Week 17 NFL Playoff Odds

ByDANNY TUCCITTO
December 24, 2013, 1:39 PM

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With all of these things in mind, this week's column focuses on the more complicated scenarios and provides more detail than before.

Here are the Week 17 playoff odds:

AFC playoff projections

(1) Denver Broncos

(2) New England Patriots

Current record: 11-4 | Weighted DVOA: 23.7 percent
Projected wins: 11.8
Total playoff odds: 100.0 percent | Weekly Change: +0.7 percent

(3) Cincinnati Bengals

Current record: 10-5 | Weighted DVOA: 18.6 percent
Projected wins: 10.7
Total playoff odds: 100.0 percent | Weekly Change: +6.2 percent

(4) Indianapolis Colts

Current record: 10-5 | Weighted DVOA: -2.8 percent
Projected wins: 10.7
Total playoff odds: 100.0 percent | Weekly Change: +0.0 percent

We wouldn't say that the top four seeds in the AFC are "up for grabs," but only one of the current favorites has a probability of more than 70 percent (Denver at 76 percent) to stay at its current seed. To wit, New England has a non-zero chance of finishing anywhere from No. 1 to No. 4, while both Cincinnati and Indianapolis can finish anywhere from No. 2 to No. 4. Therefore, rather than detailing each team's chances of a specific seed, it's probably best to just lay out the scenarios as a group, and proceed with the discussion from there.

With four Week 17 games relevant to the situation, there are 16 possible combinations of results (excluding ties). In the table below, we've listed each combination, the probability of that combination occurring as per our simulations (rounded to the nearest whole percent) and the seeds which would result.

With all four teams being about 70 percent favorites this weekend, the most likely scenario is that they all win, hence how we have the seeds projected right now. Still, there are four other scenarios in which the seeds remain the same (three, nine, 15 and 16). Taken together then, there's a 44 percent chance that Week 17 changes nothing about the top four seeds in the AFC.

After the "everyone wins" scenario, you have a group that involves one of the four teams losing (scenarios five through nine), the most likely of which is Denver, which makes sense given that the Broncos are the only one of the four teams on the road. If that happens, then the Patriots leapfrog the Broncos for the No. 1 seed. For our money, though, the most interesting "one team loses" scenario -- although it's the least likely of the group -- is the one in which New England suffers the only upset (scenario five). In that case, the Patriots drop all the way to the No. 4 seed, and would have to host a wild-card game against the Chiefs, who currently rank ninth in weighted DVOA. Kansas City has come back to the pack a bit over the past couple of months, but it remains the case that the Chiefs are significantly better than our current favorite for the No. 6 seed -- 18.3 percentage points, to be exact.

Next up is the group of scenarios that involve two of the four teams losing (scenarios six through 11), with the most likely upsets being by Oakland and Jacksonville. Altogether, there's a 24 percent chance of a scenario in this group occurring, and (again) the least likely is the most interesting. If the Bills and Ravens pull upsets rather than the Raiders and Jaguars, then Indianapolis vaults ahead of both New England and Cincinnati for a first-round bye. Why is that interesting? Well, the Colts are one of only three teams with a negative weighted DVOA that we currently project to make the playoffs; and they would be the No. 2 seed.

Scenarios 12 to 15 are the set of results in which three teams lose, and those combine for a mere 5 percent chance of happening according to our simulations. In those, the implications are straightforward: The lone winner benefits the most unless it's Denver, in which case all seeds remain the same as they are right now.

(5) Kansas City Chiefs

Current record: 11-4 | Weighted DVOA: 18.3 percent
Projected wins: 11.5
Total playoff odds: 100.0 percent | Weekly Change: +0.0 percent

The Chiefs are locked into their spot, so there's nothing to discuss about what our simulations portend for their specific seed.

(6) Miami Dolphins

Current record: 8-7 | Weighted DVOA: 0.0 percent
Projected wins: 8.7
Total playoff odds: 58.7 percent | Weekly Change: -3.3 percent

In the hunt

Baltimore Ravens | 8-7 | Total playoff odds: 18.9 percent
San Diego Chargers | 8-7 | Total playoff odds: 13.3 percent
Pittsburgh Steelers | 7-8 | Total playoff odds: 9.1 percent

We've got four teams vying for the final AFC playoff spot, so let's do the same exercise we did earlier.

You might notice a couple of details in the table immediately. First, Pittsburgh's 9 percent chance of making the playoffs comes entirely from a single scenario: the one in which the Steelers win and everyone else loses.

Second, there's a clear dichotomy between the scenarios in which Miami makes the playoffs and those in which Baltimore makes the playoffs. Namely, the Dolphins rule the high-probability top half of the table, while the Ravens rule the low-probability bottom half. Regarding Miami, that's because only the just-mentioned-for-their-dire-circumstances Steelers are a larger Week 17 favorite than the Dolphins (67 percent) among this group. On the flip side, the Ravens are the biggest underdog to win their own game (26 percent), but are also the biggest beneficiary if Miami loses. Perhaps the best illustration of this, though, is contrasting scenarios five and 12. If all four teams win, Miami qualifies; if all four teams lose, Baltimore qualifies. And the difference separating those two results is only 6 percent in terms of likelihood.