Satellite Shootdown Suprised Planners
Satellite shootdown shows experts don't know a lot about what happens in space.
March 25, 2008 — -- The recent missile takedown of an ailing U.S. satellite showed that there's still a lot the experts don't know about what happens in space.
"We didn't predict an explosion," says Rear Adm. Brad Hicks, U.S. Navy manager of the Aegis air and space defense program. "But the hydrazine tank did burn for tens of seconds. [The impact] also created smaller pieces than we had predicted. What's still up there [is so small that] it is not showing up in the debris field."
But now that the shootdown has been done once, the capability – which took six weeks to put together – possibly could be duplicated even faster. While U.S. officials say it was a one-time event, they also say they learned a lot that might not have to be repeated for a second anti-satellite (ASAT) mission.
"I wouldn't tell you that [we can't intercept a new space target in less than six weeks]," Hicks says. How quickly an ASAT capability can be reconstituted "depends on the object, how we characterize the orbit and what we understand about the object [and whether we're] killing the satellite or killing something inside the satellite," he says.
There were unexpected obstacles. "[The dead satellite] was not stable," Hicks says. "It was rolling and tumbling and [its gyration] wasn't always the same from one orbit to another, which added to the technical challenge. We tried for six weeks to see what was predictable about what it was doing each orbit, and we just couldn't do it."
As a result, gathering radar and infrared information on the satellite was crucial and the results are considered a huge incentive to rapidly integrate the nation's sensors that are capable of characterizing objects in space.
"We needed everything to come together to give us the knowledge we needed. It was a totally dead satellite [so there was no maneuvering]," Hicks says. "There were early warning radars. There also were sensors in space. The problem is to not integrate too much. It can rapidly become unaffordable. We're looking at the after action reports and STRATCOM is to pull together [recommendations on future radar integration]."
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