The 2024 election could have a big impact on education policy

The economy, immigration and abortion are at the forefront of the 2024 presidential election, but there's one issue that used to be important to Americans that has fallen off the radar: education. But it's still been a part of the campaign … if you know where to look.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the Democratic vice presidential nominee, has made his experience as a high school teacher a central part of his pitch, leading to a surge in donations from teachers to Vice President Kamala Harris's campaign. On the other side, former President Donald Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance, have advocated for school choice, spoken out against critical race theory in school curriculums and even promised to shut down the Department of Education.

Compared to other issues (like the economy and immigration), education ranks lower as a priority for Americans. According to the October New York Times/Siena College and YouGov/The Economist polls, less than 3 percent of adults said it was their most important issue. But that doesn't mean voters don't consider it important. In the October YouGov/The Economist poll, 88 percent of adults still said education was an important issue, while just 12 percent said it wasn't.

Polls also show that Americans are growing less satisfied with education in the U.S. According to an August Gallup poll, 70 percent of parents were satisfied with their oldest kid's quality of education, a 10-percentage-point decrease from 2022. There's a real party divide in satisfaction with K-12 education, too, as 88 percent of Democratic parents were satisfied with their oldest kid's education, while only 62 percent of Republicans were satisfied.

Within education, a hot-button issue is school choice. In 2024 alone, Georgia and Louisiana have created voucher and educational scholarship account programs, while South Carolina's Supreme Court ruled its ESA program unconstitutional. ESAs and school vouchers allow public funding to go toward private education, which can include alternative forms of education and homeschooling.

As these programs are implemented across the country, national polls show that public opinion of them is mixed. According to a September poll from Morning Consult/EdChoice, 60 percent of adults supported school vouchers and 65 percent of adults supported ESA programs (although it's worth noting that EdChoice is an advocacy organization that supports voucher programs). The groups that were most supportive of vouchers were political conservatives (72 percent), Republicans (70 percent) and people who earn more than $100,000 per year (68 percent). The least supportive groups included West Coast residents (59 percent), women (59 percent) and non-Hispanic white people (58 percent).

By contrast, the groups that are most supportive of ESAs were those who make more than $100,000 per year (78 percent), liberals/progressives (74 percent) and those with an advanced degree (74 percent). The least supportive groups included Black people (64 percent), women (64 percent) and political moderates (62 percent). It's notable that support for these two school choice programs looks so different, considering that ESA programs are arguably a rebranded version of vouchers.

In November, three states will vote on ballot measures related to school choice. In Nebraska, Referendum 435 will ask voters if they want to uphold or repeal Bill 1402, which sets aside $10 million in public money to fully or partially pay for students to attend non-public schools. A Survey USA poll conducted in late August showed that 35 percent of registered voters wanted to repeal the bill, while 26 percent wanted to keep it; 39 percent remained undecided. Among just parents who took the Survey USA poll, 40 percent supported repeal, 23 percent opposed it and 37 percent were undecided. Supporters of repeal believe Bill 1402 takes funding away from public schools; opponents of repeal say it would prevent parents and students from choosing the school that best fits their needs.

In Colorado, Amendment 80 aims to enshrine a "right to school choice" in the state constitution. The amendment defines school choice as "neighborhood, charter, and private schools; home schooling; open enrollment options; and future innovations in education." Advance Colorado petitioned the measure and has a history of advocating for school choice. Opponents believe it is too vague and could lead to a voucher system. They also argue that Colorado already has school choice through a 1994 law that allows students to enroll in schools outside their school zones.

In Kentucky, Amendment 2 asks voters whether public money should be allowed to go toward private schools. Similar to Colorado's amendment, this ballot measure wouldn't automatically start a voucher system, but it could lay the foundation for one. Kentucky is one of the few states where charter schools are legal but not funded by the state (Amendment 2 could change this). Proponents of the amendment believe that the funding would help low- and middle-income families attend other schools.

While there are no public polls of the ballot measures in Colorado and Kentucky, OpenSecrets has tracked fundraising by the committees that support and oppose them. In Colorado, Amendment 80's opponents — which include organizations like the Colorado Education Association that have actively spoken out against public funds going toward private education — raised $751,247, while supporters have not received a single contribution greater than $5,000.

By contrast, in Kentucky, opponents of the "right to school choice" amendment raised far less than supporters, $1,533,445 to $5,474. Overall, across the three elections, opponents of school choice have outraised supporters.

Finally, while Florida does not have a ballot measure dealing with a school choice program, it does have another major education-related ballot measure: Amendment 1, which would require candidates for state school board to disclose their political party. Currently, nine states have partisan school board races. Opponents of the amendment believe it would bring politics into schools through partisan campaign contributions — although others argue that schools have been a political battleground for many years already. An average of the polls on Amendment 1 show that Floridians are divided on the issue, with 35 percent in favor of partisan school board elections, 38 percent in opposition and 27 percent undecided.

These are just four of the 11 education-related ballot measures on state ballots in 2024. That's the most since 2018.

While the number of education-related ballot measures has decreased overall in the last 20 years, they are having a bit of a moment here in 2024. Despite being a less salient issue than in years past, education is still a big part of our politics.