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Undecided races of the 2024 election: Live results and analysis
We're tracking who will win the House and other outstanding contests.
The presidential race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris has been decided, but there are still several downballot races where the winner isn't yet apparent. Control of the House of Representatives is still up in the air, and while ABC News has projected that Republicans will win the Senate, the size of their majority is still TBD. Needless to say, both of these things will have major implications for how easy it will be for Trump to enact his second-term agenda.
However, it could be a while before we know who won these races. Many of them are in states like California, Arizona and Nevada that take days to count all their ballots. So we at 538 are settling in for the long haul with this live blog dedicated to all the outstanding races of the 2024 election. Join us for live updates, analysis and commentary until the last major race is decided.
Key Headlines
Bob Casey still has a path in Pennsylvania. A rather narrow one.
Looking at Pennsylvania's Senate race, Republican Dave McCormick leads Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr. by about 0.5 points, 48.95% to 48.44%, with 97% of the expected vote reporting. ABC News estimates that perhaps as many as 300,000 votes are left to be counted, however, and nearly 130,000 of those are in deep-blue Philadelphia. Some back-of-the-envelope math: If we assign the outstanding votes based on the current margins in those counties, Casey would end up leading by around 16,000 votes once all votes are reported. Now, we don't know just how those outstanding votes will actually break, and whether the real total left will be around 300,000 or a bit less or more — all critical aspects to this. But this does suggest that Casey might just be able to survive even as Harris lost to Trump in the presidential race.
Several new House races projected
ABC News projects that Democrats have won Indiana's 1st District and Washington's 8th District, while Republicans have won Arizona's 2nd, California's 3rd and California's 40th.
None of these projections are terribly surprising. Democratic Reps. Frank Mrvan and Kim Schrier were considered likely to win in Indiana and Washington, per our preelection forecast. Same with Republican Rep. Young Kim in California's 40th District and Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley in California's 3rd. And while a well-regarded pre-election poll had found Republican Rep. Eli Crane tied with Democrat Jonathan Nez in Arizona's 2nd, in the end, Crane ended up pulling it out.
Republicans flip Pennsylvania's 7th District in an upset
ABC News has projected that Republican Ryan Mackenzie will defeat Democratic Rep. Susan Wild in Pennsylvania's 7th District. The seat, which sits in the eastern part of the state, but to the north of the Philadelphia region, has been closely contested during Wild's three terms in office. 538's forecast gave Wild an edge coming into Election Day, giving her about a 7-in-10 shot of winning reelection. But Mackenzie leads by 1.4 points, 50.7% to 49.3% with 99% of the expected vote reporting.
Democrats hold Wisconsin's Senate seat
ABC News projects that Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin has won reelection in Wisconsin. With 99% of the expected vote counted, she has 49.4% and Republican Eric Hovde has 48.5%. That's an important win for Democrats, as this was one of Republicans' best remaining pickup opportunities.
Baldwin prevailed despite Trump carrying Wisconsin on the presidential level, making her just the second Senate candidate in the last 10 years to win a state at the same time that the opposite party's presidential candidate was carrying it. However, Trump only won Wisconsin 50% to 49%, so there were actually very few split-ticket voters in this race.