Can Harris win back Biden's Israel-Gaza critics?

UPDATE (Sept. 20, 10:55 a.m. Eastern): In a press conference and statement on Sept. 19, organizers from the Uncommitted National Movement, the pro-Palestinian group that organized a sizeable protest vote against President Joe Biden in some of this year's Democratic primaries, announced that the group will not endorse Vice President Kamala Harris or organize on behalf of her campaign, saying Harris did not give a satisfactory response to their requests for a meeting. But their latest move also seemed to signal that it will step back from attacking Harris's campaign ahead of the general election.

The relationship between Harris's campaign and Uncommitted and its allies had remained uneasy after the group staged a brief protest and longer sit-in at last month's Democratic National Convention, but group members Thursday said they will refocus their efforts on protesting current U.S. policy toward Gaza under Biden, and organizing against a second Trump presidency. "[Former President Donald Trump's] agenda includes plans to accelerate the killing in Gaza while intensifying the suppression of anti-war organizing," said Abbas Alawieh, a cofounder of the movement. "Our movement is not recommending a third-party vote in the presidential election, especially as third-party votes in key swing states could help inadvertently deliver a Trump presidency."

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ORIGINAL ARTICLE (August 16, 2024, 1:49 p.m. Eastern): Last week, student protesters in Detroit interrupted Vice President Kamala Harris's campaign speech at an airport hangar, chanting, "Kamala, Kamala, you can't hide; we won't vote for genocide." What made news was her move to cut them off after initially entertaining the interruption. "If you want Donald Trump to win, then say that," she said. "Otherwise, I'm speaking," she told the crowd. It roared in response.

Similar protests interrupted Harris's rallies throughout the weekend, highlighting a big question looming over the campaign: Where does Harris stand on the Israel-Hamas war, and will she satisfy voters who are upset about the crisis in Gaza?

In recent years, a growing share of Americans, especially younger and Arab American voters, have expressed support for the Palestinian cause, and those voters have been displeased with President Joe Biden's support for Israel and continued efforts to provide the country with military aid, which may top more than $12 billion this fiscal year.

Some of them were even prepared to punish Biden for it at the ballot box. Back when he was still running for reelection, around 17 percent of Democratic primary voters voted for "uncommitted" or minor candidates instead of Biden, more than double the typical protest vote counted in previous uncompetitive presidential primary elections. If those voters had also refused to vote for him in the general election, they could conceivably have made a difference in a state like Michigan, which has been close in the last two presidential elections and has the largest Arab American population in the country.

But with Harris replacing Biden on the Democratic ticket, it's unclear how much of a threat this protest vote still is to Democratic chances. On one hand, Harris has an opportunity to distance herself from Biden on the issue since her positions on the Israel-Hamas war remain largely undefined. On the other, former President Donald Trump benefits from being out of office during the rise of these wars, which means many voters may be unfamiliar with his own stances on the issue — which pro-Palestinian activists worry would be strongly pro-Israel.

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Ten years ago this summer, fighting broke out between Israel and Gaza, taking the lives of an estimated 2,200 Palestinian civilians, just as the Black Lives Matter movement was emerging in the U.S. after the killing of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri. But the coincidence of timing wasn't the only thing that protesters in both conflicts found they had in common, and the movements became aligned to some degree. A generation of progressive activists came to see these causes as entwined, despite their different contexts.

That helped spur a rise in sympathy for Palestinians. Every year since 2000, Gallup has asked American adults, "In the Middle East situation, are your sympathies more with the Israelis or more with the Palestinians?" Through 2019, an average of 59 percent answered the Israelis, 17 percent said the Palestinians and 24 percent said both. In the past five years, though, the average percentage who said the Israelis was down to 56 percent and the share who said both was down to 18 percent, while those who answered Palestinians rose to 26 percent. Democrats and people under 35 were especially likely to answer Palestinians, at 43 percent and 45 percent respectively in Gallup's most recent poll.

Biden's initial response to the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas terrorist attacks against Israel, stating that his "support for Israel's security is rock solid and unwavering," fell into that new context. According to Gallup, in November 2023, half of Americans approved of the military action Israel had taken in Gaza, with 45 percent disapproving. But disapproval rose to 55 percent in March as the Gazan civilian death toll, which is now at an estimated 40,000 people or more according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, kept climbing. By June, disapproval had eased back down to 48 percent, but only 42 percent (including just 23 percent of Democrats) approved.

As the months passed, Israel's campaign pressed far into Gaza, and the humanitarian crisis expanded to include famine. Some Democratic leaders began calling for a humanitarian ceasefire. In April, World Central Kitchen food aid volunteers were killed in an Israeli airstrike, and in May, Israeli forces pressed into Rafah, in southern Gaza, which had been a safe harbor for refugees.

All of that helped widen and deepen disapproval for Israel's actions, and the Biden administration began trying to negotiate the terms of a ceasefire. In May, Biden held up a shipment of 3,500 bombs, and an international panel of experts recommended arrest warrants be issued for leaders of Hamas and Israel for war crimes and crimes against humanity. But a deal has proven elusive. The U.S., Egypt and Qatar have pushed for peace talks in the last few weeks, but Hamas has said it won't join them.

For her part, Harris hasn't outlined a detailed policy plan on the issue since entering the presidential race on July 21. However, she has called for a ceasefire, though her national security advisor has said she does not support an arms embargo on Israel. At a rally in Arizona, she called for respect for the protesters and said she and Biden were working for a ceasefire deal and a return of the hostages still held by Hamas. Last month, she met privately with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and did not attend his address to Congress because of a scheduling conflict. (She was previously scheduled to appear in Indianapolis that day.)

Many voters, however, aren't satisfied with the Biden administration's actions thus far. In a YouGov/The Economist poll from July 21-23, a plurality (38 percent) of Americans favored decreasing military aid to Israel, while 21 percent wanted to maintain the same amount and 18 percent wanted to increase it.

With that in mind, those "uncommitted" voters from the primary, and others who want the U.S. to scale down its aid to Israel, could split from the Democratic coalition if they're unhappy with Harris's response. Members of the Uncommitted National Movement met with Harris briefly outside her rally in Detroit and said as much to her, said Waleed Shahid, a Democratic strategist and one of the founders of the movement. "'Michigan voters want to vote for you, but we need to see some change, some policy change, or some commitment to policy change from you about the bombs being sent to Netanyahu,'" Shahid said they told her.

Shahid thinks Trump would be even worse for their cause. During his first administration, Trump bragged that he "fought for Israel like no president ever before" by moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem and recognizing it as the country's capital, a provocative move. And while he's been mum on plans for his second term, the Republican Party outlined support for Israel in its platform at the Republican National Convention.

Yet Trump hasn't been the focus of protests. In fact, Shahid said his group formed in an effort to encourage Democrats to address their concerns so that voters wouldn't sit the election out or vote for Trump. They want their voters back into the Democratic fold.

"We are deeply afraid of Trump and Vance winning," Shahid said. "Our understanding of Donald Trump's plan for Palestinians is to accelerate violence against Palestinians in Gaza and in the West Bank."

Voters aren't as aware of Trump's positions, though, because Trump isn't currently in the White House, Shahid said. "I am surprised by how little people know about Trump's positions on some of this stuff or Trump's history on some of this stuff."

Republicans in general also are much more likely to support Israel. Eighty percent of Republican identifiers told Gallup their sympathies lay with Israelis more than with Palestinians, and in March, 64 percent of Republicans said they approved of Israel's military actions, down slightly from 71 percent in November.

But groups like Shahid's aren't the only ones Democrats are hearing from. There's also pressure within the party to quiet criticism of Israel and double down on support for the country. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee got involved in several Democratic primaries this cycle in an effort to defeat candidates critical of Israel, like Reps. Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush.

"In the context of the war, support for Israel — militarily, politically, diplomatically — [is] important," said Mark Mellman, a political strategist and president of Democratic Majority for Israel. "It's important to understand the goal that the administration has made clear: that while Israel, while the way Israel fights this war, is important, it's also important to defeat Hamas and to ensure that Hamas is not part of any postwar government, postwar reconstruction."

And the protests on the other side have been less than popular. In a YouGov/The Economist poll from May, half of American adults opposed the pro-Palestinian protests on college campuses. And in a May poll from Suffolk University/USA Today, just 30 percent of Biden voters supported them, while an additional 39 percent supported their goals but opposed their tactics. That might explain the cheers from Harris supporters when she clapped back at the protesters who interrupted her.

However Harris decides to address it, the Israel-Hamas war will probably continue to be an issue through the election. "I don't expect these disruptions and protests to stop unless people see what her policy position is going to be on this issue, and whether it will be significantly different from Biden when it comes to sending American weapons," Shahid said. Indeed, protests are planned for the Democratic National Convention next week.

At the same time, Harris must contend with a 76-year history of American foreign policy characterized by support for Israel and a public that is still mostly supportive of the country. It remains to be seen if Harris will be able to walk the line between these two passionate blocs.