Can endorsements change the course of the GOP primary?

Just a few weeks before the start of voting in the GOP presidential primary, former President Donald Trump continues to dominate the race nationally. But in Iowa and New Hampshire — the first two states to vote — other candidates have been getting some high-profile endorsements and favorable press. Is it enough, though, to vault either Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley into contention?

So far, it's not looking promising.

"Lightning has been known to strike in weird places and weird times, so anything can happen. I would never take that off the table," former RNC Chairman Michael Steele said. "But I think the essence of your question remains a very important one: Has anything changed? Will endorsements change anything? And the answer is no."

Trump leads the GOP primary in terms of overall endorsements and public polling. But there's a primary within the primary: the race to be the alternative candidate to Trump, should Republicans ever want or need one. For candidates competing in that shadow primary, it's essential to place second in at least one of the first two nominating contests. Based on the polls, DeSantis's best shot to do that is in Iowa, while Haley's is in New Hampshire. That matches where they're spending their time and money — and where they're receiving their big endorsements. But those endorsements will likely reinforce the status quo: a divided field that will probably just lead to a Trump nomination.

For DeSantis, a strong showing in Iowa could pave the way for a comeback in races later on the calendar. He's visited all 99 Iowa counties — dubbed the "Full Grassley" after Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley's campaign strategy of crisscrossing the state. And according to data from AdImpact, which tracks political advertising, DeSantis supporters had spent $25.3 million on advertising in Iowa as of Dec. 11 — more than any other candidate in the state. (That said, the biggest-spending outside group in Iowa has been SFA Fund, the super PAC backing Haley, with $18 million in ad spending.) The cherry on top for DeSantis's Iowa campaign came last month in the form of two major endorsements: one from Gov. Kim Reynolds, the other from evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats.

"What happens in New Hampshire will be significantly impacted by the outcome in Iowa, where the true Trump alternative will emerge," Andrew Romeo, the DeSantis campaign's communications director, said in a statement to 538. "And when Ron DeSantis comes out in that position, he will be joined by over 60 New Hampshire state legislators who stand ready to take the fight to the establishment and their candidates of yesteryear to return power to grassroots conservatives."

While DeSantis focuses his efforts on Iowa, Haley is going all in on New Hampshire, betting that an early victory in the first state to hold a traditional primary (rather than caucuses) will cement her status as the consensus alternative to Trump. Just as DeSantis has the endorsement of the governor of Iowa, Haley recently won the backing of New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu. Haley also has the endorsement of the deep-pocketed conservative group Americans for Prosperity, which has already dedicated $4 million to help her, including in New Hampshire. According to AdImpact, Haley and her supporters had spent $18.1 million on ads in New Hampshire as of Dec. 12 — more than every other candidate combined. The super PAC supporting Trump is airing its first negative ad against Haley this week — and it happens to be reserved in the Boston media market, which includes New Hampshire. In response to the news, Haley tweeted, "Someone's getting nervous."

"Polls indicate Donald Trump will likely win the Iowa Caucus," Sununu wrote in an op-ed in the New Hampshire Union-Leader last week. "Once that happens, the nation will turn its eyes towards New Hampshire. We pride ourselves on our independent streak, and there is no better way to show it than by catapulting Nikki Haley to a strong showing here, providing her with the opportunity to take on Donald Trump one-on-one in the months ahead." Olivia Perez-Cubas, spokesperson for Haley's campaign, told 538 that the GOP primary is already "a two-person race between Nikki and Donald Trump."

Reynolds's endorsement was a major event in Iowa politics, marking the first time an Iowa governor has endorsed before the caucuses since 1996. But her endorsement failed to change the trajectory of the race: On Nov. 5, the day before Reynolds endorsed, Trump led DeSantis 46 percent to 17 percent in 538's average of Iowa polls. One month later, Trump's lead was virtually unchanged: 45 percent to 18 percent. Sununu's impact in New Hampshire remains to be seen, but it would have to be much bigger than Reynolds's to erase Trump's current 44-percent-to-19-percent lead over Haley in 538's New Hampshire polling average. Haley's best-case scenario might be that whatever momentum she can get in New Hampshire pushes her to the lead in South Carolina — her home state.

The latest Selzer & Company poll of Iowa confirmed that DeSantis's new endorsers aren't changing many voters' minds. When asked whether Reynolds's endorsement made them more or less likely to support DeSantis, 54 percent of likely Iowa caucusgoers said that it "does not matter"; 73 percent said so about Vander Plaats's endorsement.

But that doesn't mean endorsements are worthless. They can still be valuable because of their effect among party operatives and activists — "people who are going to do the work of mobilization and caucus work," said Hans Noel, author of "Political Ideologies and Political Parties in America." GOP operative Matt Gorman, who most recently worked on South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott's presidential campaign, expressed a similar sentiment. "Endorsements like Reynolds's and Sununu's give out a nice shot of earned media, and it's one of the rare ways aside from the debates that you can break through in coverage," Gorman said. "But also, tactically, it gives you another surrogate and use of the organization, which is very, very helpful."

In addition to expanding a campaign's access to resources, endorsements bring the most influential people in the party onto the same page. "Historically, it's mattered the most when all of these folks coalesce behind the same candidate, or most of them do," Noel explained. But the major Republican leaders who could have changed the trajectory of the 2024 primary have stayed on the sidelines. According to 538's endorsement tracker, the most influential members of the Republican Party have either withheld their endorsements or endorsed Trump. Of the 25 Republican governors in the country not currently running for president, just 10 have endorsed an active presidential candidate — and seven of those have endorsed Trump. The three governors who have endorsed non-Trump candidates are split between DeSantis (who has endorsements from Reynolds and Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt) and Haley (who has Sununu's endorsement).

It's the same story for Republicans in Congress. Of the 96 House Republicans who have endorsed active candidates in the 2024 race, 90 are backing Trump. DeSantis has five House endorsements, and Haley has just one — the same number as former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who decided not to run.

Finally, in the Senate, 18 Republicans have endorsed Trump, and none has endorsed DeSantis or Haley. "You can imagine a story where a governor of a state or high-profile senator could bring along a lot of other people … but that's not happening," Noel said.

Further down the ballot, there are more politicians willing to enter the fray. The DeSantis campaign points to a long list of endorsements from local politicians, including the aforementioned 60 New Hampshire state legislators. (While that sounds impressive, it's important to remember that New Hampshire has 424 seats in its state legislature, more than any other state in the country.) And while politicos don't expect any more endorsements from big-name Republicans in Iowa or New Hampshire, they are waiting to see whether Rep. Randy Feenstra, who represents the most conservative district in Iowa, weighs in ahead of the caucuses, which could make a difference in a tight contest.

As party chairman, Steele said there were races where he would have to work with party leaders and candidates themselves to winnow down a crowded primary field. But Steele, who admires former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's anti-Trump messaging on the trail, doesn't think Republican politicians will risk their political futures by snubbing the former president.

"If folks galvanized around the Christie message — again, not even having to endorse Chris Christie, but just get behind that messaging around Trump — that could have maybe made a difference six months ago," Steele said. "But you're a month out from Iowa. … There's not a sleeper cell inside the GOP primary base that is going to suddenly come out and shock the world."