Your Chances of Getting Bumped (and Dating Supermodels)

Dec. 2, 2009 — -- Yes, I will get to the part about the supermodels shortly, but first, let's talk flying -- and specifically, your odds of getting bumped from a plane.

In a word, the chances of this happening are "slim." But it varies from airline to airline, and thanks to a wonderful Web site called "Book of Odds" I can tell you which carriers are the best and worst when it comes to bumping, based on 2008 data.

You know what bumping is: that ugly event that occasionally occurs when your airline oversells its seats to avoid the no-shows. Usually, gate agents start out asking for volunteers who get a sweetener such as a $100 voucher (or more) for future travel; if that doesn't work, the bumping becomes "involuntary." In other words, you're the poor sap who gets kicked off the flight.

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It is rare, though -- the chances it'll happen to you involuntarily are about 1 in 10,040 (though the chances of getting bumped when you combine voluntarily and involuntarily drop to 1 in 872). Still, it pays to know your rights: involuntary bumpees now get paid as much as $800 for the inconvenience.

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But it is an inconvenience, so you might want to think twice when making reservations for flights operated by Comair, Pinnacle and Atlantic Southeast -- those airlines offer you the best chance of being involuntarily bumped, according to the Book of Odds. The airlines least likely to bump against your will? JetBlue, Hawaiian and AirTran. Again, this is based on the 2008 data. Perhaps some have improved and some have slacked off since then.