New Orleans Hurricane Could Spell Disaster

Aug. 28, 2005 — -- It's not wind, but water that threatens New Orleans -- as the massive Hurricane Katrina circles in the Gulf of Mexico, threatening to hit the city.

New Orleans Mayor C. Ray Nagin ordered a mandatory evacuation of the city Sunday morning, saying Katrina would be "an unprecedented event in the history of the city of New Orleans, and we want everybody to get out."

Jefferson Parish Sheriff Harry Lee was more blunt.

"You have an obligation to yourself and your family to haul ass and get out of here," he said, "and I'm telling you to get out now."

A National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration bulletin issued at 2 p.m. ET described Katrina as "potentially catastrophic." President Bush has declared states of emergency for Louisiana and Mississippi. And Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Blanco said people should not take those declarations lightly.

"This hurricane is lining up to potentially be the hurricane that would achieve our worst nightmares," Blanco told ABC News on "Good Morning America Weekend Edition."

"If we have 15 to 20 feet of water in the city of New Orleans, there aren't many safe places available," she added. "Power will be down. It will be a very difficult situation."

New Orleans sits in a bowl, most of it six feet below sea level, and is surrounded by water. Lake Ponchartrain lies to the north. On the south is the Mississippi River, which meanders through the city.

"I think New Orleans is completely different as a target for a hurricane than any other place in the nation," said Ret. Col. Terry Ebbert, director of homeland security for New Orleans.

The city is protected from both Lake Ponchartrain and the river by a series of levees, improved and heightened over the last 40 years.

But officials admit that the levee system, built to withstand a category 3 hurricane, could be easily breached by a stronger storm.

"If we had a direct hit of a category 4 or 5, or maybe even a slow moving cat 3, we would be totally inundated with water," said Geneve Grille, a levee engineer. "You couldn't pump it all out."

As Hurricane Katrina circled in the Gulf of Mexico Sunday morning, it was upgraded to a category 5 storm, the strongest category on the scale, with 175 mph sustained winds.

"With a storm of this size," said Victor Howell Sr., a spokesman for the American Red Cross in Louisiana, "we're not looking at your typical, 'Oh, a storm's coming through. It's gonna be here on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. We'll clean up. On Thursday, we're back to work.' I'm afraid this is going to have long-term implications."

If such a strong storm strikes New Orleans, steady rain and surging water from the lake and river could submerge the city.