New York No. 2 Most Vulnerable to Hurricanes

June 1, 2006 — -- A large hurricane, on the scale of Katrina, could strike the Northeast, namely New York, this summer.

On June 1, opening day for the hurricane season, the focus remains on the preparedness of the areas typically hard hit by hurricanes, like Florida, New Orleans and Texas, but fail to examine how prepared or ill prepared other parts of the nation are.

The Big Apple could be just as vulnerable to a hurricane as the Big Easy. Historically, hurricanes hit New York City, Long Island and the New England coast about once every decade. Some meteorologists are concerned that the Northeast wouldn't just get a storm, but would get a large-scale hurricane that could be as damaging and costly as Katrina.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, this hurricane season is going to be particularly active. The administration predicts eight to 10 hurricanes looming over us for the 2006 North Atlantic hurricane season, with up to a half-dozen of those hurricanes becoming large-scale Category 3 or higher.

"New York is second to New Orleans in terms of being the greatest at risk for storm surge and flooding from a major hurricane," said Karen Clark, president and chief executive of AIR Worldwide, an insurance consulting firm based in Boston.

"This is because of both New Orleans' and New York's orientation to the coastline." Clark said. She explained that New Orleans might have a problem with a levee system but that when a hurricane hits, New York, Long Island and New Jersey had a tendency to build up large amounts of water because of the narrowing of multiple inlets and bays.

Many meteorologists say the Northeast's time is approaching for a major hurricane because the Atlantic Ocean cycles through various levels of activity and right now those levels are peaking.

Bernie Rayno, senior meteorologist for AccuWeather, says the Northeast is not prepared for a hurricane with the magnitude of Katrina or even one with a lesser magnitude.

Rayno says the Northeast may, in fact, be even worse off to handle a large hurricane. "Ivan, the hurricane that struck [the Gulf Coast] the year before Katrina, believe it or not, prepared that area. But in the Northeast, there hasn't been a hurricane for some time, so people don't have a clear concept of what will happen."