DC's cherry blossom season announced: Will peak bloom come early?

Cherry blossom season is almost here in the nation's capital and now residents and tourists alike can mark their calendars for peak bloom.

On Thursday, the National Park Service and organizers of the National Cherry Blossom Festival said March 23-26 are the projected peak bloom dates for the District of Columbia's Tidal Basin cherry blossoms.

There are approximately 3,800 Japanese Yoshino cherry trees around the Tidal Basin and National Mall, according to NPS, and peak bloom is determined when 70% of the blossoms are open.

D.C. will celebrate the annual National Cherry Blossom Festival from March 20 to April 14.

The Japanese cherry blossom season in D.C. dates back to 1912 when the mayor of Tokyo at the time, Mr. Yukio Ozaki, gave 3,000 trees to the capital as a "symbol of friendship," according to Fumito Mikaye, minister of public affairs for the Japanese Embassy.

"Since then, the cherry blossom trees have been treasured and beloved here in D.C. and have become an integral part of the landscape and culture," Mikaye said.

This year's cherry blossom trees have been particularly difficult to read, said Jeff Reinbold, National Park Service superintendent of National Mall and Memorial Parks.

"Determining the dates for peak bloom is one of the great puzzles in the nation's capital," Reinbold said, adding, "The trees never reached dormancy, which is what we use to calculate when the blooms will emerge."

The predicted bloom dates are based on long-term forecasts, historical records and the appearance of trees, according to Reinbold.

Peak bloom is occurring earlier each year, with the historical average date being April 4, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.

The federal government’s Fifth National Climate Assessment explains that peak bloom is affected by seasonal shifts, including milder, shorter winter seasons and spring warmth beginning earlier.

The D.C. area is experiencing one of the warmest Februarys and winters on record; the 2024 season is currently the fifth warmest winter on record and the seventh warmest February on record, according to the National Weather Service (NWS), which forecasts above-average warmth through much of March.

The EPA reports that peak bloom dates have shifted earlier by about seven days since 1921. Over the last 20 years, peak bloom dates have occurred before the April 4 average 15 times.