavarria, Brad Miller, Wilson Ramos, Archer, Nathan Eovaldi, Alex Colome and Jonny Venters all opened the season with the Rays and finished it elsewhere.

The miracle of the Rays is that with all the trades, many of which netted nice future pieces, rather than sinking from the middle to the bottom, they caught fire. If there was another month of regular-season baseball, Tampa Bay might overtake somebody in the playoff race, though all five likely AL postseason teams are performing well. As it is, the Rays might well finish with a better record than eventual AL Central champion Cleveland.

While doing this, the Rays have gotten leaner in payroll, added to what was already a solid minor league mix, which features two-way wunderkind Brendan McKay, top 2018 pick Matthew Liberatore and 17-year-old phenom Wander Franco, just to name a few. At the big league level, Blake Snell became a star; a deep staff of young power arms helped the Rays turn the innovative "opener" strategy into a league-best ERA. Under-25 hitters like Jake Bauers, Willy Adames and Brandon Lowe got big league experience, all while helping the Rays become one of baseball's hottest teams. Tampa Bay won't make the playoffs, but this year could hardly have gone better for the Rays.

The Pirates, on the other hand, have stayed competitive but have not escaped the shackles of mediocrity. A number of prospects have played with the big club, such as infielders Kevin Newman and Kevin Kramer. The Pirates have hopes of infusing their 2019 pitching staff with in-house products like Mitch Keller. Pittsburgh should remain competitive. However, star potential seems to be missing in the mix for the Pirates, and that's what separates them right now from the Rays.

The corner's in sight, but they haven't turned it

The sleeper candidate to be next year's version of this year's Braves or Athletics.

6. San Diego Padres

Eric Hosmer has had a disastrous first season in San Diego, and we don't know if the Padres will be as aggressive in the next free-agent market. Some of the Padres' young talent began to turn up at the big league level, enough that you could see a resurgent Hosmer (he's an every-other-year performer anyway) join those players and be swept along with a coming tide of prospects.

The Padres have been able to give long looks at young position players like Luis Urias, Austin Hedges, Hunter Renfroe,  Manuel Margot and Franmil Reyes. San Diego added former Indians prospect Francisco Mejia to the group during the season. In the minors, 19-year-old Fernando Tatis Jr. did nothing to tarnish his outlook. All of this could mesh into an exciting lineup as soon as next season.

San Diego has also gotten long looks at several young pitchers, like Joey Lucchesi, Jacob Nix and Eric Lauer, plus several young relievers. There has been a lot written about how much pitching depth San Diego has in its system. If the young position players advance, Hosmer and fellow disappointing vet Wil Myers bounce back, and the Padres are able to graduate some arms, it's not hard to envision a Braves- or Athletics-like breakout for San Diego.

Still, it has been so long since such a season like that has happened for the Padres, it's probably better to keep expectations modest. At any rate, this organization is pointed in the right direction.

Waiting is the hardest part

Teams that started this season in rebuild mode and will be right back there next season.

7. Chicago White Sox
8. Detroit Tigers
9. Miami Marlins
10. Kansas City Royals

The White Sox were the first of these teams to start down the rebuilding path, so they are further along in the talent acquisition phase. Adding talent is a big step, but just as big is developing that talent into big leaguers. It has been a mixed bag on that front for Chicago. Some of that has been due to injuries, but not all of it.

Chicago's happiest stories have been in the minors, where outfielder Eloy Jimenez was a monster at the plate and Dylan Cease was one of the best pitchers in any organization. Both were acquired from the Cubs in the Jose Quintana trade. Michael Kopech found some command and pushed his way to the majors.

At the big league level, the White Sox have used three young infielders all season in Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson and Yolmer Sanchez. None has been even league average at the plate, and only Sanchez has provided reliably plus defense. Moncada has flashed the combination of power, speed and patience that made him such an intriguing prospect, but it all has been undermined by his inability to make consistent contact. To a lesser degree, Anderson has been plagued by the same problem. On the staff, Lucas Giolito came on during the second half of the season after a worrying first half, Carlos Rodon has mostly taken a step forward, and Reynaldo Lopez looks like a workhorse.

The injuries -- Jake Burger, Kopech, Luis Robert, Micker Adolfo -- have been disappointing. But it doesn't change the fact that there remains plenty of high-ceiling talent on the way to Chicago, and some of it is already there.

The Tigers, Marlins and Royals all remain early in the rebuilding process, but they have continued to add talent. The Royals still have some expensive veteran deadweight ( Ian Kennedy, Alex Gordon), but they've had a big pitching success in Brad Keller and an exciting step forward from Adalberto Mondesi.

Still, it has been a tepid season for K.C. in the first year after their title window closed. Danny Duffy could have become a nice trade lure but had a disappointing season. Whit Merrifield has continued his leap from a non-prospect at age 27 to one of the best second basemen in the majors at 29. But he is 29.

The Marlins haven't created much of a stir, but it still has been a decent season for that franchise. Despite the disappointment of the fan base stemming from last winter's teardown and the departure of stars like Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna, there isn't a pall hovering over Miami quite to the degree you'd have thought. Sure, the fans are staying away in record numbers, but the Marlins have stayed competitive even while cycling through a number of young players on the roster.

Still, it's unclear just how many future solutions the Marlins have unearthed during the 2018 season. The same holds true for Detroit, where the best player has been Nicholas Castellanos, a solid hitter still looking for a defensive position where he doesn't hemorrhage runs.

Just getting started

11. Baltimore Orioles

Brand new to the rebuilding academy, Baltimore should have gotten this process started, at the very least, at the end of last season. Making things worse, it's entirely unclear who will be calling the shots going forward. Still, that the Orioles are now clearly rebuilding puts them ahead of these other groups. And they get the benefit of a mostly clean slate.

Stalled out

These are teams that are rebuilding, and have been rebuilding, but by now probably shouldn't be rebuilding.

12. Cincinnati Reds
13. Texas Rangers

The pitching on these teams remains frightful. The Reds have been spectacularly bad at turning their pitching prospects into major league producers, and this season hasn't been a whole lot better. Anthony DeSclafani, Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle and Sal Romano at least look as if they have a chance to stick. But Cincinnati still needs a couple of staff anchors, even if Matt Harvey sticks around and continues to trend upward.

The Reds have been indecisive with their moves this season. As a free-agent-to-be, Harvey was found money for Cincinnati and probably should have been flipped. On the other hand, maybe the offers for him were simply that bad. If he decides to stick around and the price tag isn't too ridiculous, then maybe the call to keep Harvey will still pay off.

However, that's less likely of closer Raisel Iglesias, who surely attracted interest around the deadline. He was dominant last year, but this year his underlying metrics are way down. Plus, he's already 28. The decision to keep him, Harvey and second baseman Scooter Gennett all suggest the Reds feel as if they are close. But until we start seeing above-average seasons from their internally developed starting pitchers, this is an organization that is running in place.

The Rangers are an enigma. They have a number of under-26 regulars or near-regulars, like Rougned Odor, Ronald Guzman, Jurickson Profar, Delino DeShields and Nomar Mazara. They also have some long-in-the-tooth regulars like Adrian Beltre, Robinson Chirinos and Shin-Soo Choo.

To go with that odd mix of pre- and post-prime positional talent, the Rangers have a motley crew of second-division pitchers, the best of which has been lefty Mike Minor. If there were waves of arms on the way, that would be fine. Placeholders would make sense. But the water looks calm along the shores of Ranger Beach. Texas is clearly in a rebuilding phase, but I'm not sure where the foundation is, or even where it's supposed to be.

Destination unknown

Teams that thought it would be a good idea to try to contend, but it turned out that it wasn't.

14. Los Angeles Angels
15. Minnesota Twins
16. New York Mets
17.  San Francisco Giants

The Angels are the best of this directionless group because at the very least they have Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani (at least as a hitter) and Andrelton Simmons. And the improved minor league system seems poised to start supplying some solutions. What concerns me is that the Angels can't really take time to let its system gestate. Entering the last two years of Trout's contract, this team needs to win. But it just doesn't work out for the Angels when they try to throw money at their problems.

It's not fair to call the Twins directionless. They did reach the AL wild-card game last season. But even though they invested in veterans over the winter, they didn't exactly mortgage Target Field to do it. The concerns about Minnesota are more about their young players than anything regarding their winter approach. The problematic season of Byron Buxton is the headliner, but injury-riddled Miguel Sano has been barely replacement level just one year after he looked like a budding MVP candidate.

As for the Mets, what can you really say? When we wrote once again that a healthy Mets rotation could lead them into contention, it was true. It might still be true for 2019, especially after a resurgent 2018 season from Zack Wheeler. But this is an organization poised for a reset -- if anybody would be willing to give the go-ahead. As with the Orioles, right now we don't even know who is going to be setting the tone for New York going forward.

Is it even possible that the Giants double-down on their uninspired approach to last offseason? If so, maybe it would be for the best. As Baltimore finally discovered, there is a certain clarity that comes with hitting rock bottom.